NFL Against the Spread Picks Power Rankings: Our Top 10 ATS Bets and Predictions for Week 6
How will the Jacksonville Jaguars respond to their embarrassing home loss to the Houston Texans in Week 5? Our NFL power rankings look at our favorite against the spread picks for Week 6.
Wait until you see the spread for the Seattle Seahawks' game against the Arizona Cardinals, the disrespect for Geno Smith continues. The public perception of the Seahawks has not caught up with the level at which they are playing, as evidenced by the Week 6 spread. It is important to note that the Seahawks are not looking to tank, they have a good chance of making the playoffs in the disappointing NFC West.
Check out our best NFL Week 6 odds and lines.
The following is the power rankings of my favorite against the spread picks for Week 6 of the NFL season (odds via our top-rated sportsbooks; lines as of Tuesday, Oct. 11 at 9 a.m. ET).
NFL Week 6 ATS Power Rankings
10. Bears pick'em (-110 via Caesars) vs. Commanders
The Washington Commanders experienced reverse line movement last week and we are seeing it again early in Week 6. There is 69% of the cash on the Chicago Bears, but the spread has moved from Bears -1.5 to a pick'em. Although I have the Bears priced as 2-point favorites against the Commanders, the reverse line movement raises a red flag regarding the Bears' chances of covering the spread. In terms of the power rankings, I lean Bears, but the line movement puts this bet at No. 10.
9. Bills -3 (+105 via DraftKings) at Chiefs
The Buffalo Bills were trading as 2-point favorites prior to the Kansas City Chiefs' close victory over the Las Vegas Raiders on Monday Night Football, which was a much more favorable line. If we were able to secure a spread of Bills -2 or even Bills -2.5, this would rank much higher in my power rankings. It may surprise many people that the Bills are favored on the road at Arrowhead Stadium, but when you analyze the metrics, there is no doubt that they are the superior team. When betting on this game, be cautious as it appears that the sportsbooks are more interested in altering the juice than the spread itself. Bills -2.5 (-118) is available at FanDuel, but statistically, Bills -3 (+105) is the better value.
8. Steelers +8.5 (-110 via PointsBet) vs. Buccaneers
After the Pittsburgh Steelers lost 38-3 to the Bills in Week 5, it will be difficult for many bettors to get behind this spread. However, it is precisely for this reason that I believe you are getting more points than you should with the Steelers early in the week. I expect that as we approach kickoff, you will see this spread trading closer to Buccaneers -7 than -8.5, which is why I am looking to bet on the Steelers. Despite scoring only three points, we did see some positives from rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett against the Bills, as he threw for 327 yards.
7. Patriots +3 (-110 via FanDuel) at Browns
Head coach Bill Belichick's decision not to commit to Mac Jones as the starting quarterback was an interesting development. It appears that the markets have downgraded the New England Patriots as a result of rookie Bailey Zappe starting, despite the fact that he has led a very efficient offensive attack. In Week 5, Rhamondre Stevenson rushed for 161 yards against the Detroit Lions, and in Week 6, Stevenson will face the NFL's worst rush defense based on DVOA. I have the Browns priced as 2-point favorites, so the value here is largely tied to getting the key number of 3 points.
6. Saints +2 (-110 via PointsBet) vs. Bengals
When the New Orleans Saints face the Cincinnati Bengals at Caesars Superdome in Week 6, I have them priced as slight favorites on the moneyline, yet several sportsbooks have them catching 2 points. Currently, you can find the Saints at +2 but as the week progresses, I believe this will move toward a pick'em, which is a more accurate spread. My power ranking places the Saints at No. 6 due to the fact that we are able to secure the 2 points, but as this game approaches a pick'em, the value of this point spread drops.
5. Jets +7 (-105 via FanDuel) at Packers
In my opinion, the Green Bay Packers are being overvalued in this spot since they did not accept a bye week following their trip to London, England and are now laying 7 points at home against the New York Jets. With a great deal of young talent, this isn't the same Jets offense as in the past couple of seasons. We are seeing increased juice on Packers -7, which means you might be able to find the Jets trading at +7.5 very soon. In this bet, the hook on the key number of 7 would add significant value to this bet.
4. Dolphins +3 (-107 via PointsBet) vs. Vikings
There has been a significant swing in this spread due to injuries at the quarterback position for the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins were trading as 3-point home favorites on the lookahead line last week at Caesars, but now they are 3-point underdogs at home to the Minnesota Vikings. Don't let the Vikings fool you, their record will always be better than the level at which they are playing due to their easy schedule. At home, the Vikings barely defeated the Detroit Lions and the Chicago Bears. I believe the Dolphins will win this game outright, so give me the 3 points.
3. Panthers +11 (-110 via DraftKings) at Rams
We saw the Los Angeles Rams -8.5 lookahead line increase to Rams -11 following the Carolina Panthers' lifeless performance in Week 5. I like the Panthers in this spot because I think they quit on former head coach Matt Rhule, and now he has been fired. Another factor to consider here is how you feel about the Rams. Do you consider the Rams to be Super Bowl contenders or a team that will miss the playoffs? Because I have the Rams power rated as a team that could miss the playoffs, I like the 11 points we are getting with the Panthers.
2. Jaguars +2 (-107 via PointsBet) at Colts
The Jacksonville Jaguars' loss to the Houston Texans will not discourage me from backing them against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 6. Before pulling out an ugly win against the Denver Broncos, the Colts were seemingly on the verge of firing head coach Frank Reich. The Colts are not a good football team, and just because they won in Week 5 and the Jaguars lost does not change my opinion as to which team is superior in this matchup. The Jaguars should be favored over the Colts, who rank dead last in overall team DVOA at Football Outsiders.
1. Seahawks +3 (-120 via BetMGM) vs. Cardinals
In the Jaguars-Colts game, there is a slightly wider gap between the spread as it stands and where I believe it should be trading. However, I rank the Seattle Seahawks at No. 1 in the power rankings due to our ability to secure the key number of 3 points. In my opinion, this spread is way off and the Seahawks should be favored over the Cardinals, especially at home. The line of Seahawks +3 is already showing increased juice and this spread is no doubt going to move in favor of the Seahawks. You should act fast on this one.
Where to Bet on NFL ATS Picks
Picks made 10/11/2022 at 12:14 p.m. ET.
