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Tyler Kolek of the Marquette Golden Eagles shoots as we look at our Michigan State vs. Marquette prediction
Tyler Kolek of the Marquette Golden Eagles shoots the ball against the Vermont Catamounts during the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Nationwide Arena on Mar. 17, 2023 in Columbus, Ohio. Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images via AFP.

With a Sweet 16 trip on the line, the seventh-seeded Michigan State Spartans are set to face the second-seeded Marquette Golden Eagles. Read on for our best Michigan State vs. Marquette prediction based on the top NCAAB odds.

Michigan State and Marquette face off Sunday with the winner heading to the second weekend in New York. The Spartans could be on the verge of another March Madness run under head coach Tom Izzo, who's actually just 23-22-2 against the spread in the NCAA Tournament. MSU recorded a 72-62 win over USC in the opening round.

Marquette took care of business against Vermont for a 78-61 victory, even though there was plenty of betting support on the Catamounts entering that game. Heat coach Shaka Smart’s Golden Eagles haven’t lost in over a month, but need one more win to earn their first Sweet 16 appearance since 2013.

Here is our best Michigan State vs. Marquette prediction (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Michigan State vs. Marquette odds

Michigan State vs. Marquette prediction

Marquette -2.5 (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Maybe we should just stop counting out the Golden Eagles. They were picked to finish ninth in the Big East in the preseason poll, only to win the conference by two games with a 17-3 record. Then bettors went against the Eagles in the conference tournament, just for them to cut down the nets after a 65-51 thumping of Xavier in the championship game.

Now Marquette is favored by a single possession against an inconsistent Michigan State unit that finished 11-8 in a mediocre Big Ten conference. According to Haslametrics, the Spartans rank a college basketball 293rd in consistency this season.

Check out our March Madness best bets and all of our top NCAA Tournament picks for Sunday

Part of that is due to Michigan State’s showing from long range this year. The Spartans sit an NCAAB third with a 39.4% 3-point percentage, but they're actually 301st in attempts from deep. The Spartans shoot well enough to make a deep run, but can you count on it when they don’t do it that often?

Marquette, meanwhile, delivered of late with a 10-game win streak heading into Sunday. The Golden Eagles have a sixth-ranked adjusted offensive efficiency, led by Tyler Kolek, one of the sports' best point guards. 

Assuming a thumb injury doesn’t hold him back, Kolek should have no problem dishing dimes to his teammates. Michigan State ranks in the 17th percentile at defending the roll man in the pick-and-roll, per Synergy Sports Technology, Marquette is in the 92nd percentile at scoring on such plays.

In a toss-up game, bet on the more consistent team led by the best player to prevail in this March Madness matchup. This four-star pick is playable at -3 or better, if you're riding with us on the Eagles.  

Check out our best March Madness odds and Wooden Award odds.

Michigan State vs. Marquette best odds

DraftKings (-110)


This line sits at 2.5 at most best sportsbooks, with PointsBet the lone exception hanging a 3-point spread. While we would lay up -3, take advantage of DraftKings' line to get the best deal.

Michigan State vs. Marquette odds analysis

Some bettors took an early 3.5-point spread on the underdog, but the line settled at 2.5. The favored Golden Eagles are backed by 76% of the betting action. The total sits at 141 as of Sunday morning after opening around 142, when betting lines were first released Friday evening. Bettors are backing the Under at a slight majority.

Michigan State vs. Marquette game info

  • Date: Sunday, March 19, 5:15 p.m. ET
  • TV: CBS
  • Location: Nationwide Arena, Columbus, OH

Michigan State-Marquette pick made 3/18/2023 at 11:47 a.m. ET.

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