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Baker Mayfield NFL Player Props, Odds Wild Card Weekend: Predictions for Eagles vs. Buccaneers

Philip Wood

Last Updated: January 15, 2024 7:05 PM EST • 3 min 22 sec read.

Baker Mayfield leads the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in their playoff opener as part of NFL Wild Card Weekend, and our top Baker Mayfield NFL player prop predictions based on the best NFL odds expect him to shine against the Philadelphia Eagles' slumping defense.

A year after splitting time with the Carolina Panthers and Los Angeles Rams, QB Baker Mayfield has clearly found his form in 2023. The veteran passer finished the regular season with 4,044 passing yards and 28 passing touchdowns — both of which rank in the NFL's top 10 — all while guiding the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8) to a 5-1 record over the final six games to secure a third straight NFC South title.

That said, he performed poorly earlier this season against the Philadelphia Eagles (11-6), who come to Tampa as road favorites in the final game of NFL Wild Card Weekend. Can Mayfield rebound in Monday's rematch, or will Eagles QB Jalen Hurts lead his team to victory? Our Mike Spector talks about what he expects from Baker's opposite in his Jalen Hurts player props.

Along with our Eagles vs. Buccaneers prediction and our Eagles vs. Buccaneers NFL player props, here are our best Baker Mayfield NFL player prop predictions for the Eagles vs. Buccaneers matchup on NFL Wild Card Weekend (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Baker Mayfield NFL player prop predictions for Wild Card Weekend

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Baker Mayfield player props

Baker Mayfield Over 231.5 passing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Mayfield’s first game against the Eagles was terrible. He finished 15-for-25 for 146 yards, one touchdown, and one interception in a 25-11 home loss in Week 3. The Bucs managed just 174 yards of offense in that game, as they were outgained by 298 yards.

That said, the Eagles’ secondary has played horribly down the stretch. They allowed the second-most passing yards in the league this season (252.7 YPG), and the defense as a whole has given up at least 25 points in six of its last seven games.

Meanwhile, Mayfield has thrown for at least 300 yards in two of his last four games and cleared this total in three of those four games. Though he was held to just 137 in last week's finale against the Carolina Panthers, they also have one of the best pass defenses in the league. With how the Eagles are playing right now, they have one of the worst.

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Baker Mayfield Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

Mayfield has thrown at least two touchdown passes in four of his last five games, and he threw at least two TDs in 10 of his 17 starts. Mayfield rarely throws more than two touchdown passes, so bettors will be sweating this prop until late in the game. However, this is a really good matchup for him.

The Eagles are allowing 2.1 touchdown passes per game this season. Mayfield was an above-average quarterback in the regular season as far as statistics were concerned, and we expect him to exploit Philly's main weakness at home in a plus-matchup.

There is very little discrepancy between this price across our best sports betting apps. With three major sportsbooks offering +110, you could consider waiting until closer to kickoff to see if any of the prices move to +115 or better.

Baker Mayfield Over 32.5 passing attempts (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

The Buccaneers tried to present a more balanced offensive attack late in the season, but they still finished 32nd in the league in total rushing yards. While they may be able to get Rachaad White involved against a run defense that isn’t as good as advertised, Mayfield is going to be the guy if the Bucs are going to win.

Mayfield attempted at least 33 passes in eight games this season, and he attempted fewer than 28 passes just once all season. That one bad performance was against the Eagles, but Mayfield still has a very high floor in this game - and considering this should be a closer game than it was in Week 3, he should throw the ball closer to his season average of 33.3 times.

Shop around our best sports betting sites before wagering, as the price for this prop is as high as -135 at Caesars - far worse than the odds we're getting at bet365. If you're looking for plus-money value, FanDuel is offering +106 for Over 33.5, but we’d rather take the lower number at this price.

Baker Mayfield player prop picks made Sunday at 10:33 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Philip Wood
Phil has covered sports betting since 2016, and he has been with SportsBook Review since 2022. He previously hosted the College Football Pick 'Em podcast for CanesInsight.com. He is always looking for value, especially on lines that just seem too good to be true. His belief is that if a line doesn't make sense just assume oddsmakers know something you don't. He also loves in-season futures. There is so much value to be had as the public overreacts weekly. Bettors tend to forget just how long NFL and college football seasons are. After all, the Green Bay Packers were 2-5 in 2023 and they made it to the Divisional Round. When deciding where to bet, it comes down to value over everything. +100 is always better than -110. An alumnus of The U, Phil always holds out hope that the next head coach will be the one who turns the football program around. He is also a diehard Detroit Lions fan and is willing to forgive Dan Campbell for forgetting that a kicker can be useful.