Early Week 1 Rookie Player Props Projections: How Will Ashton Jeanty, Cameron Ward, Travis Hunter, Perform?
As much as rookies anticipate their professional debuts, we're looking forward to the release of Week 1 player props at our best sports betting sites.
That hasn't stopped us from making some early Week 1 rookie player prop projections, featuring Cameron Ward, Ashton Jeanty, and Travis Hunter.
So, how will the first, second, and sixth overall draft picks fare on opening weekend?
βοΈ NFL Week 1 rookie player prop projections: Cameron Ward
Ward is faced with the unenviable task of lining up against the Denver Broncos in Week 1. The Broncos had the sixth-best pressure unit and 11th-best coverage unit last season, according to PFF, and feature last season's Defensive Player of the Year winner in Patrick Surtain II. They also allowed the third-fewest points per game (19).
If you want the most apt baptism of fire definition, Ward's debut is a good place to start. At least the game is at home - a subtle consolation.
π’ Ward's 2025 projections
According to ESPN, Ward is projected to finish with more passing yards (3,818) than Bo Nix (3,775), Jayden Daniels (3,568), and Caleb Williams (3,541) threw for in their rookie campaigns. His projected total of 3,818 translates to about 225 passing yards per game.
However, Ward faces a Broncos team that allowed the second-fewest yards per attempt (3.9) last season. In addition, the cream of last year's draft crop - Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix, Caleb Williams - all hit the Under on their passing yard totals in their debuts.
While Ward may get off to a slow start, I'm still predicting him to go over his yearly passing yards total, which is one of our NFL rookie bets to make now.
Ward is projected to finish the season with 23 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. Only Williams had fewer TD tosses last year (20). Ward's projected 14 interceptions would be more than last year's triumvirate, with Nix coming closest at 12.
π How did Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix, Caleb Williams perform in Week 1?
| QB | Passing yards set total | Passing yards | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Daniels | 210.5 | 184 | Under |
| Nix | 200.5 | 138 | Under |
| Williams | 239.5 | 93 | Under |
Williams and Daniels had their lowest passing-yard outputs of the season in Week 1, while Nix's 138 yards were his third-lowest.
Only Williams secured the victory, giving rookie quarterbacks a 1-9-1 record over the past six seasons in their debuts. Talk about a deterrent for those thinking of backing the underdogs on the moneyline at one of our best sports betting apps.
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π§ Ward projected Week 1 prop totals & best bets
| Prop | Projected total | Best bet |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 200.5 | Under |
| Completions | 20.5 | Over |
| Attempts | 31.5 | Over |
| Interceptions | 0.5 | Over |
| TD passes | 0.5 | Under |
- Ward will follow in the footsteps of last year's top rookie class and go Under his passing total, as debuts are often overwhelming for rookie quarterbacks. Also, he's playing against one of the best passing defenses and will be forced to be Captain Checkdown
- That said, I'd play the Over if the total on his passing yards is set below 200.5
- I feel he'll go Over on attempts and completions due to game script, with his team trailing late and having to increase his passing output
- The Broncos had 15 picks in 17 games last season, tied for the eighth-most. Their ball-hawking ways and defensive reads will force Ward into a mistake
- Like last year's trio, I don't expect Ward to throw a Week 1 TD pass against a Broncos team that only allowed 22 last season
π NFL Week 1 rookie player prop projections: Travis Hunter
Last year's Heisman Trophy winner could represent a once-in-a-lifetime unicorn. Will he live up to expectations and be in the running as an Offensive Rookie of the Year odds and Defensive Rookie of the Year odds contender?
First things first. How will Liam Coen deploy him in Week 1 against the Carolina Panthers? He should feature more at wide receiver, at least initially, so that's where I've focused my Week 1 prop projections.
