Commanders vs. Dolphins Player Props: Best Bets & TD Picks for NFL Week 11

The NFL Madrid Game has arrived, so let’s dive into our Commanders vs. Dolphins player props for the action, which is scheduled for Sunday, Nov. 16 at 9:30 a.m. ET (NFL Network) at Santiago Bernabéu.

The Dolphins are a 2.5-point betting favorite for this matchup following their big win over the Bills. Make sure to check out the rest of our  NFL Week 11 predictions so that you don’t miss any winning slips!

✅ Commanders vs. Dolphins player prop bets

See all of our experts' NFL picks for Week 11.

💰 Best Commanders vs. Dolphins player props

⬆️ Jacory Crosky-Merritt player prop: Over 31.5 rushing yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

It’s been an up-and-down season for fantasy football darling Jacory Crosky-Merritt, but this week’s trip to Madrid presents him with a great opportunity. The Dolphins rank 23rd in run-stop win rate and have allowed 112.6 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs, one of the league’s highest clips.

Merritt comes into this game following a brutal scheduling stretch for the Commanders, in which they played the Chiefs, Seahawks, and Lions, all of whom throttled the Commanders and forced the team away from the run. With a closer spread this week (2.5), I expect Washington to stick with the ground game – and Merritt – for more reps.

The talented young running back ranks 13th among eligible players in yards after contact per attempt (2.3), so with Miami’s defensive line struggling at the line of attack, he should run wild in the second level and open field. Let’s back Merritt for Over 31.5 rushing yards at -110 (52.4%) on BetMGM. A $10 bet will yield a nice $9.09 profit.

⬇️ De’Von Achane player prop: Under 81.5 rushing yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

While De’Von Achane is among the best running backs at generating yards after contact, his rushing yardage prop line is just out of control. Sure, he racked up 174 yards on 22 carries versus Buffalo. He has still only gone Over this line in four of 10 games this year and is averaging 78 yards per contest, but his median performance (67) is much lower.

Achane has to generate yards after contact because Miami’s offensive line is bad. The Dolphins rank a dreadful 31st in run-block win rate (69%), which bodes poorly for this matchup versus a Washington defensive front that ranks fifth in run-stop win rate (33%). While Achane doesn’t often run straight up the gut anyway, it’ll be tricky for him to explode versus this defensive front. 

Let’s fade Achane following his massive 22-carry game a week ago. You can buy him to stay Under 81.5 rushing yards for -114 (53.3%) at DraftKings and score an $8.77 profit on a $10 bet.

6️⃣ Best Commanders vs. Dolphins touchdown scorer bet

🔥 Marcus Mariota TD pick: anytime touchdown scorer (+290) ⭐⭐⭐

Quarterback Marcus Mariota already has one rushing score this year in relief of Daniels, and Sunday’s matchup in Madrid is a good spot for him to get another. The Dolphins have allowed four rushing scores to quarterbacks this year, which is tied for second-most, along with 22.9 rushing yards per game.

While the former Oregon star may not have the same athleticism as he did earlier in his career, he is still averaging 5.3 rushing attempts across his four starts for the Commanders this year. Further, five of those carries came inside the red zone, and Washington’s quarterbacks have combined for the second-most red-zone carries on the roster.

It helps that we’re getting a good price for Mariota to find paydirt: Lock him in at +290 (25.6%) to score a $29 profit from a $10 bet at DraftKings.

📊 Commanders vs. Dolphins anytime touchdown scorer odds

See live NFL odds for every game in Week 11.

📺 How to watch Commanders vs. Dolphins

• Date: Sunday, Nov. 16
• Kickoff: 9:30 a.m. ET
• Location: Santiago Bernabéu (Madrid)
• TV: NFL Network/NFL+