C.J. Stroud NFL Player Props, Odds Wild Card Weekend: Predictions for Browns vs. Texans

We're diving deep into the Houston Texans' quarterback's props markets to find the best plays with our C.J. Stroud player props based on the best NFL odds.

Andrew Brennan

Last updated: January 13, 2024 1:37 PM EST • 5 min read

We're analyzing whether the Houston Texans rookie quarterback can carry his stellar play from the regular season into the playoffs with our top C.J. Stroud player props based on the best NFL odds.

Houston Texans rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud was putting together an MVP-caliber campaign he was sidelined for two games with a head injury. Nevertheless, the 2023 No. 2 draft pick finished the campaign with 4,108 passing yards, 23 touchdown passes, and only five interceptions in 15 games.

Among those games he missed was the Texans' Week 16 loss to the Cleveland Browns. The two teams will kick off Wild Card Weekend with a rematch of that affair, and Stroud is back.

Will Stroud show that his Houston squad would have won had he played, or will this Browns defense overpower the rookie in his first taste of postseason action?

As part of all of our NFL predictions and to accompany our Browns vs. Texans prediction, here are our best C.J. Stroud NFL player prop predictions for the Browns vs. Texans Wild Card Weekend matchup (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

C.J. Stroud NFL player prop predictions for Wild Card Weekend

C.J. Stroud Under 21.5 passing completions (+102 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐
C.J. Stroud Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (-139 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐
C.J. Stroud Under 0.5 interceptions (-120 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

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C.J. Stroud player props

C.J. Stroud Under 21.5 passing completions (+102 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐

The name of the game for Stroud in his rookie campaign was efficiency. Stroud ranked second among all quarterbacks with 12.9 yards per pass completion and third with 8.2 yards per attempt. That's why, rather than attacking his passing yards market, we're opting for his completions total.

Stroud eclipsed this number in only seven of 15 games this season, while the Browns allowed opposing quarterbacks to go Over 21.5 passing completions in just five of their 17 contests.

If you read my Browns vs. Texans player props, you saw that I noted the data is pointing to a slower, more dragged-out game rather than the high-flying affair during the regular season. We're seeing that play out once again with Stroud's passing props.

Across five projection models, Stroud's average passing completions projection is 21.12. If you look at just that number and compare it to this total, it may not seem like a significant edge. However, when we run that projection against BetRivers' +102 odds on the Under, we're getting a little better than 11% positive expected value.

There aren't a ton of differences in these odds across our best sports betting apps, with DraftKings and Caesars at +100. The only one to avoid if you're playing the Under is FanDuel, which bizarrely (or, in reality, rightly) has it priced at -122.

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C.J. Stroud Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (-139 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐

This one is just as much about the odds as it is the projection.

First, we'll talk about Stroud himself. He's projected for just 1.34 passing touchdowns in this game, likely as a result of the aforementioned expected game script and Cleveland's stifling defensive unit. The Browns allowed more than one touchdown pass in only seven of 17 games this season.

However, more importantly, we're getting a significant edge on the rest of our best sports betting sites by playing the Under at BetRivers. Among them, FanDuel is once again most accurately pricing Stroud with its -160 price on the Under. BetMGM and bet365 are sitting at -155, Caesars is at -152, and DraftKings is at -150.

Pinnacle opened at -142 on the Under and is now at -164. This tells us that the price on Under 1.5 passing touchdowns for Stroud should be at least -150, and likely even shorter. Therefore, we're getting decent value by shopping around and finding these odds at BetRivers.

These bets are always a bit nerve-racking, as you'll be sweating it to the very end if the Texans are losing in the second half. However, I'm all about following the data, which tells us the Under is the right play.

C.J. Stroud Under 0.5 interceptions (-120 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

There was a brief period when we had a slightly better -118 price on this Under at Caesars, but it moved to -127 there and this is now the best price. This prop is still showing good value, but I'd leave it alone if it reaches -125.

Similar to the passing touchdowns prop, Stroud Under 0.5 interceptions opened at much longer odds at Pinnacle than the price that's now available. It's moved from -115 to -135 since Wednesday, signifying some sharp action on the Under.

Stroud's interception projection is an absurdly low 0.27, the lowest among any quarterback on Wild Card Weekend.

His ability to take care of the ball during the regular season could very well not translate to the playoffs, as no one knows how he'll handle the nerves. However, we aren't in the predicting-the-future business and will instead follow the data.

Not only are we getting a relatively good price on this prop, but Stroud's projection suggests there's a strong probability he avoids an interception.

All of this equates to an efficient - though perhaps slightly underwhelming - playoff debut for the rookie signal-caller.

C.J. Stroud player prop picks made Thursday at 2 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
Andrew Brennan

Andrew Brennan is a publishing editor for Sportsbook Review. He also heads the website’s MLB coverage, from the various futures markets to daily picks. Andrew believes a math-based approach is the best way to enjoy long-term success in sports betting, and he’s spent the better part of the last year fine-tuning his own process for MLB, NBA, and NFL picks. Andrew uses eight different sportsbooks to find the best odds available and various projection models to gather as much information as he can. His most used sportsbooks are bet365, FanDuel, and theScore Bet. When it comes to daily projection models, he regularly references NumberFire across all sports, as it’s one of the best free tools available. In terms of which daily markets Andrew attacks, he almost exclusively bets on pitcher strikeouts for baseball. When the winter rolls around, you’ll see him providing more variety when it comes to the NBA (points, assists, rebounds) and NFL (almost any offensive-based player prop). He used these tools to go +150 units in 2023. Andrew is also a passionate fantasy sports player. He’s played fantasy football, fantasy Premier League, and fantasy baseball for the last decade. He graduated from Durham College with his diploma in journalism after earning his degree in law from Carleton University. He’s worked in sports media since early 2017, first contributing at FanSided before moving to theScore. He joined SBR in 2022.