NFL Best Bets Today | Week 18 ATS Picks & Player Props

My NFL best bets today for Week 18 look to end the regular season on a high note.

While playing time and availability for some of the league’s brightest stars are in question for many teams given the scenarios, my NFL Week 18 predictions begin with a six-point teaser on Saturday’s two games, which carry mammoth playoff implications.  Elsewhere, I am backing a quarterback looking to chase down the Rookie of the Year Award, and a wide receiver against the league’s worst secondary.

🏈 NFL best bets for Week 18

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🔮 Best NFL predictions: ATS, ML, O/U

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Dolphins +11.5 (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

There is a lot working against Miami, like the fact that Mike McDaniel’s teams are 0-6 SU and 2-4 ATS in outdoor games under 40 degrees, and have lost those games by an average of 10.6 points.

While Drake Maye has covered both games in his career as a double-digit favorite, underdogs of 7.5 or more points in Weeks 17 and 18 have a plus-9.7% ROI on the moneyline. 

I’m not calling for an outright upset, but New England’s chances to earn the No. 1 seed evaporate if Denver takes care of Los Angeles. Thus, we may see the Patriots rest some starters in the second half, while Mike McDaniel and Quinn Ewers are coaching and playing for jobs next year.

Commanders-Eagles Under 39.5 (-115) ⭐⭐⭐

This wager is not as much of a reaction to Philadelphia totaling just 16 yards and being shutout in the second half last week as one would think. Instead, this is more of a situational play with the Eagles being locked into the No. 3 seed if the Bears beat the Lions.

Instead of backing Washington as a 4-point underdog, I am taking the Under in a game where three of its defensive players will be hunting sacks for lucrative incentives. 

It also helps that the Under is 7-1 in Philadelphia’s last eight games overall.

Panthers +8.5/49ers +7.5 six-point teaser (-135) ✅

My first NFL prediction for Week 18 is also my most confident five-star play, as this six-point teaser allows us to grab two underdogs at better than a touchdown.

Tampa Bay has been horrible in one-score games under Todd Bowles since 2022. Including playoffs, the Buccaneers’ -666 yards differential ranks 28th, the -27 point differential ranks 22nd, and their 17-21 won-loss record is tied for 21st in one-score games. Now Baker Mayfield cannot be trusted in a big spot, as his eight interceptions since Week 10 are tied for fourth-most. 

San Francisco is also 6-0 since Brock Purdy returned from injury. It should cover 7.5 points after ranking top two in points per game, third-down percentage, and red zone touchdown percentage since Week 11.

💰 Best NFL player props for Week 18

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Tyler Shough Over 31.5 pass attempts (-120) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Saints quarterback Tyler Shough entered the season at 60-1 by the Offensive Rookie of the Year odds, and dipped as low as 300-1 when he didn’t make his first start until midseason. But with Shough now being neck-and-neck for the award with Panthers wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan, I envision the Saints coaching staff doing what they can to help Shough’s case in the regular season finale.

Shough has led the team to four straight wins for the first time since 2020. And with New Orleans tying for the worst first-half spread record (4-12), Shough should once again see heavy passing volume in the second half if he needs to engineer another comeback. 

Wan’Dale Robinson anytime touchdown scorer (+170) ⭐⭐⭐

Giants wide receiver Wan’Dale Robinson is one of several players chasing incentives in Week 18. He enters needing eight receptions to get to 100 on the season, so it will be interesting to see if he is peppered with targets against a depleted Cowboys secondary that just cut Trevon Diggs.

Robinson caught eight of 10 targets for 142 yards and a touchdown in the Week 2 matchup between these teams. And with the Over being 7-2 in Jaxson Dart’s last nine starts and 8-0 in the first half of Dallas’ road games this season, I am taking advantage of what could be another shootout.

💡 NFL expert picks for Week 18

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