Bills vs. Broncos Prediction, Picks & Best Bets: NFL Divisional Round
Denver looks to live up to its No. 1 seeding in Saturday's Divisional Round at Empower Field at Mile High (4:30 p.m. ET, CBS), but I'm backing Buffalo to advance to the AFC Championship for the second consecutive season in my Bills vs. Broncos prediction.
The line has flip-flopped all week, with the Broncos the 1.5-point betting favorite. Denver won 13 of the previous 14 and is on a nine-game winning streak in matchups decided by one score. While an impressive run, I have faith in the battle-tested Josh Allen, who usually saves his best for this time of year. The opinion below is part of our comprehensive NFL Divisional Round predictions.
🏈 Bills vs. Broncos prediction: NFL Divisional Round
See the latest NFL odds and our experts' NFL picks for every game this postseason.
| Predictions | Best odds | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Bills ML | -102 via FanDuel | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Under 46.5 | -115 via FanDuel | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Josh Allen anytime TD | -105 via FanDuel | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
💰 Bills vs. Broncos best bet: Bills ML (-102) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Follow all of our NFL analysis and betting advice for the 2026 NFL playoffs.
This game should come down to the fourth quarter, and there's nobody I'd rather have under center than Allen, who is 8-2 in the playoffs against teams not named the Kansas City Chiefs.
He ranks first in several key statistical categories and is No. 1 in my NFL QB ratings. While Bo Nix will one day have an impressive playoff record, the Bills will take advantage of the sophomore's inexperience.
Buffalo's defense is at best mediocre, and while its second-worst run-stop is concerning, Denver's middling ground attack isn't strong enough to dominate.
Score prediction: Bills 23, Broncos 20
🙌 Best Bills vs. Broncos touchdown scorer prediction: Josh Allen (-105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
See all of our NFL touchdown props for the 2026 NFL playoffs.
Allen scored four TDs in the last three playoff games, punching it in twice against the Jacksonville Jaguars last week. I mean, come on, did you see his 10-yard tush push to set up the game-winning score? Brute force combined with unparalleled willpower facilitated it.
Allen has eight TDs in the previous seven playoff games, and with so much on the line, he'll be at his best again. Even the stingy Denver defense won't be able to stop him from hitting pay dirt.
📊 Bills vs. Broncos odds: NFL Divisional Round
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📈 Bills vs. Broncos betting trends: NFL Divisional Round
| Bills | Statistic | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| 13-5 | W-L record | 14-3 |
| 9-9 | ATS record | 7-9-1 |
| 9-8-1 | O/U record | 7-10 |
| 5.9 | Yards per play | 5.3 |
| 5.3 | Yards allowed per play | 4.5 |
| 0.1 | Turnover margin | -0.2 |
| 4-1 | Last 5 games | 4-1 |
🚑 Bills vs. Broncos latest injuries
🌤️ Bills vs. Broncos weather: Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET
Follow our NFL weather report for the latest forecasts for every playoff game.
Both teams should consider themselves fortunate, as the weather looks set to cooperate. The temperature at kickoff is expected to be a pleasant 51 degrees, with a light breeze capped at 4 mph. There's only a 4% chance of precipitation, setting up perfect January conditions in the Mile High City.
📺 How to watch Bills vs. Broncos: NFL Divisional Round
- Date: Saturday, Jan. 17
- Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Empower Field at Mile High (Denver)
- TV: CBS
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