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Montana State vs. Kansas State Predictions, Odds & Picks: Can Wildcats Avoid March Madness Upset?

Philip Wood

Last Updated: March 17, 2023 10:10 AM EDT • 2 min 59 sec read.

Keyontae Johnson of the Kansas State Wildcats reacts after hitting a 3-point shot in the first half against the Kansas Jayhawks at Bramlage Coliseum in Manhattan, Kansas. Photo by Peter Aiken/Getty Images via AFP.
Keyontae Johnson of the Kansas State Wildcats reacts after hitting a 3-point shot in the first half against the Kansas Jayhawks at Bramlage Coliseum in Manhattan, Kansas. Photo by Peter Aiken/Getty Images via AFP.

The upset-minded Montana State Bobcats will take on the Kansas State Wildcats in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Here is the best Montana State vs. Kansas State prediction based on the top NCAAB odds.

The Bobcats ended the regular season by winning 13 of 14 and eight in a row, as they rolled through Big Sky competition. At 25-9, they are led by Raequan Battle who averages 17.4 points per game. Though they have a solid record, they are 0-2 against Power Five competition this season, losing by an average of 25.5 points per game.

The Wildcats haven’t won a game since March 1 after losing to the TCU Horned Frogs in their first Big 12 tournament game. Throughout the season, they have pulled off numerous impressive wins, including beating the Baylor Bears twice, while also knocking off the Kansas Jayhawks and Texas Longhorns.

Here is our best Montana State vs. Kansas State prediction (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Montana State vs. Kansas State odds

Montana State vs. Kansas State prediction

Kansas State -8.5 (-110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

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This game is a mismatch in all facets. After playing a grueling schedule, the Wildcats still managed to produce the 66th-highest-scoring offense in America behind the play of Keyontae Johnson and Markquis Nowell. They ended the season ranked 51st in adjusted offensive efficiency on KenPom.

But the defensive side is where the Wildcats have the real advantage. KenPom has them 19th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, and they are allowing just 69 points per game. The Bobcats are averaging 71 points per game this season, but considering their competition, it is hard to imagine they come anywhere near that number in this game.

Check out our March Madness best bets for Friday! Our Mike Spector went 3-1 on Thursday's games.

Johnson will be able to take advantage of mismatches down low all day, as the Bobcats do not have an answer for him in the paint. And if Battle or another Bobcat gets hot, the Wildcats still have enough offensive firepower to remain ahead.

The only reason this is a three-star play and not a four-star play is that teams tend to take their foot off the gas late in games if they have a huge lead. This could be a prime spot for a backdoor cover as the Wildcats look ahead to their matchup on Sunday.

Check out our best March Madness odds and Wooden Award odds.

Montana State vs. Kansas State best odds

FanDuel (-110)

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsPointsBet
-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5
-110-110-110-110-110

It is very rare that you see the five major sportsbooks in such agreement. Each of them has the same spread and price listed for this game, which makes it hard to find value in one over the other. 

We recommend FanDuel, as we do think this total is going to go Under and they’re offering the highest number right now. So, if you want to parlay, that’s the place to do it.

Montana State vs. Kansas State odds analysis

The spread has not moved at all off the consensus opening line of Kansas State -7.5, even though the Wildcats are seeing 63% of wagers placed on them as of Friday morning. This is a complete mismatch, and it is a late game Friday, so bettors and oddsmakers may be waiting to see what to do with this line until after they see other results.

This total opened at 138.5, and though it has stayed there at some of the major sportsbooks, it has gone up to 139 and even 139.5 at others. As of Friday morning, 52% of the betting action has been on the Under.

Montana State vs. Kansas State game info

  • Date: Friday, March 17, 9:40 p.m. ET
  • TV: CBS
  • Location: Greensboro Coliseum, Greensboro, NC

Montana State vs. Kansas State pick made 03/15/2023 at 1:50 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
Philip Wood
Phil is a Sports Betting Analyst for Sportsbook Review and BettingPros.com, specializing in NFL and college football. He previously covered college football and college basketball for CanesInsight.com, where he also hosted the College Football Pick 'Em podcast. Phil is always looking for value, especially on lines that just seem too good to be true. His belief is if a line doesn't make sense, just assume that Vegas knows something you don't. An alumnus of The U, Phil always holds out hope that the next head coach will be the one who turns the football program around. Some would call him a frontrunner for his love of the Yankees and the Celtics, but he's also a diehard Detroit Lions fan and will never forgive the refs for the blown pass interference call against the Cowboys in 2015.