🏀 NIT Quarterfinal Picks & Best Bets Today: NIT Predictions (March 24-25)
Four NIT quarterfinal matchups will play out over Tuesday and Wednesday to determine next week's two NIT semifinal matchups to be played at Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. Of the four matchups, one is between AAC rivals in Wichita State and Tulsa, who are meeting for the fourth time this season.
My NIT Quarterfinal picks as part of our March Madness predictions involve a moneyline parlay of two favorites today. I round that out with a total and an underdog spread play from Wednesday, all of which would pay out +563 odds on a four-leg parlay.
🏀 NIT Quarterfinal picks & best bets (March 24-25)
See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Matchup | Pick | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wichita State vs. Tulsa/Saint Joseph's vs. New Mexico | Tulsa/New Mexico ML parlay (-123 via bet365) | 1u -> 0.81u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Illinois State vs. Dayton | Over 138.5 (-110 via FanDuel) | 1u -> 0.91u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Nevada vs. Auburn | Nevada +9.5 (-110 via FanDuel) | 1u -> 0.91u | ⭐⭐⭐ |
Total wagered: 3.0 units | Max profit: 2.63 units
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💰 Best NIT Quarterfinal bet today
See the latest March Madness odds for every team in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
Tulsa/New Mexico ML parlay (-123)
My best bet is a moneyline parlay on both favorites tonight. Tulsa’s starting five has the third-best plus-minus in the country. I am disregarding its 13-point loss to the Shockers in the conference tournament, as Tulsa was coming off a triple-overtime game while Wichita State had a bye.
New Mexico has been the most dominant team in the NIT through two games, winning by an average of 24.5 points. It has a massive scheduling advantage being at home for the last 11 days, while Saint Joseph’s is playing its third West Coast game in the last six days.
🔥 More Quarterfinal picks today
Illinois State-Dayton Over 138.5 (-110)
Dayton’s offense is humming, with back-to-back 80-point performances in road wins after scoring 80-plus points just once since Dec. 16. The 80 points against Bradley impressed me considering they came in a slow-paced 60-possession game. The Flyers followed that up by scoring 80 points at Trask Coliseum, a great home-court advantage for UNC Wilmington where opponents shot just 30% from 3-point range.
I do not envision Illinois State will be able to keep Dayton away from the rim given its defensive issues against elite competition. The Redbirds entered their last game as a top-70 defense over the whole season, but barely cracked the top 200 defensively against KenPom top-100 competition.
Meanwhile, Illinois State found a new wrinkle offensively. The Redbirds spaced Chase Walker away from the rim more against Kent State, and he responded with his first game with multiple 3-pointers made all season.
Nevada +9.5 (-110)
Auburn impressively scored 91 points against a Seattle defense that had ranked 23rd in the country in scoring defense. The Redhawks had allowed 66 points on average for the season, and Auburn scored that in 30 minutes.
The Tigers built an 11-point halftime lead by out-rebounding Seattle 23-to-11. But the Wolf Pack are the 31st-best defensive rebounding team in the country, and that should negate Auburn’s strength as a top-20 offensive rebounding team. In addition, I expect Nevada’s packline defense to cause issues for Auburn’s offense if it cannot consistently get to the rim.
Nevada’s scheme offensively should also take time for Auburn to get adjusted to, as its floppy sets that generate a ton of midrange looks are not a staple of many SEC offenses.
🚀 Best NIT Quarterfinal parlay picks today
Despite FanDuel offering a steeper price of -610 on New Mexico's moneyline odds compared to other top sports betting sites, it offers the best value on other legs of the parlay. FanDuel is the only sportsbook with an O/U of 138.5 in the Illinois State-Dayton game (all others are at 139 or higher), and the low end of the market has Nevada at +9. All of the other +9.5s out there are juiced to -112 or higher.
💵 Best Quarterfinal parlay today
- Tulsa ML (-178)
- New Mexico ML (-610)
- Illinois State-Dayton Over 138.5 (-110)
- Nevada +9.5 (-110)
Best odds: +563 via FanDuel (1u -> 5.63u)
💵 My betting record for college basketball
All college basketball picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 13.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 56-53 | +14.24 units ✅ | +13.5% ✅ |
| Game picks | 40-34 | +14.43 units ✅ | +13.1% ✅ |
| Player props | 16-17 | +1.81 units ✅ | +5.5% ✅ |
💡 How I'm betting the NIT Quarterfinal today: Betting strategy
Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.
Home-court advantage should play a big factor in the fourth meeting between Wichita State and Tulsa, as the Golden Hurricane's only win in the three previous matchups was a 10-point home win on Feb. 1.
I toyed with the idea of backing Dayton as 6.5-point favorites as opposed to wagering on the Over given how hot its offense has been. But the Flyers are just 7-9 ATS as a home favorite this year and covered just 48% of their games as a favorite overall.
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