Pittsburgh vs. North Carolina Prediction, Pick & Odds: ACC Tournament Semifinal
Our Pittsburgh vs. North Carolina prediction based on the best college basketball odds expects Tar Heels center Armando Bacot to have a big game in the ACC Tournament semifinal.
After taking care of business with a dominant victory over Florida State in the quarterfinals of the ACC Tournament, top-seeded North Carolina shifts its focus to a resurgent Pittsburgh team led by All-ACC guard Blake Hinson. Despite ending the regular season with three consecutive conference victories and defeating Wake Forest in the quarterfinals, the Panthers face a formidable challenge on Friday.
The Tar Heels are among the favorites in our March Madness odds and have been cruising through the ACC after some early February hiccups. North Carolina has won seven straight conference games and enters the semifinals against Pittsburgh as a 7.5-point favorite at our best sports betting sites.
As part of our college basketball conference tournament predictions, here is our best Pittsburgh vs. North Carolina prediction and our college basketball picks (odds via our best March Madness betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Don't miss Friday's college basketball player props and best bets for more action, including a pick on Texas Tech's Darrion Williams.
Pittsburgh vs. North Carolina odds
Pittsburgh vs. North Carolina prediction
Armando Bacot Over 12.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -125 via BetMGM
North Carolina enters the semifinals against Pittsburgh as the No. 4 team in the AP Poll and an ACC Tournament title could lock Hubert Davis' program into a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Led by RJ Davis, one of the few players who had a shot in the Wooden Award odds race, the Tar Heels have proven to be one of the best offenses in the ACC.
The combination of Davis and All-ACC center Armando Bacot has helped North Carolina rank second in the conference in adjusted offensive rating, per KenPom. While Davis is the star of the show as a likely All-American, Bacot has long been one of the best paint players in the conference. The fifth-year senior holds the North Carolina record for career double-doubles and should be able to bully an undersized Pitt team.
The Panthers are 50th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency and have just two players ranked in the top 35 in the ACC in DBPR, per EvanMiya. Those two players are Guillermo Diaz Graham and Federiko Federiko, neither of whom play more than 21.5 minutes per game. That's where the problem comes in for Pitt against Bacot. Those two are the only players over 6-foot-7 in the Panthers' main rotation and neither are top five in minutes.
That lack of size will hurt Pitt against Bacot, who at 6-foot-10 is hitting 54.7% of his 2-pointers this season. As a whole, the Panthers have been one of the worst teams in the ACC defending inside the arc. Jeff Capel's team is allowing opponents to shoot 52.1% from 2-point range, 11th in the conference, and has struggled to rebound - ranking 12th in the ACC in defensive rebounds and 11th in defensive rebounds allowed. That should help the Tar Heels get extra possessions, and Bacot get Over 12.5 points.
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Pittsburgh vs. North Carolina best odds
BetMGM (-125)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bacot Over 12.5 points | N/A | Bacot Over 12.5 points | Bacot Over 12.5 points | Bacot Over 12.5 points |
| -130 | N/A | -125 | -131 | -125 |
Given Bacot's matchup against this undersized Pitt team, two of our best sports betting apps have Bacot's odds shorter than -125. That helps both BetMGM and bet365 stand out with the -125 odds implying a probability of 55.56% that Bacot finishes with at least 13 points, according to our odds calculator. While these odds are a little shorter than we'd like, a winning $10 bet would still lead to an $8 profit.
We would take Bacot Over 12.5 points with odds as short as -130 and we'd take the Over on his point total up to 13.5. Bacot is averaging 13.9 points per game this season and has had at least 13 points in 18 games, including three of his last four.
Pittsburgh vs. North Carolina odds analysis
After its thunderous win over Florida State, North Carolina opened as a 7.5-point favorite across our best sports betting sites. There's been some movement with BetMGM offering the Panthers +8.5 at one point, but now four of our five books have the Tar Heels -7.5 - just Caesars has Pittsburgh as an 8-point underdog. The Tar Heels are 19-13 ATS this season, while the Panthers are 20-9-3, but didn't cover as 4-point dogs against North Carolina on Jan. 2.
Given the scoring talent both of these teams have, the game total opened between 147 and 147.5 at our best sports betting sites. There's been minimal movement with bet365 offering the best value on the Over with the total of 147 at -110. The Tar Heels are 15-16-1 betting the Over and the Panthers 18-12-2.
Pittsburgh vs. North Carolina game info
- When: Friday, March 15
- Tip-off: 7 p.m. ET
- Where: Capital One Arena, Washington, D.C.
- How to watch: ESPN
Pittsburgh-North Carolina prediction made Friday at 10:10 a.m. ET.
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