NFL Upset Picks for Week 18 | Ranking Best Underdogs & Moneyline Bets This Week

My NFL upset picks have gone an extremely profitable 5-1 over the last two weeks, with underdog cashes of +118 and +180 in Week 17.

My NFL Week 18 predictions look to end the regular season on a high note, as there should be plenty of value on some moneyline underdogs based on personnel decisions and how teams choose to play out the final game.

🏈 NFL Week 18 upset rankings

See the latest NFL odds and our experts' NFL picks for every game this season.

🚨 Best NFL upset picks for Week 18

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49ers over Seahawks (+100) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

San Francisco is 6-0 since Brock Purdy returned from injury, making it one of three undefeated teams since Week 11.

In that span, San Francisco ranks first in points per game (35.7) and third-down percentage (59%), second in red zone touchdown percentage (73%), and first in touchdown drive percentage (41%).

Not only was Purdy a cool 4-for-5 for 66 yards and a touchdown on the game-winning drive last week, but the 49ers offense looked incredibly balanced with Christian McCaffrey running for a season-high 140 yards. 

San Francisco has a path to play at home for the rest of the season (including the Super Bowl) with a win over Seattle, and I expect it to earn the NFC’s No. 1 seed. 

Saints over Falcons (+140) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

If Atlanta wins this week, it would do something it has never done under head coach Raheem Morris, which is win four consecutive games. 

It is fair to wonder if the Falcons played last week’s Monday Night Football game against the Rams as their Super Bowl, with a letdown impending this week. In addition, Bijan Robinson is 45 scrimmage yards away from becoming the sixth running back in NFL history to total 2,300 yards in a season. Will Atlanta rest him once he hits that mark?

I expect no such letdown from New Orleans, who has won four straight games for the first time since 2020. 

The Saints are looking to exact revenge for a 24-10 Week 12 loss to Atlanta, which was also the only time Kirk Cousins covered the spread in five career starts against New Orleans.

Giants over Cowboys (+225) ⭐⭐⭐

New York threw away its best chance at earning the No. 1 overall pick in next year’s draft when it beat Las Vegas on the road last week. With the top spot no longer a viable option, I am backing the Giants as a mid-tier underdog to end the season with a win over one of their biggest rivals, and an unmotivated one at that.

Russell Wilson torched Dallas’ secondary for 450 yards and three touchdowns of 20-plus air yards in Week 2. Perhaps interim head coach Mike Kafka will have some fun and let rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart air it out just as much in what is likely the coach’s last game with the organization.

🚀 NFL Week 18 upset parlay