🏀 March Madness MVP Win Probability 2026: Who Will Win Final Four Most Outstanding Player?

March Madness is the ultimate launch pad for college basketball's biggest stars, and we've seen a handful of future NBA stars emerge as NCAA Tournament heroes and early favorites to win Final Four Most Outstanding Player honors ahead of the semifinals.

Yaxel Lendeborg has the highest March Madness MVP win probability to take home the MOP award after leading Michigan to its first Final Four since 2018. He's trading with a 27% chance at Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps for trading on sports, ahead of Arizona's Brayden Burries (13%), Illinois' Keaton Wagler (13%), and UConn's Tarris Reed Jr. (9%), with nearly $425,000 in trading volume ahead of Saturday's semifinal games.

Here's a look at the latest March Madness MVP win probabilities for every star player as part of our March Madness predictions entering the Final Four.

📊 March Madness MVP win probability: Who will win MOP?

Michigan's Yaxel Lendeborg is the clear favorite to win Final Four Most Outstanding Player odds amid a historic tournament run for the Wolverines, who have the highest March Madness win probability ahead of Saturday's matchup with Arizona.

Brayden Burries has the highest win probability for the Wildcats, who feature three players in the top six at Kalshi, while Illinois boasts just one player on the entire board with star freshman Keaton Wagler. Meanwhile, UConn has one player in the top five (Tarris Reed Jr.) with star senior Alex Karaban among the biggest MVP long shots.

Here are the full win probabilities for every star player to win MVP honors at Kalshi as of Tuesday, March 31, with the conversion to American odds via our odds converter and the price to buy "yes" shares in the prediction market:

Final Four Most Outstanding Player win probability

🏆 Who will win March Madness MVP? Win probabilities entering Final Four

Lendeborg is the clear favorite by the March Madness MVP odds entering the Final Four, but he's not the only player worth investing in ahead of the semifinals. Here are the top stars for each team and their respective win probabilities at Kalshi:

Yaxel Lendeborg, Michigan: 27% win probability (+270)

Lendeborg has been the best player in the tournament by a wide margin. The Midwest Region's Most Outstanding Player scored 23 or more in three consecutive games - the first Wolverine to do that since Juwan Howard in 1994 - while averaging a ridiculous 25 PPG, 8.3 RPG, and 4.3 APG with a steal and block per game on 61.4% shooting, including 52.6% from deep. His combination of size and skill has been virtually unguardable in this tournament; he's the favorite for a reason.

Brayden Burries, Arizona: 13% win probability (+669)

Burries has been the leading scorer for a loaded Wildcats roster all season long, and he's turned it up in the tournament with 17.8 PPG and 6.3 RPG while flashing the two-way potential that makes him a potential top-10 pick in June. The freshman guard is arguably the most dynamic perimeter player left in the tournament, which bodes well for his chances to take home MOP honors.

Keaton Wagler, Illinois: 13% win probability (+669)

Wagler burst onto the scene this year for the Fighting Illini's top-ranked offense while scoring double figures in 28 consecutive games entering the Final Four. He's averaging 17.5 PPG on 44% shooting from deep across four tournament games, including a 25-point performance in the Elite Eight win over Iowa. The freshman guard is the clear top option for a stacked lineup with five double-digit scorers, which makes him a potentially sneaky play in this market if you like Illinois' chances to win it all.

Tarris Reed Jr., UConn: 9% win probability (+1011)

Reed has been a man possessed in the tournament, averaging 21.8 PPG and 13.5 RPG with 2.3 blocks per game on 60% shooting from the field. He opened with a 31-point, 27-rebound effort against Furman in the first round and added 26 points and nine rebounds in a historic comeback win over Duke. He isn't the biggest star on his own team - Alex Karaban owns that honor - but he has the best chance to win MOP in the market.

