The Casual Fan’s Guide to March Madness 2026: Contenders, Stars, and Sleepers
As Selection Sunday rapidly approaches (March 15), bracketologists across the country are coming out of their bunkers to project the NCAA Tournament, but as you turn your attention to college basketball, let me catch you up on what you've missed with my March Madness guide.
As you mentally prepare to fill out your bracket next month, I'll get you up to speed on the season thus far, from the legitimate title contenders to a historic freshman class to which programs look like they could make a Cinderella run.
See our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds.
🏆 The "heavy hitters": National title contenders
Get ready for the NCAA Tournament with the latest March Madness odds.
Michigan (23-1)
- Conference: Big Ten
- KenPom rating: No. 1 (offense: No. 6/defense: No. 1)
- Quad 1 record: 10-0
- Best player: Yaxel Lendeborg, F (14.3 PPG, 7.7 RPG)
- Best win/worst loss: 83-71 at Michigan State/91-88 vs. Wisconsin
Dusty May's team is the favorite to win it all, and for good reason. The Wolverines are a defensive juggernaut anchored by Yaxel Lendeborg, Aday Mara, and Morez Johnson Jr. Their length on the defensive end is as terrifying as their efficiency on the offensive end. The key to a run in March will be their guards being at their best, specifically Elliot Cadeau.
Arizona (23-1)
- Conference: Big 12
- KenPom rating: No. 2 (offense: No. 8/defense: No. 2)
- Quad 1 record: 9-1
- Best player: Brayden Burries, G (15.7 PPG, 1.6 SPG)
- Best win/worst loss: 71-67 at UConn/82-78 vs. Kansas
Though Arizona's undefeated season came to an end at the hands of Kansas, the Wildcats are right there with Michigan in terms of talent, depth, and versatility. Tommy Lloyd's team has a dynamic freshman duo (Brayden Burries, Koa Peat), a trusted senior running the point (Jaden Bradley), and a 7-foot-2 big protecting the rim (Motiejus Krivas). Arizona's size is scary.
Duke (22-2)
- Conference: ACC
- KenPom rating: No. 3 (offense: No. 9/defense: No. 3)
- Quad 1 record: 10-2
- Best player: Cameron Boozer, F (23 PPG, 10 RPG)
- Best win/worst loss: 67-66 vs. Florida/82-81 vs. Texas Tech
Duke hasn't been at quite the same level as Michigan and Arizona, but the Blue Devils are the clear third-best team in the country thus far. They also have the best player in college basketball, Cameron Boozer, who's a double-double machine that's as consistent as any player in recent memory. Jon Scheyer has the pieces around him, too, but it's a young lineup.
Houston (22-2)
- Conference: Big 12
- KenPom rating: No. 4 (offense: No. 5/defense: No. 6)
- Quad 1 record: 7-2
- Best player: Kingston Flemings, G (16.6 PPG, 5.4 APG)
- Best win/worst loss: 77-66 at BYU/76-73 vs. Tennessee
While Houston still has a top defense, it's not as elite as it's been in the past. However, the Cougars make up for it by having their best offense under Kelvin Sampson. The addition of five-star freshman Kingston Flemings and Chris Cenac Jr. to a lineup with veterans Emanuel Sharp, Milos Uzan, and JoJo Tugler makes Houston one of the most well-rounded teams.
Florida (18-6)
- Conference: SEC
- KenPom rating: No. 5 (offense: No. 14/defense: No. 4)
- Quad 1 record: 7-5
- Best player: Thomas Haugh, F (17.5 PPG, 6.3 RPG)
- Best win/worst loss: 98-94 at Vanderbilt/84-80 vs. TCU
The defending champions got off to a tough start, losing four of their first nine games, but three of those losses came to top-six teams. Although questions remain about the backcourt, Todd Golden has a team capable of making a push to the Final Four. The Gators have the best frontcourt in the country with Thomas Haugh, Rueben Chinyelu, and Alex Condon.
Illinois (20-5)
- Conference: Big Ten
- KenPom rating: No. 6 (offense: No. 1/defense: No. 30)
- Quad 1 record: 6-4
- Best player: Keaton Wagler, G (18.5 PPG, 4.3 APG)
- Best win/worst loss: 88-82 at Purdue/92-90 vs. Wisconsin
On a good night, Illinois looks capable of reaching its first Final Four in two decades. Brad Underwood has one of the biggest teams in the country, with seven of his top eight standing between 6-foot-6 and 7-foot-2. And Illinois' secret sauce is a pair of freshmen, Keaton Wagler and David Mirkovic, who have stepped up while senior leader Kylan Boswell was injured.
