Chiefs vs. Bills Prediction & Odds: NFL Week 9 Betting Preview
Fierce rivals and two of the AFC's best meet at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y., with my Chiefs vs. Bills prediction backing Josh Allen to continue his regular-season dominance over Patrick Mahomes.
The Bills are the 1.5 or 2-point home betting underdog for Sunday's game (4:25 p.m. ET, CBS), and my Week 9 NFL predictions pick a side and a favorite prop from its quarterback.
📊 Chiefs vs. Bills odds: NFL Week 9
See the latest NFL odds for every game in Week 9.
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✅ Chiefs vs. Bills expert picks
See our experts' NFL picks for every Week 9 game.
💵 Chiefs vs. Bills best bets
🏈 Chiefs vs. Bills preview & score prediction
Allen and the Bills are one of the only teams that know how to solve the Chiefs, at least in the regular season. Allen is 4-1 against Mahomes in the regular season, which includes an impressive 30-21 home victory last year.
Chiefs' running back Isiah Pacheco won't be available after spraining a knee ligament, allowing the Bills' defense to focus on stopping the pass, which they are the 10th-best at via DVOA.
The Chiefs haven't played on the road since their 31-28 Week 5 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars, their only loss in their last five games. Kansas City has only played two actual away games, with the lonesome victory coming against a lacklustre Russell Wilson-led New York Giants.
The other classified away game occurred in Brazil, where the Chiefs lost to the Los Angeles Chargers.
Bills' dominance at Highmark
Before the outlier loss to the New England Patriots, the Bills were 10-0 outright in the last 10 regular-season games at Highmark Stadium.
The Bills are rarely the home betting underdog. It's happened only twice since the start of last season, both of which were wins against the Baltimore Ravens.
Caesars and BetMGM are the only sports betting sites offering the Bills at +2, with the others at +1.5. Caesars provides the best price (-108), which carries a 51.92% implied probability. A winning $10 bet will profit $9.26.
✅ Score prediction: Bills 24, Chiefs 20
💡 More NFL predictions for Week 9
Want more NFL betting advice? Check out all of our NFL analysis and expert predictions for every game this week.
🆚 Key matchup to watch
Josh Allen vs. Chiefs defense
The Chiefs' defense hasn't allowed more than 210 passing yards against since the first game of the season. They have the third-best pass defense in terms of EPA per play and allow the third-fewest passing yards against per game (177.8).
Meanwhile, Allen, who has fallen off the pace in our Clutch Factor QB power rankings, has only hit the Over on this total twice, one of which was all the way back in Week 1 against the Ravens. The Bills will try their utmost to stick with what works, which is a balanced attack that includes a heavy dose of James Cook.
If things go according to plan, Allen won't be forced to try to air it out continually against such a solid defensive unit. BetMGM offers the highest total (239.5 yards), and its -115 odds are comparable to DraftKings' -111 at the high end of the market. DraftKings, however, has a much lower 232.5-yard total.
A winning $10 bet at BetMGM will profit $8.70.
✅ Best player prop bet: Josh Allen Under 239.5 passing yards (-115 via BetMGM)
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📈 Chiefs vs. Bills betting trends
| Chiefs | Statistic | Bills |
|---|---|---|
| 5-3 | Record | 5-2 |
| 5-3 | Against the spread | 3-4 |
| 3-5 | Over/Under (total) | 4-3 |
| 5.8 | Yards per play | 6.1 |
| 5.3 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4 |
| +0.6 | Turnover margin | +0.3 |
| 4-1 | Last 5 games | 3-2 |
| W, 28-7 vs. Commanders | Previous result | W, 40-9 vs. Panthers |
🚑 Chiefs vs. Bills injury report
🌤️ Chiefs vs. Bills weather
The temperature will be crisp at kickoff (44 degrees) and throughout the game, but that's nothing new for either team. The conditions will be good otherwise, with wind gusts of only 9 mph. There is a 10% to 20% chance of precipitation, but not enough to change the complexion of proceedings.
Check our NFL weather report for the latest forecasts and betting impacts for every game.
📺 How to watch Chiefs vs. Bills
- Date: Sunday, Nov. 2
- Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET
- Where: Highmark Stadium (Orchard Park, N.Y.)
- TV: CBS
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