Commanders vs. Dolphins Prediction & Odds Today: NFL Week 11 Betting Preview
Wake up! It's a 9:30 a.m. ET kickoff this morning from Madrid at Bernabeu Stadium (FOX), and we have a Commanders vs. Dolphins prediction to read - or something like that.
Miami enters this matchup as a 2.5-point betting favorite after dismantling the Buffalo Bills, while Washington is fresh off a defensive coordinator change, with head coach Dan Quinn now calling the plays for his struggling unit. It's time to dive into our NFL Week 11 predictions and get the day started right.
✅ Commanders vs. Dolphins prediction & expert picks today
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🏈 Commanders vs. Dolphins preview & score prediction
This is a tale of two teams with opposite trajectories. The Commanders' defense hasn't been able to stop a baby over the last four weeks, allowing 44, 38, 28, and 44 points over that span. They have the fourth-worst scoring defense in football, and the fifth-worst red-zone defense. No matter how you slice it, the Commanders will be challenging the Cincinnati Bengals for the worst defense arguably this century.
Will Dan Quinn change the attitude of this defense by taking over play calls? Potentially. But the issues behind the unit stem much further from the defensive coordinator.
Enter the Miami Dolphins, who, after firing general manager Chris Grier (sure, they parted ways "amicably"), went on a scoring tear against the vaunted Buffalo Bills - a team they hadn't beaten in three years.
The Fins might have new life, with running back De'Von Achane running the show. I'm looking for the Dolphins' offense to continue their hot streak against a defense in desperation mode, and for Achane to lead the way.
Miami is averaging 350 yards of total offense per game over its last three - I don't see how the Commanders are going to get the stops they need to keep this one tight, especially when they are the worst cover team in the league at 3-7 ATS. Let's fade Washington as part of our Commanders vs. Dolphins predictions.
The Dolphins are 2.5-point favorites at the time of publish, with -115 betting odds implying a 53.49% chance Miami covers.
Score prediction: Dolphins 31, Commanders 17
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🆚 Dolphins vs. Commanders matchup to watch
De'Von Achane vs. Commanders front-seven
The Commanders are in for a challenge come Sunday morning, as the front-seven has given up 154 yards per game on the ground over the last three weeks. What was once supposed to be a formidable run-stopping unit headlined by Bobby Wagner and Frankie Luvu has become anything but, and Achane is on the verge of exploiting those struggles.
On the other side, the Miami offensive line has put together four straight games of quality football, with Achane the beneficiary while averaging over 5 yards per carry in three of those four weeks. It'll be tough to stop him in Madrid, and if the Fins are winning come the fourth quarter, prepare for a steady dose of the future Pro Bowler.
Best prop bet: De'Von Achane Over 78.5 rushing yards (-115 via BetMGM)
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📈 Commanders vs. Dolphins betting trends
| Commanders | Statistic | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| 3-7 | W-L record | 3-7 |
| 3-7 | ATS record | 5-5 |
| 5-4-1 | O/U record | 6-3-1 |
| 5.6 | Yards per play | 5.4 |
| 6.4 | Yards allowed per play | 5.9 |
| -0.6 | Turnover margin | -0.7 |
| 0-5 | Last 5 games | 2-3 |
| L, 44-22 vs. Detroit Lions | Previous result | W, 30-13 vs. Buffalo Bills |
🚑 Commanders vs. Dolphins injury report
🌤️ Commanders vs. Dolphins weather
This game will be played indoors at Bernabeu Stadium, so the weather won't be a factor for the Commanders vs. Dolphins on Sunday.
Check our NFL weather report for the latest forecasts and betting impacts for every game this week.
📺 How to watch Commanders vs. Dolphins
- Date: Sunday, Nov. 16
- Kickoff: 9:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Bernabeu Stadium (Madrid)
- TV: FOX
🔮 Expert Commanders vs. Dolphins predictions
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