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Jalen Hurts NFL Player Props, Odds Wild Card Weekend: Predictions for Eagles vs. Buccaneers

Mike Spector

Last Updated: January 15, 2024 7:00 PM EST • 3 min 58 sec read.

Jalen Hurts looks to carry the Philadelphia Eagles back to another Super Bowl with a win over NFL Wild Card Weekend, though our best Jalen Hurts NFL player prop predictions based on the best NFL odds remain skeptical of his chances to outwit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The Philadelphia Eagles (11-6) concluded the 2023-24 NFL regular season on a precarious note, as many of their top playmakers suffered major injuries in the regular-season finale. That'll hurt their chances of overcoming the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8) in Monday's final game of NFL Wild Card Weekend.

Among the injured players is QB Jalen Hurts, who sustained an injury to the middle finger on his throwing hand last week but is expected to suit up. However, he will be without the services of top receiver A.J. Brown, who is dealing with a knee injury from Week 18. Additionally, fellow wideout DeVonta Smith is battling an ankle injury that had sidelined him earlier in the season.

Securing five victories in its last six games, Tampa Bay clinched the NFC South title for the third consecutive season, the first time the team has ever won three straight division titles. Head coach Todd Bowles, who has previously made life challenging for Hurts and company in the playoffs, aims to replicate that success once again. However, his quarterback is different this time around, and our Philip Wood discusses what we should expect under center in his Baker Mayfield player props.

Along with our Eagles vs. Buccaneers prediction and our Eagles vs. Buccaneers NFL player props, here are our best Jalen Hurts NFL player prop predictions for the Eagles vs. Buccaneers matchup over NFL Wild Card Weekend (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Jalen Hurts NFL player prop predictions for Wild Card Weekend

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Jalen Hurts player props

Jalen Hurts Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (-170 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

After practice on Thursday, Hurts told reporters that he hadn't thrown a football since last week’s loss to the New York Giants. Couple the injury to his middle finger with the fact that Brown - whose 1,456 receiving yards ranked fifth in the NFL - has been ruled out, and this figures to be a heavy running game from Philadelphia. 

Even when he had a healthy supporting cast, Hurts has thrown for multiple touchdowns in just one of the last six games. And since Week 11, Hurts ranks 25th or worse in completion percentage over expected, yards per attempt, and passer rating.

While the Buccaneers have allowed the eighth-most passing yards per game in that span, we would expect the Eagles to protect their injured quarterback with more rushing attempts. This is a steep price to pay, but it's still a better value than the -190 odds that BetRivers offers on the same wager.

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Jalen Hurts Over 0.5 interceptions (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Hurts is the worst starting quarterback in the NFL against the blitz, and he has gotten progressively worse under pressure with a passer rating nearly 10 points lower against the blitz this year (80.5) compared to last year (90.2).

In the last eight games, Hurts has a 66.3 passer rating against the blitz, while completing just 59.3% of his passes and averaging 6.0 yards per attempt and a 1-3 TD-INT ratio. And in last week's loss to the Giants, Hurts produced a season-low QBR (5) against the blitz, completing five of 11 passes for 41 yards and an interception. 

We expect the Buccaneers to force Hurts into at least one interception, as they blitz on 40.1% of opponent dropbacks - the third-highest rate in the league. And when these two teams met in Week 3, Bowles sent a blitz on 30 of Hurts’s 40 dropbacks (75%) while forcing two interceptions.

Hurts has thrown at least one pick in four consecutive games, and paying near-standard -115 odds at BetMGM for him to throw an interception on Monday is great value.

Jalen Hurts Over 34.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

Hurts has 15 rushing touchdowns this year and found the end zone on the ground in 11 of 17 games, making his anytime touchdown prop one of the most profitable plays of the season.

However, Philadelphia’s offense will be compromised by a passing attack without its top weapon, which should mean less red-zone trips and less opportunities to score from in close for Hurts. His anytime touchdown odds range from -115 to -143 across our best sports betting sites, which is just too short of a price given the circumstances.

Instead, we find more value in his rushing yard prop, as we expect the Eagles to emulate the same game plan that was so successful in their 25-11 win over the Buccaneers in Week 3. In that game, Philadelphia ran for 201 yards on better than 5.0 yards per carry, and Hurts contributed 28 yards on the ground in one of his eight games this season with 10-plus rushing attempts.

With the frequency that we expect Tampa Bay to blitz, Hurts should find himself forced to escape the pocket more, which would raise his ceiling for a massive game on the ground. Hurts has 35-plus rushing yards in seven of 17 games this year, but he also rushed for 34 yards twice, and the landscape is much different for this game given how the Eagles’ identity changes with Brown out.  

Jalen Hurts player prop picks made Saturday at 12:15 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”