Broncos vs. Jaguars Picks, Predictions Week 8: Back Russ to Cook in London
Two 2-5 teams look to get their seasons back on track, when the Denver Broncos face the Jacksonville Jaguars in London Sunday morning.
The Broncos stumbled out of the gate to a 2-5 record, watching an unrecognizable quarterback Russell Wilson struggle for six games before he was held out of a Week 7 loss due to injury.
The Jaguars surely had higher hopes for year two under starting QB Trevor Lawrence, and despite some good efforts find themselves with five losses of their own. Something’s got to give between these two teams.
Here are our NFL Week 8 Broncos-Jaguars picks (odds via Caesars Sportsbook and BetMGM; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out our Week 8 NFL best bets and all of our top picks.
Broncos vs. Jaguars Game Info
- Date: Sunday, Oct. 30, 9:30 a.m. ET
- TV: ESPN+
- Location: Wembley Stadium, London, England
- Weather: 62 degrees, partly cloudy
Broncos vs. Jaguars Odds
Broncos vs. Jaguars Odds Analysis
The opening line was initially Jacksonville -4 before some Broncos love came in after it was confirmed quarterback Russell Wilson would play. DraftKings reported a whopping 70% of spread bets coming in on the Jags, but just 54% of the handle on the favorites. The line now sits at 2.5 points across the board.
The total jumped up slightly from 40 points to 40.5, but 60% of bets and 66% of the handle at DK is on the Under.
Broncos vs. Jaguars Picks
Broncos vs. Jaguars ATS Pick
Broncos +2.5 (-107) ★★★★★
I’m not saying the Broncos are due for their luck to turn around, but this seems like a better team than their 2-5 record would indicate. Denver has a defense ranked third in DVOA, third against the pass and 18th against the run.
Jacksonville does like to run, doing so 42.51% of the time, an NFL 12th, but there’s hardly a real discrepancy between airing it out and keeping it on the ground. In fact, the Jaguars ran just 21 times in their loss to the New York Giants last week, and attempted 44 passes.
Have faith in Denver's defense to do its job. While the Broncos' offense hasn’t been very good, the Jags let opponents get an average 238.1 passing yards per game, ranked 20th in the NFL, and convert at a 44.32% clip on third down.
All in all, this team is 17th in yards allowed per game and should succumb to a somewhat-decent Broncos rushing attack. It also helps Denver that Jacksonville cornerback Shaq Griffin will miss this game.
Broncos vs. Jaguars O/U Pick
Under 40.5 (-107) ★★★
When it comes to defense and rushing, expect this game to go Under. It’s hard to keep betting the Under in Broncos games, considering Vegas bookies will eventually get these right, but it’s pretty ridiculous that the Under for Denver matchups is now 6-1.
That’s simply life when you have one of the football's best defenses and an O-line that can’t move the ball and convert on third downs. Jacksonville is just 3-4 to the Under, but has only averaged 16.7 points per game in the last three.
I think you’ll just see a bunch of runs, a bunch of punts, and few touchdowns.
Broncos vs. Jaguars Prop Pick
Wilson over 12.5 rushing yards (-105) ★★★★★
Wilson is simply a different quarterback these days. His arm is letting him down, and he’s realized this over the last four weeks. Wilson has gone for at least 17 yards in all of those contests after rushing three times for five yards in his first two games of the season.
In fact, he’s now gone for 24.7 rushing yards per game over the last three and carried the ball over four times per game in the last four contests.
Wilson’s going to find it pretty easy to gash this poor Jaguars D on the ground given the gameplan should be to run the option all afternoon long.
Where to Bet on Broncos vs. Jaguars Picks
Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:
Broncos-Jaguars picks made 10/28/2022 at 5:39 p.m. ET
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