π’ Hunter's 2025 offensive projections
ESPN has Hunter catching 80 passes on 121 targets for 967 yards and six TDs. Let's compare that to last season's rookie class:
| Player | Targets | Receptions | Yards | TDs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Thomas Jr. | 133 | 87 | 1,282 | 10 |
| Malik Nabers | 170 | 109 | 1,204 | 7 |
| Ladd McConkey | 112 | 82 | 1,149 | 7 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | 116 | 62 | 885 | 8 |
| Rome Odunze | 101 | 54 | 734 | 3 |
π How did last year's rookie class perform in Week 1?
| Player | Targets | Receptions | Yards | TDs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Thomas Jr. | 4 | 4 | 47 | 1 |
| Malik Nabers | 7 | 5 | 66 | 0 |
| Ladd McConkey | 7 | 5 | 39 | 1 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Rome Odunze | 4 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
As you can see, there was a wide variance among last year's rookie class in their NFL debuts. Marvin Harrison Jr. and Rome Odunze forgot the smelling salts, remaining on snooze for the duration, while Brian Thomas Jr. and Malik Nabers got their rookie seasons started in style.
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π§ Hunter's projected Week 1 prop totals & best bets
| Prop | Projected total | Best bet |
|---|---|---|
| Receiving yards | 50.5 | Over |
| Receptions | 4.5 | Over |
- I expect Coen to focus on acclimating Hunter to the offensive side of the ball first, especially as the defense should be able to cope without the Heisman winner at corner against what was a toothless Panthers offense for most of last season
- As he's facing a Panthers team that had the worst pressure unit and fifth-worst coverage unit last season, according to PFF, he should be freed up enough to enjoy a debut similar to what we saw from Nabers and Thomas. I'd play the Over to 53.5 yards
- Trevor Lawrence is excited about the prospect of throwing to his shiny new receiver, and I expect him to get the ball to Hunter frequently from the get-go. I still wouldn't play the Over receptions at anything above 4.5, though
β οΈ Week 1 rookie player prop projections: Ashton Jeanty
So much is expected from Jeanty in his first year with the Las Vegas Raiders, as we covered in our Rookie of the Year odds and prediction.
You can see why when diving into his body of work. The former Boise State Broncos running back won't have to wait long for a heavy workload with his new team, but how will that manifest in Week 1 against the New England Patriots?
π’ Jeanty's 2025 projections
ESPN has Jeanty pegged at 281 carries for 1,289 yards and eight TDs. He's also expected to amass 474 receiving yards on 62 receptions.
There isn't a ton of comparisons from last year's rookie running back class, with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' Bucky Irving coming closest. Irving had 207 carries for 1,122 yards and eight TDs. He added 47 catches and 392 receiving yards.
Irving kicked off his NFL career with nine rushes for 62 yards against the Washington Commanders. He also had two receptions for 14 yards.
π§ Jeanty's projected Week 1 prop totals & best bets
| Prop | Projected total | Best bet |
|---|---|---|
| Carries/Attempts | 15.5 | Over |
| Rushing yards | 73.5 | Under |
| Receptions | 3.5 | Over |
| Receiving yards | 26.5 | Under |
- Jeanty is projected to average 16.5 carries per game, and I expect the Raiders to set the precedent early, making defenses focus on their newfound formidable ground game. I wouldn't play the Over beyond 15.5
- With Mike Vrabel at the helm, the New England Patriots should be a tougher and more violent version of their former selves. They've bolstered their defense by signing defensive tackle Milton Williams, outside linebacker Harold Landry III, inside linebacker Robert Spillane, and cornerback Carlton Davis III
- I'm going with the Under on Jeanty's rushing yards total if it's around the projected 73.5-yard mark. I'd play the Under down to 70.5 yards
- I can see Geno Smith utilizing Jeanty out of the backfield and as an underneath option readily, putting the ball in the highly touted rookie's hands as much as possible. I'd play the Over to 4.5 receptions
β NFL betting FAQs
What does the spread mean in NFL betting?
The spread in NFL betting is a point handicap used to level the playing field between two teams. The favorite must win by more than the spread, while the underdog can win outright or lose by fewer points than the spread to cover.
What is an anytime touchdown scorer in NFL betting?
An anytime touchdown scorer bet means you're wagering on a player to score a touchdown at any point during the game (excluding 2-point conversions). Itβs a popular NFL prop bet with big potential payouts.
Do 2-point conversions count for anytime touchdown scorer bets?
No, 2-point conversions do not count toward anytime touchdown scorer bets. Only standard rushing, receiving, or defensive touchdowns qualify.
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