NFL Coach of the Year Odds 2025: Are Rookie Coaches the Golden Ticket?

Five of the six Coach of the Year odds favorites enter the first season at the helm of their new teams, as we analyze which has the best chance of winning the coveted award.

Gary Pearson

Last Updated: July 23, 2025 10:22 AM EDT • 6 minute read

NFL Coach of the Year Odds, Prediction 2025: Coach of the Year Bet, First to Get Fired Pick — Pictured: Chicago Bears head coach Ben Johnson walks the field during rookie minicamp as we provide the NFL Coach of the Year Odds, Prediction. Photo by David Banks via Imagn Images

Five of the six Coach of the Year odds favorites are entering the year with new teams, three of whom are taking the reins of an NFL team for the first time.

Our NFL Coach of the Year odds and predictions explore Coach of the Year odds favorite Ben Johnson's chances, while featuring a leader who has fallen just short of winning it in the past.

We also predict which coach will be the first to be fired this season.

🔢 NFL Coach of the Year odds 2025

NFL Coach of the Year odds via FanDuel, one of our best NFL betting apps.

Coach	Odds (FanDuel)	Implied probability	Profit ($10 bet)
Ben Johnson	+650	13.33%	$65
Mike Vrabel	+750	11.76%	$75
Liam Coen	+1000	9.09%	$100
Aaron Glenn	+1000	9.09%	$100
Mike Macdonald	+1300	7.14%	$130
Pete Carroll	+1400	6.67%	$140
Dave Canales	+1400	6.67%	$140
Kyle Shanahan	+2000	4.76%	$200
Jim Harbaugh	+2000	4.76%	$200
Jonathan Gannon	+2000	4.76%	$200

🥇 NFL Coach of the Year odds: Are rookie coaches the golden ticket?

There will be five first-time head coaches during the 2025 season, including Johnson, Brian Schottenheimer, Liam Coen, Kellen Moore, and Aaron Glenn.

Rookie head coaches have won five of the last eight Coach of the Year Awards (Kevin O’Connell, Brian Daboll, Kevin Stefanski, Matt Nagy, and Sean McVay), offering a handful of compelling reasons to back one of the newbies.

Over the last decade, 24 of 40 first-time head coaches improved their team's win-loss record, with seven producing the same winning percentage as their predecessors. Only nine steered their team to a worse record.

🐻 NFL Coach of the Year odds favorite: Ben Johnson

Pictured: Chicago Bears head coach Ben Johnson speaks during minicamp as we provide the NFL Coach of the Year Odds, Predictions 2025. Photo by Kamil Krzaczynski via Imagn Images

📊 Best odds: +700 via DraftKings
📈 Implied probability: 12.5%

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Bad things happen any time you mix the word favorite with the Chicago Bears. Exhibit A is Caleb Williams, who entered last season as the clear Offensive Rookie of the Year odds favorite.

Reality struck faster than opposing defenses hit him.

This year will be different, right? Most signs point to yes. As the Detroit Lions' offensive coordinator, Johnson was instrumental in their recent success. His innovative ideas, fresh viewpoints, and philosophy are highly regarded, and he inherits a Bears roster chock-full of talent, youth, and potential.

Most importantly, they have taken grizzly bear strides in improving the league's worst offensive line. Williams was sacked a league-high 68 times last season, making the arrivals of Joe Thuney, Jonah Jackson, and Drew Dalman as anticipated as the head coach himself.

However, Johnson inherits a defense that was ranked 22nd in DVOA, and the Bears have the seventh-most difficult schedule. I'm fading Johnson until I see some early, tangible results.

🌉 NFL Coach of the Year best bet: Kyle Shanahan

📊 Best odds: +2000 via BetMGM
📈 Implied probability: 4.76%

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Last season for Kyle Shanahan's San Francisco 49ers was an unmitigated disaster. Talk about a fall from grace. That downward spiral is understandable given the catastrophic turn of events, headlined by preseason contract disputes and Christian McCaffrey's debilitating and season-altering injury.

