Real Madrid vs. Villarreal Prediction, Picks & Odds for Today's La Liga Match
Real Madrid look to continue their unbeaten start at the Bernabeu, and I’m backing them to make it a fourth successive home victory in my Real Madrid vs. Villarreal prediction.
Real Madrid are the clear -300 betting favorite for today's match (3 p.m. ET, ESPN) despite losing their previous La Liga game. I’m also featuring Kylian Mbappe and Vinicius Junior for the encounter.
Real Madrid vs. Villarreal predictions & best bets
See our experts' soccer picks.
| Best bets | Best odds | Wager (units) |
|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid win & Under 5.5 goals | -138 via BetMGM | 1 unit to profit 0.72 units |
| Vinicius Junior Over 0.5 assists | +180 via FanDuel | 0.5 units to profit 0.9 units |
| Kylian Mbappe Over 1.5 goals | +175 via FanDuel | 0.5 unit to profit 0.875 units |
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Real Madrid vs. Villarreal best bet
Check out all of our soccer betting analysis and expert predictions this season.
Real Madrid win & Under 5.5 goals (-138 via BetMGM)
Real Madrid have won all three matches at the Bernabeu by a combined 12-2. Only Barcelona have more home goals (14) in the early stages.
Villarreal are decent on the road, with a win, two draws, and a loss. However, their lone victory came against a reeling, second-from-bottom Malaga side. Real Madrid have beaten Villarreal four straight times, all of which had four goals or fewer.
I’m safeguarding my bet, as two of Real Madrid’s previous three games had five goals, and the same is true about two of Villarreal’s previous five.
🆚 Who will win Real Madrid vs. Villarreal?
Real Madrid have dominated Villarreal recently, winning the last four meetings. And Real Madrid is an entirely different beast at home, where they’ve lost two of the previous 22 La Liga matches.
Score prediction: Real Madrid 3, Villarreal 1
More Real Madrid vs. Villarreal expert picks
Vinicius Junior Over 0.5 assists (+180 via FanDuel)
Vinicius Junior has three assists in seven La Liga matches. While a pretty good return, his home production in the comfort of the Bernabeu has me convinced to back him. All three assists have come on home turf, one in each encounter.
If you’re looking to significantly increase your chances of winning, back Vinicius to score or assist. He scored three goals in the previous two home games against Villarreal. You can get those odds at -175, which implies a 63.64% probability.
Kylian Mbappe Over 1.5 goals (+175 via FanDuel)
Mbappe has been unstoppable at home, scoring seven goals in three matches. That includes a hat-trick against Real Sociedad in the home opener. He sat out France’s last international with a knee injury, but there are no injury concerns ahead of the match.
While I would have preferred to back Mbappe to score one goal, his odds are too short for my liking, priced at -260 (72.22%).
Mbappe has seven goals in seven La Liga matches, scoring at least one in four of them. The main reason I’m backing him to score two, though, is his recent form against Villarreal, whom he’s bagged five goals against in the previous three meetings.
Real Madrid vs. Villarreal key stats
| Statistic | Real Madrid | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| Record (domestic) | 5-0-2 | 2-2-3 |
| Recent form (all comps) | LWWWL | WWLLL |
| Goals for (La Liga) | 18 | 13 |
| xG (domestic) | 18.5 | 16.6 |
| Goals against (domestic) | 8 | 12 |
| xGA (domestic) | 7.7 | 9 |
| Average possession (domestic) | 52.5% | 61.7% |
Real Madrid vs. Villarreal odds
Real Madrid vs. Villarreal projected lineups
Here are the projected lineups for Real Madrid vs. Villarreal; subject to change:
| Real Madrid (4-2-3-1) | Villarreal (4-2-3-1) |
|---|---|
| Courtois (GK) | Gulacsi (GK) |
| Dumfries (D) | Mourino (D) |
| Konate (D) | Navarro (D) |
| Rudiger (D) | Veiga (D) |
| Carreras (D) | Cardona (D) |
| Tchouameni (M) | Comesana (M) |
| Bernardo (M) | Gueye (M) |
| Guler (M) | Akhomach (M) |
| Bellingham (M) | Moleiro (M) |
| Vinicius (M) | Pepe (M) |
| Mbappe (F) | Mikautadze (F) |
How to watch Real Madrid vs. Villarreal
- Date: Saturday, Oct. 10
- Kickoff: 3 p.m. ET
- Location: Bernabeu (Madrid)
- TV/Streaming: ESPN/Fubo TV
