NFL Best Bets for Week 9: Our Expert Picks, ATS Predictions & Player Props

Favorites had a historic week covering 11 of the 13 games in Week 8, and my NFL best bets for Week 9 combine our two best favorites in a moneyline parlay.

I look to build off of last week’s profitable NFL picks with the Over in a primetime game. And adding to my NFL predictions for Week 9 are my top three player prop wagers, which include an anytime touchdown scorer play in the highly anticipated Chiefs-Bills matchup. 

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🏈 NFL best bets & expert picks: Week 9

NFL best bets made Friday; odds subject to change.

• Colts/Lions moneyline parlay (-106 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Seahawks-Commanders Over 47.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Tyrone Tracy Jr. Over 50.5 rushing yards (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• J.K. Dobbins Under 66.5 rushing and receiving yards (-112 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Rashee Rice anytime touchdown scorer (+110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

🔮 Best NFL predictions: ATS, ML, O/U

Track the latest NFL scores for line movement and matchup info.

🐴 + 🦁 Colts/Lions moneyline parlay (-106) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Against teams .500 or better, Aaron Rodgers is 1-2 while averaging 6.1 yards per attempt, and recording a 5-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio and 40 Total QBR. Meanwhile, he has padded his stats against teams with a losing record, going 3-1 with an 8.0 yards per attempt average, 11-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio, and 61 Total QBR. 

I do not expect Pittsburgh to beat an Indianapolis team that is the first in the Super Bowl era to allow fewer than 10 sacks and have fewer than five turnovers in the first eight games.

I am adding Detroit’s moneyline odds as the second leg of this parlay in our NFL picks as the Vikings are going back to J.J. McCarthy as their starting quarterback.

McCarthy’s 22 Total QBR was the worst in the NFL through Week 2. The team also averaged 16.5 points and 226 yards per game in McCarthy’s two starts, while not generating a first down on 52% of its possessions. 

BetMGM offers the best odds for this two-leg parlay. Its -106 price at a 51.46% implied probability would net $9.43 in profits on a winning $10 wager.

⬆️ Seahawks-Commanders Over 47.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold leads the NFL with 9.1 yards per attempt, while Washington allows the most yards per pass attempt (8.3). 

The Commanders also have an edge in this game with their up-tempo offense. Washington has run no-huddle on an NFL-high 301 plays, more than the next two teams combined. But Seattle’s defense against no-huddle ranks 21st in yards per play (5.7), 23rd in QBR (64), and 28th in passing yards allowed (298). 

This total is already up as many as two points from an opening number of 46. I am backing the Over at the standard -110 juice (carrying a 52.38% implied probability) at BetMGM in case the line jumps further with Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels trending towards playing. 

A $10 winning wager would return $9.09 in profits.

💰 Best NFL player prop bets for Week 9

Our NFL player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.

⬆️ Tyrone Tracy Jr. Over 50.5 rushing yards (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Tyrone Tracy Jr. will take over the Giants lead rushing duties after rookie Cam Skattebo suffered a season-ending injury.

He faces a 49ers defense that ranks in the bottom six in yards before contact, receiving yards, and touchdowns to running backs since the Nick Bosa injury. 

Tracy Jr. saw double-digit carries in nine games last year, and went over this projected total six times.

BetMGM’s -110 odds carrying a 52.38% implied probability would net $9.09 in profits on a $10 wager if Tracy Jr. runs for 51-plus yards.

⬇️ J.K. Dobbins Under 66.5 rushing and receiving yards (-112) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Broncos running back J.K. Dobbins has scored just one touchdown in the last five games. It would not be surprising to see him lose more work down the stretch to rookie R.J. Harvey, who is coming off the first multi-touchdown game of his career.

Dobbins has averaged 15 touches per game, and faces a Texans defense that has allowed the fifth-fewest yards per rush to running backs. Houston is also bottom-six in explosive runs to the position.

Given that Dobbins has five or fewer receiving yards in six of eight games this season, I am backing the Under on his rushing and receiving yards as one of my best NFL player props instead of simply targeting his rushing yards, as he is not likely to add much in the passing game.

DraftKings has the best odds for this wager. One could stand to profit $8.93 on a winning $10 wager through its -112 price at 52.83% implied odds.

🔥 Rashee Rice anytime touchdown scorer (+110) ⭐⭐⭐

Since returning from suspension, Chiefs wide receiver Rashee Rice has seen a 29% target share, while no other Chiefs player is even at 17%. Rice has also been the first read on 34% of passing plays, and his 40.4% target share since Week 7 is second only behind only Ja’Marr Chase (51.2%).

Quarterback Patrick Mahomes threw three touchdowns last week, and has averaged 10.9 yards per attempt and totaled a 4-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio and 69 QBR when he has at least three seconds to throw. 

bet365 is the only top sports betting site where one can find plus-money odds for Rice to score a touchdown. His implied odds to score are as high as 52.38% on the opposite end of the market, but the best return is through bet365’s +110 odds that would net $11 in profits on a winning $10 wager.