Well, McCaffrey is back and, thanks to their woeful 6-11 season, they have the NFL's easiest schedule. Brock Purdy got paid, which the 49ers hope will lead to a more consistent and accurate year in the pocket.

I don't see Deebo Samuel's departure negatively impacting the team. He was an erratic route runner, which is one of his replacement's biggest strengths. Additionally, Demarcus Robinson will be satisfied with his fringe role on the team, which should help foster increased camaraderie among the players.

While the 49ers will be salivating at the prospect of their easier schedule, they won't love the amount of travel it involves. According to our NFL Fatigue Index, the Niners travel the second-most miles by a team without an international game.

Brandon Aiyuk's current injury situation is also slightly unnerving, but I don't see the pair of concerns as a sufficient deterrent, so I'm backing Shanahan to win his first Coach of the Year Award.

The best sports betting apps have reached a consensus, offering +2000 odds across the board.

🪓 First NFL head coach fired prediction: Kevin Stefanski

Best odds: N/A

Kevin Stefanski probably wants out of Cleveland more than owner Jimmy Haslam desires his head on a stick. While that might be true, Haslam won't need much convincing after he sees his team get off to a 0-4 start.

The Browns have the second-most difficult schedule and are beset by an unenviable starting QB battle featuring an over-the-hill 40-year-old, a shunned rookie, another rookie, and a Pittsburgh Steelers reject.

Stefanski, also featured in our first coach to be fired odds, is entering his fifth season in charge of the Browns, and the only way is down after winning Coach of the Year twice during his tenure in the Dawg Pound.

At least he'll leave with his head held high. The same cannot be said for a certain condemned quarterback. We'll have the first-coach-to-be-fired odds as soon as they become available at our best sportsbooks.

❓NFL Coach of the Year FAQs

Who is favored to win NFL Coach of the Year?

Chicago Bears head coach Ben Johnson is the favorite with odds of +650. Those odds carry an implied probability of 13.33%.

Who was the NFL Coach of the Year last year?

Minnesota Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell was named the NFL's Coach of the Year after entering the season with odds of +2000.

Who votes for the NFL Coach of the Year?

The NFL Coach of the Year is voted on by the Associated Press and is awarded to the coach who is judged to "have had the most outstanding season."

Who won the NFL's first Coach of the Year Award?

Detroit Lions head coach George Wilson won the first Coach of the Year Award, handed out in 1957.

Who won the most Coach of the Year Awards?

Don Shula won Coach of the Year four times, three with the Baltimore Colts (1964, 1967, 1968) and one with the Miami Dolphins (1972).

How many coaches won Coach of the Year more than once?

Thirteen coaches won the award at least twice, with Shula (4), Bill Belichick (3), and Chuck Knox (3) the only bench bosses to win three or more.

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Written by:
Gary Pearson

Gary Pearson has written professionally since 2010, focusing on sports betting since 2014. Before entering the sports betting space, he contributed to the Canadian Press, FanSided, the Hockey Writers, the Calgary Herald, and other publications. His work has also been featured in Sports Illustrated and Bleacher Report. Gary, who consumes sports like a blue whale devours plankton, has a penchant for writing predictions and analyses across several sports, including hockey, soccer, football, tennis, and more. He bets regularly, preferring single-game picks, props, and live betting. While there isn't a sport he has yet to dabble in, Gary prefers betting on soccer, hockey, and football. He studied at various post-secondary institutions, including the University of Calgary, SAIT Polytechnic, and Griffith University, located in Brisbane, Australia. Gary has a marketing degree and completed his bachelor's degree in journalism at Griffith University. He feels strongly that life experience is as essential as post-secondary education, helping formulate more accurate predictions and analyses. Gary believes that competing at a high level of amateur sports during his formative years helped him better understand an athlete's psyche and the nuances and complexities of a team's dynamic, both on and off the playing surface. He feels that knowledge is immeasurably important when offering his analytical expertise. He has lived on five continents and currently resides in Canada.