NFL Against the Spread Picks Power Rankings: Our Top 10 ATS Bets and Predictions for Week 18
The AFC South division title is still up for grabs during the final week of the NFL's season. Will the Jacksonville Jaguars be able to win the division in their first campaign under Doug Pederson? Our NFL power rankings look at our favorite point-spread picks for Week 18 using the best NFL odds.
"Don't cry because it's over. Smile because it happened."
With the NFL season coming to a close, motivation and the intentions of most teams will play a significant role in how we handicap the Week 18 games. The slate will be filled with tanking, teams resting players, and other clubs vying for better seeding or playoff spots.
Keep a close eye on the breaking news and the odds and lines this week. The market will experience plenty of adjustments in response to how each team plans on moving forward.
Here are the power rankings of my favorite point-spread picks for Week 18 of the NFL season (odds via our top-rated sportsbooks; Lines as of Monday, Jan. 2 at 10:00 a.m. ET).
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NFL ATS Picks Power Rankings for Week 18
10. Giants +14 (-110 via PointsBet) at Eagles
The New York Giants are in the playoffs for the first time since 2016, and they're locked into the No. 6 seed in the NFC. It's clear from this spread that the market believes the Giants will rest their players. But do you expect a Brian Daboll-coached team to lay down and die? I don't, and I believe the Giants will remain competitive against a division rival.
Since I don't know exactly who the Giants will rest this week, I'm unable to place a price on this game. The only thing I know is that if Jalen Hurts were playing and it was a normal week, I would've priced the game at Eagles -9.5. The ability to get Giants +14 is also important to me, but I may wait a bit to see if I can buy the Giants at +14.5.
9. Rams +6.5 (-105 via DraftKings) at Seahawks
Despite a depleted roster and being eliminated from playoff contention, the Los Angeles Rams have remained competitive down the stretch. They would embrace the opportunity to eliminate a division rival from the playoff picture. There's also no incentive for the Rams to lose in Week 18, as the Detroit Lions hold their first-round pick.
The Seattle Seahawks should be 5.5-point favorites over the Rams, so there's only a 1-point difference between my number and the market, and no key numbers are involved. I'm therefore ranking the Rams at No. 9. If you're able to find the Rams at +7 between now and Sunday, this wager will be significantly more valuable.
8. Chiefs -9.5 (-110 via FanDuel) at Raiders
The Jarrett Stidham show was entertaining. But let's get serious, as the Kansas City Chiefs are now playing to win the No. 1 seed. A lack of motivation could be an issue for several teams this week. But not the Chiefs, who are battling for the No. 1 seed against the Buffalo Bills and possibly the Cincinnati Bengals.
I'm projecting the Kansas City Chiefs as a 12-point favorite over the Las Vegas Raiders. The spread appeals to me because it's currently trading below the 10-point threshold at Chiefs -9.5. I would like to lock in this price at Chiefs -9.5 before it moves up to Chiefs -10 and ruins some of my value.
7. Jets +2.5 (-110 via BetMGM) at Dolphins
There's no indication Tua Tagovailoa will be cleared from the concussion protocol, and Teddy Bridgewater suffered a broken finger. So it appears rookie Skylar Thompson will start on Sunday. It was fun while it lasted from the Mike McDaniel-led Miami Dolphins, but his team is cooked heading into Week 18.
Since Thompson will likely start, I'm making this game a pick'em between the Dolphins and Jets. It's surprising the market has the Dolphins laying three points to the Jets with Thompson starting. I anticipate this spread will continue to move in the Jets' favor.
6. Browns +3 (-115 via Caesars) at Steelers
The Pittsburgh Steelers have won five of their last six games, and Kenny Pickett is proving to be the franchise quarterback the Steelers were hoping for after selecting him in the first round. In contrast, the Cleveland Browns have nothing to play for in Week 18. But the opportunity to keep the Steelers out of the AFC playoffs should provide ample motivation.
