NFL Playoff Odds & Predictions: Can Chiefs, Cowboys Survive a Loss on Thanksgiving?

The Kansas City Chiefs (6-5) and Dallas Cowboys (5-5-1) both enter their Thanksgiving matchup today at 4:30 p.m. ET (CBS) with Super Bowl aspirations and razor-thin margins to qualify for the postseason. And the latest NFL playoff odds suggest only one of these two sides can afford a loss and stay in the hunt for the Lombardi Trophy.

Below, we break down the latest playoff odds for the Chiefs and Cowboys while offering our predictions for both teams to make the postseason ahead of their clash at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, as part of our NFL Thanksgiving predictions.

📊 Chiefs playoff odds entering Thanksgiving: NFL Week 13

See the latest NFL odds and all of our experts' NFL picks for Week 13.

All season long, there has been a sense of inevitability that the Chiefs would turn things around after an 0-2 start and eventually make the playoffs - something that has happened only about 10% of the time since the merger in 1970.

Sure enough, they rallied to win five of their next six games, but a 1-2 run over their last three contests has them staring down the potential for a .500 record if they lose today to the Cowboys. That could complicate their path to the postseason and snap a streak of seven consecutive trips to the AFC Championship round.

🔮 Will the Chiefs make the playoffs?

At a glance, these odds don't look particularly favorable for those betting on the Chiefs' playoff streak to continue - most advanced models give them a roughly 60% chance of clinching a playoff spot, and the betting market has that inflated to 70%.

When digging into the details, it's easier to make the case for Kansas City to finish strong after facing the NFL's toughest schedule to this point and still winning six of 11 games. Two of the Chiefs' biggest challengers for the final AFC wild-card spot (Chargers, Texans) have to travel to Arrowhead Stadium over the next two weeks, and their only two road games left are against two of the league's worst teams (Titans, Raiders).

Kansas City essentially needs to win four of its next six games, including at least one against Los Angeles or Houston, to remain in position for one of the AFC playoff spots. And with Patrick Mahomes leading the way, it's hard for me to bet against that.

Prediction: Chiefs to make the playoffs (-220 via DraftKings)

📊 Cowboys playoff odds entering Thanksgiving: NFL Week 13

The path to the postseason is murkier for the Cowboys, who sit just a half-game back from the Chiefs in the overall NFL standings but have to contend with a much more competitive wild-card field in the loaded NFC playoff race.

Even after rallying for a stunning comeback upset win over the Eagles last week, Dallas features an implied probability of roughly 15% across the best NFL betting sites to make the playoffs for the first time in three seasons. Even that might be generous with most advanced models giving the Cowboys around a 10% chance (or worse).

🔮 Will the Cowboys make the playoffs?

If the season restarted today, Dallas would likely be among the favorites to make the postseason in the NFC with an elite passing offense and a rebuilt defense following the blockbuster midseason trade for defensive tackle Quinnen Williams.

Unfortunately for this group, those five losses (and one tie) through its first 11 games complicate the path ahead. The Cowboys face a tricky remaining schedule, but only one of their remaining opponents sit ahead of them in the NFC playoff standings, so they'll need plenty of help to eventually clinch one of the final wild-card spots.

That makes it hard for me to justify a bet at the current market for the Cowboys to make the playoffs. Based on the latest postseason projections, there is actually value on Dallas to miss the playoffs at BetMGM, which is offering -750 odds with an 88.24% implied probability - just shy of the 90% chance projected by the top playoff models.

Prediction: Cowboys to miss the playoffs (-750 via BetMGM)