Best Bets for QBs Drafted At Least 12 Years Ago: Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, Geno Smith Picks

How will the elder statesmen signal-callers perform in the 2025 NFL season? We explore that question with our Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, and Geno Smith expert picks.

Gary Pearson

Last Updated: July 29, 2025 8:44 AM EDT • 5 minute read

While there aren't too many ancient quarterbacks marshalling the backfield entering the 2025 NFL season, there is a handful we have our eyes on.

Our best bets for NFL QBs drafted at least 12 years ago feature Aaron Rodgers, Geno Smith, and Matthew Stafford - all of whom will, injury-dependent, start for their teams when Week 1 comes around.

I attempted to find prop bets for the other two, Joe Flacco and Russell Wilson, but those aren't available. Neither is guaranteed a consistent starting role for the Cleveland Browns and New York Giants, respectively.

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🏗️ Aaron Rodgers Over 3,200.5 passing yards

📊 Best odds: -105 via DraftKings
🔢 Implied probability: 51.22%

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Yes, he's old, very old. No active quarterback is older than the 41-year-old Rodgers, who has two years on Flacco.

He joined a Pittsburgh Steelers team that, since Ben Roethlisberger retired, has more of an aversion to throwing the ball downfield than a claustrophobic has to getting stuffed in a cupboard.

The Steelers finished last season with the seventh-fewest passing yards (3,607), split between Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. Mike Tomlin and Co. should entrust Rodgers to air it out more often than all of his underachieving predecessors combined.

Even if he doesn't steer the Steelers to the promised land, I can't see things unfolding worse for the soon-to-be-retired signal-caller at his final port of call than they did with the New York Jets.

Entering his 21st year in the NFL, Rodgers has never thrown for fewer passing yards as a starter than the 3,695 he amassed in 2022, excluding two injury-riddled years in 2013 and 2017. If he plays every game, an ambitious goal, he'll need to average 188 yards per game.

Even if they don't remedy their passing allergy, Rodgers should eclipse that threshold. You can get better odds at BetMGM, which offers +105. However, its total is set at 3250.5. I'm sticking with the 50-yard buffer.

🐏 Matthew Stafford Over 3,750.5 passing yards

📊 Best odds: -110 via BetMGM
🔢 Implied probability: 52.38%

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There is concern about Stafford's current back issue, which has kept him off the field early in the Rams training camp. However, I'm taking the risky plunge, believing in ESPN's Peter Schrager, who said the team is just being "ultra cautious."

Stafford has two premier receivers who should help with the bulk of the required yards. Puka Nacua, who struggled with a knee injury in his sophomore season, averaged 90 receiving yards per game over 11 games. That's three more than his outstanding rookie campaign, in which he had 1,486 yards in 17 games.

If he remains healthy, Nacua should get near his rookie total.

Cooper Kupp's departure created an opportunity for Davante Adams, who also struggled with injuries. In the last two seasons, he played just 14 games. If he can stay off the treatment table, expect him to at least match his 1,144 receiving yards in 2022.

That would leave Stafford just over 1,000 yards to share between the rest of his receiving contingent, a manageable load for his secondary and tertiary targets.

Stafford played at least 16 games in 11 of the previous 14 seasons. Each time, he had at least 3,762 passing yards. He hit the Over in four of the last five seasons, with the only exception coming three seasons ago when he only played nine games.

Among the best sports betting apps, DraftKings and BetMGM offer the most competitive price, where a $10 bet yields a profit of $9.09.

☠️ Geno Smith Over 3,575.5 passing yards

📊 Best odds: -110 via DraftKings
🔢 Implied probability: 52.38%

Smith had at least 3,576 passing yards in the last three seasons, including with Pete Carroll in the coach's final two seasons at the helm of the Seattle Seahawks.

I'm cognizant of the Seahawks' dependence on Smith's arm, and the Las Vegas Raiders' plan to prioritize the run game with Offensive Rookie of the Year odds favorite Ashton Jeanty patrolling the backfield, which will invariably cut into his overall passing output.

But it shouldn't reduce his passing yardage enough to fall under the 3,576-yard threshold. We covered some rookie bets to make now if you're interested in an Over play for the Raiders' star young back.

You can get +105 odds at BetMGM for this Smith prop, but you'll have to be copacetic with adding 100 yards to his total. That put me off as quickly as undercooked chicken.

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Written by:
Gary Pearson

Gary Pearson has written professionally since 2010, focusing on sports betting since 2014. Before entering the sports betting space, he contributed to the Canadian Press, FanSided, the Hockey Writers, the Calgary Herald, and other publications. His work has also been featured in Sports Illustrated and Bleacher Report. Gary, who consumes sports like a blue whale devours plankton, has a penchant for writing predictions and analyses across several sports, including hockey, soccer, football, tennis, and more. He bets regularly, preferring single-game picks, props, and live betting. While there isn't a sport he has yet to dabble in, Gary prefers betting on soccer, hockey, and football. He studied at various post-secondary institutions, including the University of Calgary, SAIT Polytechnic, and Griffith University, located in Brisbane, Australia. Gary has a marketing degree and completed his bachelor's degree in journalism at Griffith University. He feels strongly that life experience is as essential as post-secondary education, helping formulate more accurate predictions and analyses. Gary believes that competing at a high level of amateur sports during his formative years helped him better understand an athlete's psyche and the nuances and complexities of a team's dynamic, both on and off the playing surface. He feels that knowledge is immeasurably important when offering his analytical expertise. He has lived on five continents and currently resides in Canada.