First Touchdown Scorer Predictions for Sunday Night Football: Texans vs. Chiefs TD Picks

My Texans vs. Chiefs first touchdown scorer predictions for Sunday Night Football include Travis Kelce, a +2000 long shot, and more.

The Chiefs are a 3.5-point betting favorite over the Texans, with kickoff from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Mo., set for 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC). Let's dive into my SNF picks as part of our NFL predictions for Week 14.

First touchdown scorer predictions: Texans vs. Chiefs

See all of our experts' NFL picks for Week 14 based on the latest NFL odds.

Best Sunday Night Football first touchdown scorer bets

Search the best NFL player prop odds for any team or player across every market from legal sportsbooks in your area.

Nico Collins, WR, Texans (+950) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Nico Collins is seeing boosted odds since the Texans are underdogs - and thus less likely to score first - but there’s a lot of variance in this game, as it’s unclear how Kansas City’s offense will perform with so many injuries on the offensive line.

These +950 odds from DraftKings imply a probability of just 9.52%, though the reality is likely closer to 11%. Collins has scored a touchdown in two of his last three games, including cashing as the first TD scorer in a Week 11 road game against the Tennessee Titans.

A $10 ticket would profit $95 if Collins is the first player to reach the end zone. Meanwhile, Esten McLaren backs another Texans wide receiver in his Texans vs. Chiefs anytime TD scorer predictions.

Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs (+1000) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Tonight’s matchup is reminiscent of the Chiefs’ loss to Tom Brady’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Super Bowl LV. Stay with me now: the Chiefs were also dealing with key offensive line injuries yet still entered as a 3.5-point favorite. The most productive Chiefs player in that game? Kelce.

While Kelce didn’t score a touchdown in Super Bowl LV, he was targeted 15 times, catching 10 passes for 133 yards. He was Patrick Mahomes’ primary option, as the quarterback had to release the ball quickly. No other Chiefs player had more than 10 targets or carries. With Mahomes once again in a situation where he must get the ball out quickly, expect his veteran tight end to be the primary beneficiary.

These +1000 odds from BetMGM for Kelce to score first imply a 9.09% probability, meaning a $10 bet would profit $100 if successful. Our analyst Phil Wood, however, fades Kelce in his Texans vs. Chiefs player props. 

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs (+2000) ⭐⭐⭐

While Mahomes didn’t score in Super Bowl LV - while dealing with similar offensive line injuries - he found some success scrambling. The three-time Super Bowl champ carried the ball five times for 33 yards in that game, and tonight’s matchup should look similar, as Mahomes will have two options: get the ball out quickly or move the pocket.

And since the Chiefs will enter Sunday Night Football with a playoff-like level of intensity, as they are underdogs to make the postseason, this play is a derivative of the popular betting narrative to back Mahomes Over rushing attempts in important games. These +2000 odds from BetMGM imply a 4.76% probability, while some of the best sports betting sites have already shortened his odds to +1200.

A winning $10 ticket would profit $200 if Mahomes is the first player to score. Our analyst Mike Spector breaks down why he’s betting Mahomes Over his rushing yards in his Texans vs. Chiefs prediction.

Mahomes is also a key part of Brenden Schaeffer's Texans vs. Chiefs same-game parlay.

First touchdown scorer odds: Texans vs. Chiefs

See all of our NFL touchdown props for Sunday Night Football and more.

How to watch Sunday Night Football: Texans vs. Chiefs

• Date: Sunday, Dec. 7
• Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET
• Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, Mo.)
• TV: NBC