I make the Steelers a 2-point favorite over the Browns in Week 18. The difference is only one point, but it's a crucial point, as the Browns are trading at the key number of +3. In this wager, the value of the bet is directly related to purchasing the Browns at the key number of three points. We're already seeing increased juice on the Browns' side of the spread, so I fully expect Cleveland will move to +2.5 early in the week.
5. Panthers +4.5 (-110 via PointsBet) at Saints
Both the Carolina Panthers and New Orleans Saints were eliminated from the playoffs in Week 17, so morale may be low for this game.
The Panthers could've given up on their season a long time ago, but they continued to fight and almost won the NFC South as a reward for their efforts. There's still a lot for the Panthers to play for in Week 18 due to Steve Wilks' desire to remain head coach and Sam Darnold's quest to stay as the starting quarterback.
I make the Saints a 3.5-point favorite over the Panthers, so the difference is only one point. But there are some key numbers involved here. Additionally, there's a price shopping opportunity with the Panthers, as only PointsBet and FanDuel offer the Panthers at +4.5, while BetMGM, Caesars, and DraftKings are posting the Panthers at +4. Considering the importance of the hook in this wager, I wouldn't wait to place money on the Panthers.
4. Broncos +3.5 (-115 via PointsBet) vs. Chargers
The Denver Broncos only lost to the Chiefs 27-24 while playing their first game under interim head coach Jerry Rosburg in Week 17, despite being 13.5-point underdogs. The Broncos were competitive against the Chiefs, but the true reason this spread cracks the top five is the price-shopping opportunity.
I make the Chargers a 2-point favorite over the Broncos, so there's certainly value here. But with PointsBet offering the Broncos at +3.5, our edge is even greater. PointsBet is the only sportsbook featuring the Broncos at +3.5. As long as the juice remains at -115, this is the best price when compared to Caesars' line of Broncos +3 (+100).
3. Jaguars -6.5 (-105 via FanDuel) vs. Titans
The Tennessee Titans will hold a significant rest advantage when they square off against the Jacksonville Jaguars for the AFC South title on Saturday night. Some players were rested when the Titans played on Thursday Night Football in Week 17, whereas the Jaguars played everyone when they defeated the Houston Texans on Sunday.
Despite that advantage and the fact that Josh Dobbs contributed more to the offense than Malik Willis, I still believe this spread is too low. I make the Jaguars an 8.5-point favorite over the Titans and I predict they'll win the division with ease on Saturday night. But purchase the Jaguars at -6.5 before they move up to the key number of seven points.
2. Bengals -6.5 (-110 via DraftKings) vs. Ravens
Motivation will be a problem for several teams in Week 18, but not for the Cincinnati Bengals. Depending on how their game against the Buffalo Bills goes on Monday Night Football, the Bengals could be playing for the AFC North Division title or a chance at the No. 1 seed.
I make the Bengals an 8-point favorite over the Baltimore Ravens. However, I'm setting that price based on the assumption that Tyler Huntley will start at quarterback for the Ravens, and that Baltimore will be motivated. Cincinnati will win its division if the Bengals beat the Bills on Monday Night Football, leaving the Ravens with nothing to play for in Week 18. But the Bengals will still be in contention for the AFC's top seed.
This spread will be much higher if the Ravens rest their starters. Look to grab it at Bengals -6.5 if Cincinnati is winning on Monday Night Football.
1. Lions +4.5 (-110 via Caesars) at Packers
The Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers both need a victory to make the playoffs. The Lions have historically struggled at Lambeau Field, and there's always been a strong narrative against betting on Jared Goff playing in the cold. Combine that with the Packers' recent blowout victory over the Minnesota Vikings, and the market is overvaluing the Packers.
I have the Packers as 2-point favorites over the Lions, which is a 2.5-point difference from the market price. In addition to the 2.5-point difference, multiple key numbers are involved. I have a hard time envisioning the Lions winning at Lambeau Field, but you're getting great value on the spread, and we only need the Lions to suffer a loss of four points or fewer.
NFL against-the-spread picks made 01/02/2023 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
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