First Touchdown Scorer Predictions Today: Can Mahomes Come Through in Key AFC Clash?

I'm hunting down more juicy payouts with my first touchdown scorer predictions ftoday.

This week, while making my NFL predictions for Week 9, I'm eyeing a quarterback who's enjoying more success as a runner, two tight ends in appealing matchups, and a backup running back set for a prominent role on Monday Night Football.

🏈 First touchdown scorer predictions for Week 9

NFL first touchdown scorer picks for Week 9; odds subject to change.

💰 Best first touchdown scorer bets for Week 9

Our NFL player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.

🏈 Colts vs. Steelers first touchdown scorer prediction

🐴 Ty Warren (+900) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Tight ends look at the Pittsburgh Steelers and see a pleasant Sunday stroll to the land of six points.

The Steelers are becoming a smoldering mess in general defensively. But their last-ranked secondary is especially painful to watch while giving up 273.3 yards per game, far clear of the second-last Dallas Cowboys at 258.6 yards.

Those struggles very much include tight ends, as the Steelers are tied for the second-most touchdowns allowed to the position (six). Enter Ty Warren then, the fast-rising first-round pick who has scored in three of his last four games, and he's tallied 60-plus receiving yards five times this season.

Incredibly, the rookie leads all tight ends with 492 receiving yards, and he sits 16th overall leaguewide. What's key though is how much of his usage comes near pay dirt, as he's tied for 11th with nine red-zone targets, three clear of Michael Pittman to lead the Colts.

Putting $10 down on Warren to score first could lead to a $90 payout using the +900 betting odds from bet365, with an implied probability of 10.53%.

🏈 Chiefs vs. Bills first touchdown scorer prediction

🔴 Patrick Mahomes (+2000) ⭐⭐⭐

Patrick Mahomes is already nearing his rushing yards total for last year (280 yards now, and 307 yards last campaign). He's also scored four times on the ground, which is two more than the last two seasons combined. Mahomes has registered 30-plus rushing yards in three of his past four games too, and he's gone as high as 60-plus yards twice this season.

And critically for our purposes here, he's racked up 56 rushing yards in the red zone on 10 carries, showing his scoring isn't just a product of some quarterback-sneak flukes or goal-line weirdness. That red-zone yadage total ranks tied for 11th leaguewide and ahead of prominent running backs, most notably Bijan Robinson (44) and Saquon Barkley (32).

If Mahomes keeps chugging along as a rusher and scores first during a massive AFC clash against the Buffalo Bills, a $10 wager using the tasty +2000 betting odds from bet365 would translate to a $200 profit, with an implied probability of 4.76%.

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🏈 Seahawks vs. Commanders first touchdown scorer prediction

🟢 AJ Barner (+1300) ⭐⭐⭐

Similar to the Steelers, the Washington Commanders struggle against tight ends in the red zone and have surrendered five touchdowns to the position. Combine that with AJ Barner ascending fast while part of a Seahawks passing attack that ranks eighth leaguewide, and this is one of the most appealing long-shot first touchdown scorer predictions for Week 9.

Barner put up a dud in Week 7 with the Seahawks entering their bye, catching just one ball for seven yards. But that came right after a career-high 71 yards. And prior to that high watermark, he had scored four times in as many games. He has steady hands where it matters most, catching all five of his red-zone targets, converting three into touchdowns.

A $10 bet while leaning on the +1300 odds from DraftKings could result in a $130 profit, with an implied probability of 7.14%.

🏈 Cardinals vs. Cowboys first touchdown scorer prediction

🌵 Bam Knight (+850) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Injuries have decimated the Arizona Cardinals' running back room, with James Conner out for the year, Trey Benson out at least one more week, and Emari Demercado hobbled from an ankle injury and practicing on a limited basis.

They've turned to a committee approach between Michael Carter and Bam Knight. The latter has been easily on the high end recently while getting 17 touches to Carter's nine during Arizona's Week 7 loss to the Green Bay Packers.

His red-zone usuage is also key, as Knight has received seven carries near the end zone to Carter's four, turning that into two touchdowns across his last three games. Knight will take that usage and scoring touch against a Dallas Cowboys defense that's getting torched in every way, and particularly on the ground while allowing 146 rushing yards per game (29th).

If Knight scores the first touchdown on Monday night, a $10 bet at these +850 odds through bet365 would translate to an $85 payout on an implied probability of 10.53%.