Bet Baker Mayfield for NFL MVP Before MNF vs. Lions: Why Bucs QB Could Overtake Allen, Mahomes
We are officially at a crossroads in the NFL MVP odds race between Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Baker Mayfield.
How do we navigate the three-horse race before Week 7 officially kicks off? Let's dive into why you should bet Mayfield for NFL MVP before Monday Night Football - and fast.
📊 NFL MVP odds before Week 7
Latest NFL odds updated live in real time from our best NFL betting sites.
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🕵️♂️ NFL MVP odds: The case for Mayfield over Mahomes, Allen
⛵️ Baker Mayfield (+2500 ➡️ +350)
Nobody has seen a jump in NFL MVP odds quite like Mayfield, and for good reason. Prior to Week 1, you could find No. 6 as deep as +2500 at our best sports betting sites. However, after leading the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to four comeback wins through six weeks, he's now just +350 to win the award and owns the most fourth-quarter comebacks of any quarterback in the last two years.
The one knock on Mayfield for me? He doesn't have a win against an elite team this year. Through six weeks, he's beaten the Atlanta Falcons, Houston Texans, New York Jets, Seattle Seahawks, and San Francisco 49ers, with his lone loss coming against the Philadelphia Eagles.
Voters love a good narrative, too. Don't get it twisted: Mayfield was a castoff and was told to retire by numerous talking heads years ago, only to inject himself into the MVP conversation in 2025. He's top five in passing yards, touchdowns, passer rating, and has just one interception to his name through six weeks. He's leading the most exciting offense in football right now, and has a fire and attitude about him that can't be replicated.
🤑 Why you should bet on Baker Mayfield NOW
The only thing that will remedy the discourse around the quality of his wins and shoot his odds even further toward favorite status is a victory against the high-flying Detroit Lions on Monday Night Football. Not only will it be a win against an elite team, but it will also be under the bright lights of prime-time football, and without the services of Bucky Irving and Chris Godwin. With Allen on a bye week, you may never see odds this long again for Mayfield.
📊 Allen, Mahomes swap spots following Week 6
For the first time since before the start of the season, Mahomes overtook Allen on the NFL MVP odds. The reason being? Yes, an elite win against the Lions. Mahomes threw for 257 yards and three touchdowns, taking down Detroit on Sunday Night Football. All this while Allen and the Bills struggled in Atlanta on Monday Night Football, taking a 24-14 loss and moving their record to 4-2.
Mayfield has the chance to follow that same path to surpassing Allen this week, with the once-heavy favorite on a bye following back-to-back losses.
⛔ Pass on Allen for one more week
Not only does Allen need help, both on defense and inside his receiver room, but the Bills are on a bye this week, which means his odds will likely only get longer after watching Mayfield and Mahomes play. The best time to bet on Allen is following the bye week, once the dust has cleared. If you believe in him and the Bills, he'll still have games with the Chiefs and Buccaneers on deck in November, which will make or break his case.
If you're patient, you'll be rewarded with potentially the longest odds on Allen you'll see all season.
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