Jarrett Stidham Compared to Nick Foles as Backup's Super Bowl MVP Odds Draw Attention

An injury to Bo Nix has pushed his backup into an intimidating position, but the comparisons between Jarrett Stidham and Nick Foles began immediately.

Stidham will start at home during the AFC Championship Game against the New England Patriots after Nix suffered a season-ending ankle injury.

The Broncos are the +5.5 underdog in our conference championship predictions, largely due to Stidham's presence. But there's a blueprint in the not-so distant past for prevailing as a backup under the brightest playoff spotlight. There's one for doing it against the Patriots, too.

🏈 Jarrett Stidham vs. Nick Foles

Every backup quarterback who's thrust into a daunting situation for a Super Bowl odds contender late in a season or during the playoffs will get the Foles comparison.

That's mostly coming from fans who are hopeful a promising season doesn't suddenly crumble, which was of course the fear in Philadelphia during Week 15 when a then-thriving Carson Wentz suffered a season-ending injury.

At least as far as experience is concerned, those good vibes are where the comparison ends. Foles made 58 starts during a career that lasted 11 seasons, as he was granted a lengthy journeyman backup phase due to his playoff brilliance. But he had logged far more playing time than Stidham even before Wentz went down.

Let's compare his production and starting time before that moment in 2017 to Stidham now.

⚖️ Backup QB tale of the tape

Experience is one of the most valuable assets for any backup quarterback. Every situation is different, but often a team looks to prop up a backup through other means, like a quality defense or running game, while asking the passer to make good decisions and minimize mistakes.

Foles holds the clear advantage in that regard while sitting on a mountain of starts when he was pushed into the playoff spotlight, whereas Stidham has barely been used. His last start came in Week 16 of 2023, and he's tallied a mere four total.

His counting stats are therefore far off Foles' numbers. However, a similar completion percentage and identical yards per attempt provide hope, especially with the way the Broncos are likely to deploy Stidham.

🦸 Can Jarrett Stidham pull off Foles' playoff heroics?

What sets Foles apart is that when it mattered most during the playoffs, he wasn't a game manager at all.

That's clear when we look back on how those contests played out during the 2018 postseason, with Foles frequently asked to do some heavy lifting, including throwing a whopping 43 times during the Super Bowl.

While duplicating that rare postseason dominance from a backup is an absurdly tough ask, there are similarities between the situation Foles was in then and what Stidham faces now.

Foles was in part able to rise up because of a fierce defense. Scores were kept low, with opponents combining for a paltry 17 points during the Divisional Round and NFC Championship game. That left a lower bar for Foles to clear, as he benefitted from a fourth-ranked scoring defense that season (18.4 points per game). A third-ranked rushing offense (132.2 yards per game) provided him with opportunities, too.

The Broncos' rushing offense is respectable this season, though it can't match the 2017 Eagles while ranked 16th (118.7 yards per game). But the defensive prowess will matter more as Stidham tries to outgun an NFL MVP odds candidate in Drake Maye. The Broncos enter Sunday after a season of allowing the third-fewest points per outing (18.3).

The challenge is massive, as outlined further in our Patriots vs. Broncos prediction, and especially on the road. But Stidham has erupted during a brief showing in the past, most notably throwing for 365 yards with a touchdown and an interception against the San Francisco 49ers in 2023 and their third-ranked defense. The Niners would go on to win the NFC.

Bottling up similar magic now makes him an intriguing long shot to take the Super Bowl MVP Award. Pounce with a sprinkle, because the price will shorten significantly if Stidham and the Broncos shock the Patriots. As our Corey Scott noted, the Jarrett Stidham Super Bowl MVP odds are in another galaxy compared to the other three passers taking the field on Sunday.

🏅 Stidham's Super Bowl MVP odds

The Super Bowl MVP odds for all players via our best Super Bowl betting sites show Stidham sitting far below Sam Darnold (+240), Matthew Stafford (+300), and Maye (+300).

Quarterbacks usually dominate this honor, but three other skill-position players even sit above Stidham (wide receivers Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Puka Nacua, and running back Kenneth Walker).