🏀 More March Madness MVP favorites by win probability

Here are the other top contenders to win the award sorted by team and the latest win probabilities via Kalshi:

Arizona's MOP candidates

• Koa Peat (8%, +1150): The freshman forward is averaging 17.5 PPG and 6.8 RPG in the tournament and is Arizona's best threat down low. He has the highest upside of the Wildcats' top three stars but could have the lowest floor, too.
• Jaden Bradley (8%, +1150): Bradley has been the Wildcats' floor general and facilitator, though his scoring numbers trail both Burries and Peat in the tournament. The vote-splitting risk between Burries, Peat, and Bradley is part of why no individual Arizona player is priced above 13%.
• Ivan Kharchenkov (<1%, 4¢): The 6-foot-7 forward is a major long shot in this market despite averaging 14 PPG and 6.5 RPG through four tournament games.
• Motiejus Krivas (<1%, 2¢): At 7-foot-2, Krivas has the potential to break out in the Final Four, but his low scoring volume makes him a tough sell.

UConn's MOP candidates

• Alex Karaban (1%, +9900): I'm shocked Karaban is dealing as such a massive long shot, though his 5-point performance in the Elite Eight has depressed his value. Still, there's upside here as a senior leader and two-time champion.
• Solo Ball (<1%, 3¢): Ball scored in double figures in both East regional games, but he'd need a career effort over the next two games to have any real shot at MOP honors.

Michigan's MOP candidates

• Morez Johnson Jr. (4%, +2400): Johnson finished second in scoring with 12 against Tennessee, his third game in double figures this tournament, but Lendeborg's dominance makes it hard to see the MOP going to a supporting player.
• Aday Mara (3%, +3233): When you're 7-foot-3 and lead the nation in blocks per game (2.6), it's hard to count you out entirely. That's why Mara is trading at 3% despite serving a secondary role in the Wolverines' offense.
• Elliot Cadeau (<1%, 2¢): The former star prospect and UNC transfer had 10 assists against Tennessee, but his lower scoring volume makes it tough to compete with Lendeborg for MVP consideration.

More Final Four predictions & expert picks

• Illinois vs. UConn prediction
• Michigan vs. Arizona prediction
• Final Four power rankings
• Final Four survivor picks

⚖️ How to trade on March Madness

What is Kalshi and how does it work?

Kalshi is a U.S.-regulated prediction market exchange overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), where users trade on real-world outcomes using simple yes/no contracts. For the 2026 NCAA Tournament, that means markets tied to questions like which team wins the national championship, which player wins tournament MVP honors, and more related markets.

Each contract pays out $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it does not. If you think Arizona will win the national championship and buy a "Yes" contract at 35 cents, that implies a 35% chance. If Arizona wins, the contract settles at $1, netting you 65 cents per share. If Arizona loses, it settles at $0. Prices fluctuate in real time as users buy and sell, so the market reflects the crowd's collective expectations and shifts with every upset, injury update, and bracket result across the tournament's three weeks.

How to read prediction market odds

Kalshi displays prices in cents, which represent the implied probability of an outcome. Arizona at 35 cents means the market prices a 35% chance the Wildcats win the championship - buy "Yes" at 35 cents and collect $1 if they win, profiting 65 cents along the way.

Here's a simple breakdown of the conversion from Kalshi prices to American odds:

How does Kalshi differ from sports betting?

If you've ever placed a bet at a sportsbook, Kalshi will feel familiar but work differently in a few important ways. At a traditional sportsbook, you bet against the house at a fixed line. The book sets the odds, builds in a margin (the "vig"), and you either win or lose at those terms.

On Kalshi, there is no house. You trade directly with other users in an open market. Prices are expressed in cents as implied probabilities rather than traditional American odds. A contract priced at 20 cents implies a 20% chance of winning - the same information as American odds, just presented differently. There is no vig baked into a fixed line; instead, the spread between the buy and sell price is how the market operates.

The other major difference is flexibility. A sportsbook bet is locked in once placed. On Kalshi, you can sell your contract at any time before the tournament ends - locking in a profit if the price has moved in your favor, or cutting your loss if your team gets upset.