Skip to main content

Santa Clara vs. Saint Mary's Prediction, Pick & Odds: West Coast Conference Semifinal

Mike Spector

Last Updated: March 11, 2024 5:32 PM EDT • 3 min 20 sec read.

Adama Bal of the Santa Clara Broncos reacts after making a basket against the Gonzaga Bulldogs. In our Santa Clara vs. Saint Mary's prediction, we expect Bal to help the Broncos cover.
Adama Bal of the Santa Clara Broncos reacts after making a basket against the Gonzaga Bulldogs. Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images via AFP.

In our top Santa Clara vs. Saint Mary's prediction based on the best college basketball odds, we look ahead to the Broncos playing the Gaels tough in the West Coast Conference semifinal.

Saint Mary’s (24-7, 15-1 WCC) had the nation’s longest winning streak (16 games) snapped in its regular season loss to Gonzaga, but the Gaels still won the West Coast Conference's regular-season league championship for the first time since 2012. 

Santa Clara (19-12, 10-6 WCC) earned its spot in the conference tournament semifinal with a convincing 104-79 win over San Diego. The Broncos logged their third game scoring 100-plus points in 2023-24, and the second against a Division I opponent. Despite their high-scoring performances, Santa Clara has failed to advance to the final of the West Coast Conference tournament since 2007.

Here is our best Santa Clara vs. Saint Mary's prediction and our college basketball picks (odds via our best March Madness betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Santa Clara vs. Saint Mary's prediction

Santa Clara +10.5 ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -102 via FanDuel

One negative surrounding Santa Clara entering this matchup is that the top four teams in the league were a combined 38-2 against the bottom five teams with the two losses coming from the Broncos.

While Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga took care of business and were a combined 30-0 against the league’s worst teams, San Francisco, who went 11-1 against teams not named Saint Mary’s or Gonzaga, suffered its one loss to Santa Clara. That proves the Broncos can be competitive against the league’s top tier. 

Santa Clara would have likely swept the Dons, but it lost by one point on the road in which Adama Bal didn't play. Since Bal returned from a three-game absence, he's averaged 16 points per game over four contests. His impact on offense is vital, considering he ranks in the top 14 in the conference in percentage of his team’s possession and shot rate.

Embed content 3B5I8Mka9jg image

After getting blown out by 24 points at home by Saint Mary’s, Santa Clara made the necessary adjustments, losing by five points in the rematch at Moraga. The Broncos shot 42.1% from beyond the arc and scored 1.18 points per possession against the normally impenetrable Gaels defense. We like the fact that they have a game under their belts already in this tournament, while Saint Mary’s has been waiting around for nine days.

For as dominant as Saint Mary’s has been from a wins and losses perspective in the early rounds of this tournament, it has covered the spread in just one of its last six conference tournament games since 2020, and we prefer to be on the contrarian side with Santa Clara -102 to cover at our best sports betting sites.

Not intended for use in MA
Affiliate Disclosure: Sportsbook Review may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook

Santa Clara vs. Saint Mary's best odds

FanDuel (-102)

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsbet365
Santa Clara +11.5Santa Clara +10.5OFFSanta Clara +11Santa Clara +11.5
-112-102OFF-115-110

This is as sharp a line as it gets, as FanDuel offers the lowest spread and the best price of our best sports betting sites.

As one of the two dominant teams in the conference over much of the last decade, Saint Mary’s is likely to receive much of the betting action. Santa Clara's -102 odds imply a 50.49% chance it will cover against Saint Mary's, according to our odds calculator.

Saint Mary’s has had nine days off to stew over its last loss against Gonzaga, but Gaels backers may not have to worry about a rust factor, as the team is 7-4 ATS when playing on four or more days’ rest this season. However, we are siding with a Santa Clara squad that has won 20-plus games in three consecutive seasons for the first time since 1983-85.

North Carolina sportsbook offers

Editor's note: With North Carolina sports betting now live, check out our best North Carolina sports betting apps and the best North Carolina sportsbook promos! 21+ and present in NC. Take advantage of these pre-launch offers!

FanDuel (bet $5 get $250) | Caesars (bet $10, get $250) | bet365 (bet $5, get $200) | DraftKings (bet $5, get $250) | BetMGM (bet $5, get $150)

(21+ only. Underage persons are not allowed to wager. Gambling Problem? Call 877-718-5543 or text “morethanagamenc” to 53342.)

Santa Clara vs. Saint Mary's odds

Santa Clara vs. Saint Mary's odds analysis

As of Monday afternoon, DraftKings, after opening at -10, has moved to -11.5 less than four hours before tipoff. Saint Mary’s has covered 16 of its 30 games this season, while Santa Clara is an even more profitable 18-11-2 ATS.

Our top sports betting apps offer an O/U of between 135.5 and 136.5. 

Santa Clara vs. Saint Mary's game info

  • When: Monday, March 11 at 9:00 p.m. ET
  • Where: Orleans Arena, Las Vegas, Nev.
  • How to watch: ESPN

Santa Clara-Saint Mary's prediction made Sunday at 8:04 p.m. ET.

Here are our best March Madness betting sites:

(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.

Related pages

Written By:
Mike Spector
I have been in the sports writing industry for over three years, working for sites like BettingPros/FantasyPros, Oddschecker, and Sportsbook Review. In my first year writing for BettingPros, I finished with the #2 overall record in their annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an over/under and moneyline perspective. I am an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, and all college sports. In my opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and I am especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. I am a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." Follow me on Twitter for my best bets and commentary to go along with the wagers.