Joe Burrow MNF Player Prop Bets: Monday Night Football
Monday Night Football was good to us last week as we went 5-0 on our various game and player prop wagers, and we aim to be just as profitable with our Joe Burrow MNF player prop bets.
- Burrow lost his first two starts for the second year in a row. Last season, he rebounded with a solid passing day and a win in his third start
- Burrow has a much better record and passing stats against NFC opponents
- The Washington Commanders' defense ranks at or near the bottom of the league in several statistical categories
- According to the Monday Night Football odds, the Bengals are the consensus home favorites
Before you lock in your Burrow props, dive into our Commanders vs. Bengals prediction and Commanders vs. Bengals MNF props.
Joe Burrow prop predictions for Monday Night Football
- Joe Burrow Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-140 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Joe Burrow Under 0.5 interceptions (-128 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Joe Burrow Over 261.5 passing yards (-113 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
NFL odds as of Monday and subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.
Joe Burrow player props
NFL picks made Monday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Joe Burrow Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-140) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Burrow, who remains among the MVP odds favorties, has a 104.5 career passer rating against NFC teams compared to a 96.0 passer rating against AFC teams. And this is an especially tasty matchup for Burrow, as Washington has allowed 23.89 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season, the most in the NFL.
A big reason for the Commanders’ defensive struggles is that they have one of the highest blitz rates in the league but rank bottom 10 in pressure rate.
Burrow had multiple touchdown passes in five of his final six starts last season, and I expect him to keep the momentum going from last week’s improvement.
This Over is juiced as high as -160 at FanDuel, carrying a 61.54% implied probability. Thus, I am taking advantage of bet365’s more reasonable price, where a winning $10 wager would profit $7.14.
Best odds: -140 via bet365 | Implied probability: 58.33%
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Joe Burrow Under 0.5 interceptions (-128) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
In two games against Baker Mayfield and Daniel Jones, Washington allowed 467 passing yards, six touchdowns, and forced zero interceptions. Forcing turnovers has long been an issue for the Commanders, as they have picked off the second-fewest passes since the start of last season.
They have the worst pass EPA allowed and the second-worst sack rate, so Burrow should be plenty comfortable standing in the pocket and dissecting the defense.
There is a seven-cent gap between FanDuel’s -128 odds and BetMGM’s -135 odds for Burrow to go without an interception. My $10 wager at FanDuel’s -128 odds would net $7.81 in profits if it cashes.
Best odds: -128 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 56.14%
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Joe Burrow Over 261.5 passing yards(-113) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
This went from a three-star play to a more confident four-star play when wide receiver Tee Higgins was declared active after missing the first two games with a hamstring injury.
To this point, Burrow has completed 57% of his passes to tight ends and running backs and just 43% to wide receivers.
Higgins will help in that regard while diverting some attention away from Ja’Marr Chase, which is important considering Cincinnati is 15-4 in games where Chase has 10-plus targets.
The Bengals face a Washington pass defense that has allowed the most passing yards and touchdowns of any team since the start of last season.
I am taking advantage of the low number at FanDuel now since this total may rise with Higgins active.
If they haven't already, other top sports betting will account for that, as Burrow’s O/U is as high as 267.5 at BetMGM. A winning $10 bet will profit an $8.85 profit.
Rodrigo Villagomez thinks Andrei Iosivas will be on the receiving end for a key early pass from Burrow in his first touchdown scorer predictions for Monday Night Football.
And Brenden Schaeffer believes Burrow will rack up the yardage too in his Commanders vs. Bengals MNF parlay.
Best odds: -113 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.05%
Commanders vs. Bengals odds
Monday Night Football game info
- Matchup: Commanders vs. Bengals
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where: Paycor Stadium (Cincinnati)
- How to watch: ABC/ESPN+
- Weather: 75 degrees, 60% chance of precipitation, wind 7 mph NW
- Favorite: Bengals (-350 via BetMGM)
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