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Commanders vs. Eagles Early Picks, Predictions & Odds for TNF Week 11

Mike Spector

Last Updated: November 11, 2024 11:27 AM EST • 3 min 28 sec read.

Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels passes the ball against the Pittsburgh Steelers. We're backing Washington in our Commanders vs. Eagles early picks.
Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels passes the ball against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Photo by Geoff Burke via Imagn Images.

First place is on the line in the NFC East when the 7-2 Philadelphia Eagles host the 7-3 Washington Commanders as home favorites on Thursday Night Football in Week 11.

  • Philadelphia is coming off its first win at Dallas since 2017 and continues to climb the Super Bowl odds
  • The Eagles are 7-2 or better for the third straight season
  • Washington is coming off its first loss this season when scoring 27-plus points (5-1)

Our Commanders vs. Eagles early picks and odds recognize that the line did not change much from last week’s lookahead line. We use that to make our case of why Washington getting the points is the right play to make early in the week. 

I get further into this and have my favorite prop from the game in my Commanders vs. Eagles prediction.

My early Commanders vs. Eagles prediction: Commanders +3.5

NFL picks made Monday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Prediction: Commanders +3.5

Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%

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The lookahead line for this game in Week 10 was Philadelphia -3, and some of our NFL betting sites are still on the key number of three as of early Monday morning.

Those sportsbooks that have since moved off the key number to -3.5 are overreacting to an Eagles win over a Cowboys team playing their first game without Dak Prescott. 

Philadelphia may be out-scoring opponents 29.4-13.0 during a five-game winning streak, but all five of those wins came against teams with losing records.

Meanwhile, Washington should not be punished for losing a game it was in control of (it had a double-digit lead) to a Pittsburgh Steelers squad that was coming off a bye week.

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Commanders vs. Eagles live odds

See the NFL odds from our best NFL betting sites for every Week 11 game.

Moneyline

  • Eagles best odds: -165 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 62.26%
  • Commanders best odds: +150 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 40%

There is a big 13-cent gap between BetMGM’s -165 moneyline odds to back the Eagles and the -178 price at FanDuel on the high end of the market.

I expect BetMGM to align with more of its competitors given that the public is likely to view Philadelphia as Super Bowl contenders after having won five straight games. Meanwhile, a concerning trend for Commanders backers is that they have lost seven straight games as underdogs following a loss.

Spread

  • Eagles best odds: -3 (-118) via DraftKings
  • Commanders best odds: +3.5 (-110) via BetMGM

DraftKings is holding on as the only top sports betting site yet to move off the key number of three. But the -118 juice it charges to back the favorites laying a field goal suggests it is only a matter of time before the sportsbook aligns with the rest of its competitors.

Given that Philadelphia is coming off a 28-point victory over a division rival while Washington squandered a 10-point lead last week, it is more likely this spread gets to +4 before it moves back down to the lookahead line of +3. 

I would not put any Commanders backers off of waiting to see if +4 pops up, but there is already great value on the +3.5 points at -110 odds at BetMGM, considering other shops like FanDuel charge -118 in juice to back the underdogs with the hook.

Over/Under

  • Over best odds: 49 (-110) via Caesars
  • Under best odds: 49.5 (-110) via BetMGM

Just like the point spread, the Over/Under stayed the same as what the lookahead total was (49) at some of our top Super Bowl betting sites. However, the majority moved a half-point higher to 49.5, given that these two teams combined to score 61 points in their respective games last week.

Washington is the fifth-most profitable team to bet the Over (7-3), but this total likely would not reach 50 or higher if the projected forecast of showers (40%) worsens as we get closer to kickoff.

How to watch Commanders vs. Eagles

  • When: Thursday, Nov. 14
  • Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
  • Where: Lincoln Financial Field (Philadelphia, Pa.)
  • How to watch: Prime Video
  • Weather: 45 degrees, 40% chance of precipitation, wind 6 mph NE
  • Favorite: Eagles -3.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”