NFL Week 4 Against the Spread Picks for Every Game
Parity has been the name of the game through three weeks of the 2024 NFL season, and we don't expect that to change in Week 4.
- Away teams are 26-20-2 ATS since the start of the season
- Favorites are 22-24-2, and away favorites are 7-5-1
- Away underdogs are 19-15-1, and home underdogs are 5-7-1
After an 8-8 Week 3, my ATS picks are level at 24-24. It looks like I'm taking the parity theme to heart.
I'm still severely aggrieved about the missed pass interference call in the end zone and one of the worst fourth-down play calls you'll ever see during the late stages of the Kansas City Chiefs vs. Atlanta Falcons contest.
Shame on everyone involved in that epic debacle.
If it weren't for luck and favorable officiating, the Super Bowl odds front-runners certainly wouldn't have an unblemished record.
Putting my sour grapes aside, let's examine our ATS picks, part of our comprehensive NFL Week 4 predictions.
NFL ATS picks Week 4: Every game
NFL odds via FanDuel and subject to change; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Cowboys (-4.5) vs. Giants | Cowboys (-4.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Bengals (-4.5) vs. Panthers | Panthers (+4.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Broncos vs. Jets (-7) | Broncos (+7) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Saints vs. Falcons (-1.5) | Falcons (-1.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Vikings vs. Packers (-2.5) | Packers (-2.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Jaguars vs. Texans (-6.5) | Texans (-6.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Steelers (-1.5) vs. Colts | Steelers (-1.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Rams vs. Bears (-2.5) | Rams (+2.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Eagles (-2.5) vs. Buccaneers | Buccaneers (+2.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Patriots vs. 49ers (-10) | Patriots (+10) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Commanders vs. Cardinals (-3.5) | Commanders (+3.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Browns (-1.5) vs. Raiders | Raiders (+1.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Chiefs (-7.5) vs. Chargers | Chargers (+7.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Bills vs. Ravens (-1.5) | Ravens (-1.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Titans (-1.5) vs. Dolphins | Dolphins (+1.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Seahawks vs. Lions (-4.5) | Lions (-4.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
My favorite ATS picks this week
NFL picks as of Tuesday. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Rams (+2.5) vs. Bears
Best odds: +105 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 48.78%
While the Los Angeles Rams are arguably the most injured team in football, I can't lay money on the Chicago Bears as favorites after seeing how their offense has struggled in the first three weeks.
To further emphasize the point, the Bears' offense ranks 30th overall at PFF.
The Los Angeles Rams scored two touchdowns and two field goals in their last four drives to pull off the Houdini act in San Francisco against the 49ers.
While the Bears have the seventh-ranked coverage unit and have the eighth-best pass rush, their run defense (13th) and tackling (17th) can be exposed by Kyren Williams.
Also, Matthew Stafford can sling it with the best of them, and Tutu Atwell stepped up in the absence of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua.
Some of our best NFL betting sites have the Rams at +3 at slightly shorter odds. I'm taking the +2.5 at DraftKings at a tasty +105. A winning $10 bet will profit $10.50.
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Chiefs vs. Chargers (+8.5)
Best odds: -112 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 52.83%
The Chiefs are massive favorites in Los Angeles against a pretty good Chargers team. Kansas City hasn't run roughshod over any opponent this season and is fortunate to be 3-0. The Chiefs won by seven against the Baltimore Ravens thanks to a toenail crossing the white paint.
And their other two games could have easily gone the other way.
A needless pass interference penalty against the Cincinnati Bengals and a missed pass interference in Atlanta ensured the defending champs enter Week 4 undefeated.
While they'll probably escape with their lives again, I can't see them winning by two scores on the road against a seemingly resolute and resilient Jim Harbaugh-led team.
DraftKings offers the largest spread (+8.5). Our other best sports betting apps have the Chiefs as 7.5 or 8-point favorites. I like the additional buffer at a decent -112. Those odds will pay an $8.93 profit on a winning $10 bet.
Seahawks vs. Lions (-4.5)
Best odds: -105 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 51.22%
The Detroit Lions were 5-3 ATS at home last season and are 1-1 in the current campaign at Ford Field. Despite their struggles at home against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 2, I'm banking on the version of the Lions that played confidently in Arizona resurfacing.
David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs combined for 188 rushing yards against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 3.
While the Seattle Seahawks are far superior defending the run (eighth best), they have a mediocre 14th-ranked pass rush.
That should provide Jared Goff more time in the pocket, which he'll need against the Seahawks' league-best coverage unit (89.9).
If the Seahawks manage to consistently penetrate one of the league's best offensive lines and neutralize the passing attack, Montgomery and Gibbs will prove why the Lions' run offense is ranked second best.
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