Chiefs vs. Cowboys Prediction & Opening Odds for Thanksgiving: NFL Week 13

My Chiefs vs. Cowboys prediction breaks down a matchup of two teams coming off thrilling walk-off three-point victories last week. 

The opening odds have Kansas City as the 3.5-point road betting favorite for this Thanksgiving Day game, which kicks off from AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, at 4:30 p.m. ET (CBS/Paramount+). My early picks back the Chiefs off their victory over Indianapolis, which brought their playoff chances to 67%. It’s all part of our NFL Week 13 predictions.

🏈 Early Chiefs vs. Cowboys prediction & betting preview

Stay ahead with the rest of our early NFL picks for Week 13.

🔴 Chiefs -3.5 (-105) ⭐⭐⭐

Dallas is coming off a victory over the defending Super Bowl champions in which it tied its largest comeback (21 points) in franchise history. But Kansas City’s comeback from 11 points down in the fourth quarter last week was even more impressive, considering how it dominated the eight-win Colts team down the stretch.

The Chiefs out-scored Indianapolis 14-0 in the fourth quarter and overtime, while out-gaining the Colts 236-18 in that span. Kansas City’s defense held Indianapolis to just five first downs after halftime, and at one point forced four straight three-and-outs.

With last week’s win, Dak Prescott now is 22-2 at home against NFC East opponents, winning 19 straight divisional home starts. But against all other divisions, he is 24-17-1, with a 2.9 touchdown-to-interception ratio (lower than his 3.6 touchdown-to-interception ratio at home against divisional opponents entering last week).

FanDuel is one of the only best sports betting sites at lower than -112 (52.83% implied odds) to lay the 3.5 points. At -105 odds, my $10 wager would net $9.52 in profits if Kansas City covers the spread.

📊 Live Chiefs vs. Cowboys odds: Week 13

See the latest NFL odds for every game in Week 13. 

🔢 Chiefs vs. Cowboys opening odds

• Moneyline: Chiefs -235 | Cowboys +190
• Spread: Chiefs -5.5 (-110) | Cowboys +5.5 (-110)
• Over/Under: Over 47.5 (-110) | Under 47.5 (-110)

↔️ Chiefs vs. Cowboys line movement

This line is down two points from a lookahead line of -5.5, but I am not sure why. Granted, Dallas came back from 21 down to beat Philadelphia, but the Eagles suffered several injuries on defense. Meanwhile, Kansas City beat a team that entered the week tied for the AFC’s best record. 

While currently at 3.5 across the market, the spread has much more of a likelihood to reach -4 or higher than to head the other direction towards the key number of three, given how public of a team the Chiefs are.

Compared to the point spread, the O/U skyrocketed even more from the lookahead line, with all of the best sports betting apps in unison with the 52.5-point total.

That jump is curious, and the current total is likely the highest it will be all week, considering neither the Chiefs nor Cowboys games topped 45 combined points in Week 12. 

📈 Chiefs vs. Cowboys trends & betting notes: Thanksgiving

• This is the second of four straight games for Dallas against a team that won 14 or more games the previous season. The Cowboys will be the first team in NFL history to play three such consecutive games
• Dallas won and covered back-to-back Thanksgiving games for the first time since 2008-09. The Cowboys are however just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 Thanksgiving games dating back to 2011 
• The Chiefs are now 1-5 in one-score games this year, but had won 17 consecutive one-score games prior to the start of this season
• Mahomes’ last seven starts in games with a total of 50-plus points have cashed the Under

📺 How to watch Chiefs vs. Cowboys: Thanksgiving

• Date: Thursday, Nov. 27
• Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. ET
• Location: AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
• TV: CBS/Paramount+