Joe Burrow Player Prop Picks, Predictions Wild Card Weekend: Fade Bengals’ QB in Potential Slugfest?

Check out our best Joe Burrow player prop picks for Wild Card Weekend based on the top odds.

Last Updated: January 15, 2023 11:05 AM EST • 4 minute read

Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow does battle with the rival Baltimore Ravens for a third time. Read on for our Joe Burrow player prop picks based on current NFL odds.

The Cincinnati Bengals (12-4) earned the AFC North crown and the right to host the Baltimore Ravens (10-7) in Sunday night’s wild-card round matchup by beating Baltimore in Week 18. However, Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow has had quiet games both times he’s faced the Ravens this year. Will that trend continue on Sunday night?

Here are our best Joe Burrow player prop picks for the Ravens vs. Bengals Wild Card Weekend matchup (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, Caesars Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our NFL best bets, Wild Card Weekend against the spread power rankings, NFL upset picks for the first round of the playoffs, and Wild Card Weekend odds and lines. And make sure to go to our top NFL picks for Wild Card Weekend for links to every preview!

Joe Burrow Player Prop Picks for Wild Card Weekend

Joe Burrow Under 279.5 passing yards (-140 via DraftKings)
Joe Burrow Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (+150 via Caesars)
Joe Burrow interception - no (-114 via FanDuel)

Ravens vs. Bengals Odds

Joe Burrow Player Props

Burrow Under 279.5 passing yards (-140) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Though Baltimore grades out solidly in efficiency with the 11th-ranked pass defense DVOA in the NFL, the Ravens are still allowing more yards through the air than most teams. Baltimore has coughed up an average of 232.2 passing yards per game.

In two games against the Ravens this season, Burrow threw for 217 and 215 yards, respectively. The third game between the two divisional opponents is usually a recipe for a tight matchup. Given its deficiencies at quarterback, I look for Baltimore to establish the run and attempt to churn clock with ball control to keep things close. That script could have the effect of limiting Burrow’s opportunity to rack up a gaudy passing total.

Burrow has cleared FanDuel’s line of 265.5 passing yards (-113) nine times this season. But if you bump the threshold to one of the alternate lines of 279.5 at DraftKings, Burrow is just 7-for-16 in clearing the bar. Opting for the alternate line pushes this recommendation from a three-star to a four-star play.

Burrow Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (+150) ⭐⭐⭐

For me, the worst way to approach the prop on Burrow passing touchdowns is to wager Over 1.5 (or the 2+ prop at DraftKings) touchdowns. The most favorable odds across the board on such a prop are FanDuel’s at -180.

The juice is not worth the squeeze when you consider that Burrow had more games this season with exactly one touchdown pass (six) and with three-plus passing scores (six) than he did games with exactly two (five). My preference is to plant your flag on one of the plus-money options rather than taking the "safe" call of Over 1.5.

Burrow has delivered just one passing touchdown in each matchup against the Ravens this season. Given his talent, though, it’s difficult for me to recommend this as anything above a three-star play. If you like Burrow to have a big day, it’s not unreasonable to go the three-plus passing touchdowns route with +165 odds at DraftKings. I just wouldn’t waste my time with the touchdown pass prop options at -150 or higher.

Burrow to throw an interception: No (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Burrow has been prone to the occasional errant throw this season, delivering a pass into the arms on an opponent 12 times on the season. However, four of those interceptions came in the season-opener against a Pittsburgh defense that absolutely dominated the Bengals’ line that day.

Though he threw an interception in five road games on the year, Burrow’s ledger was much cleaner at home. Across his six home starts following the Week 1 debacle, Burrow managed to stay out of the interception column in five out of six outings at Paycor Stadium, including Week 18 against Baltimore.

FanDuel’s -114 odds on no Burrow interception are more favorable than at Caesars (-119) and BetMGM (-120), while DraftKings does not offer the option to bet Under on Burrow’s interception total.

Joe Burrow player prop picks made 01/15/2023 at 12:30 a.m. ET.

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Written by:
Brenden Schaeffer

Brenden has covered the St. Louis Cardinals as a credentialed baseball writer for KMOV-TV since 2016. His sports writing has appeared in outlets including the Austin American-Statesman and Columbia Daily Tribune. Since 2021, Brenden has co-hosted 'The Big Show' during the afternoon drive for KTGR, the ESPN radio affiliate in Columbia, MO. He has appeared on radio stations around the country, including KMOX, and hosts a daily St. Louis Cardinals podcast. In the sports betting content space, Brenden has covered the NFL, college football, NBA, and college basketball for outlets including SBR since 2019. For his football handicapping, Brenden looks to target NFL player prop markets as well as sharp underdog lines in college football. Brenden looks to reference FanDuel for his sports betting articles because of its consistently competitive odds on parlays. FanDuel's boost offerings are also customer-friendly, and its odds on the NFL Same Game Parlay articles he's written for SBR have historically been consistently competitive compared to other books.