UConn (23-2)
- Conference: Big East
- KenPom rating: No. 8 (offense: No. 21/defense: No. 8)
- Quad 1 record: 6-2
- Best player: Silas Demary Jr., G (11.2 PPG, 6.3 APG)
- Best win/worst loss: 77-73 vs. Florida/81-72 at St. John's
This year, UConn is a lot closer to Dan Hurley's championship squads than last year's disappointing team. The Huskies have a top defense, with Tarris Reed Jr. protecting the rim and Silas Demary Jr. swarming ball-handlers. Mainstay Alex Karaban is still here, too, but the most important piece to another title run may be sharpshooting freshman Braylon Mullins.
Other contenders to know
- Iowa State (21-3)
- Purdue (20-4)
- Kansas (19-5)
- Michigan State (20-5)
- Gonzaga (24-2)
🌟 Wooden Award watch: 6 stars you need to know
Don't miss the latest Wooden Award odds.
Cameron Boozer, Duke
- Stats: 23 PPG, 10 RPG, 4 APG, 38.3% 3P%
- BPR ranking: No. 1 (OBPR: No. 1 /DBPR: No. 11)
He may not be the flashiest player, or even the top draft prospect, but Boozer is the runaway favorite to win the Wooden Award. The 6-foot-9, 250-pound freshman is the only player in the country leading his conference in points and rebounds per game. The son of former NBA All-Star Carlos Boozer has been the most consistent player in the country from the jump.
Yaxel Lendeborg, Michigan
- Stats: 14.3 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 3.2 APG, 1.4 BPG, 1.3 SPG
- BPR ranking: No. 2 (OBPR: No. 4/DBPR: No. 1)
Despite not putting up the same scoring numbers as other All-American candidates, Lendeborg is the top two-way player in the country. The senior is the best defender on the nation's best defense, and a force down low. Lendeborg is a grown man playing bully ball, who's capable of carrying the Wolverine's offense (averaging 18.2 PPG in ranked matchups).
Braden Smith, Purdue
- Stats: 15.1 PPG, 8.8 APG, 3.8 RPG, 41.9% 3P%
- BPR ranking: No. 3 (OBPR: No. 2/DBPR: No. 58)
Purdue has not lived up to its billing as the preseason March Madness favorite, but Braden Smith has proven to be the best guard in the sport. Nobody in college basketball rivals him as a passer - he's 109 assists away from setting the NCAA record. He's also a lethal shooter with the scoring prowess to put the Boilermakers on his back come March.
Jeremy Fears Jr., Michigan State
- Stats: 15.1 PPG, 9.2 APG, 2.6 RPG, 1.3 SPG
- BPR ranking: No. 4 (OBPR: No. 5/DBPR: No. 41)
Love him or hate him, Jeremy Fears Jr. is the perfect player for a Tom Izzo team. He's a pesky on-ball defender who flusters opponents and is among the feistiest players in the country, which sometimes blurs the line of what's legal on the court. An elite passer with a basketball IQ that rivals any player in the sport, Fears is capable of taking Izzo to another Final Four.
Joshua Jefferson, Iowa State
- Stats: 17.7 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 5.3 APG, 40.6% 3P%
- BPR ranking: No. 6 (OBPR: No. 28/DBPR: No. 15)
The most underrated All-American candidate in basketball, Joshua Jefferson, is the best point-forward in the nation. He's a flashy passer for a man of his size (6-foot-9, 240) who uses his strength to overwhelm defenders in the paint while still providing a threat as a shooter. Jefferson also leads a defense that has the Cyclones looking like a Final Four candidate.
AJ Dybantsa, BYU
- Stats: 24.5 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 3.7 APG, 37.2% 3P%
- BPR ranking: No. 11 (OBPR: No. 7/DBPR: No. 150)
AJ Dybantsa looked like he could give Boozer a run for his money in the Wooden Award race, and while he's dropped off, the freshman isn't to blame; BYU's losses are (2-5 stretch). Dybantsa is the most gifted scorer in the country at 6-foot-9 with guard skills - he leads the nation in PPG. Nobody is going to want to deal with the projected top-three pick in March.
🩸 New blood: Non-traditional programs shining
Looking to back a non-traditional program to make an NCAA Tournament run? Dive into the Final Four odds.
Vanderbilt (20-4)
- Conference: SEC
- KenPom rating: No. 13 (offense: No. 13/defense: No. 22)
- Quad 1 record: 7-3
- Best player: Tyler Tanner, G (18.9 PPG, 5.3 APG)
- Best win/worst loss: 96-90 vs. Alabama/92-91 vs. Oklahoma
Between 2012 and 2023, Vanderbilt had won 20-plus games just once. In Mark Byington's first season last year, the team went 20-13 before losing in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. This year, Byington has the Commodores among the best teams in the country with a superstar guard in Tyler Tanner. Vandy is poised to earn a top-four seed.
Nebraska (21-3)
- Conference: Big Ten
- KenPom rating: No. 14 (offense: No. 38/defense: No. 11)
- Quad 1 record: 5-3
- Best player: Pryce Sandfort, F (17 PPG, 39.8% 3P%)
- Best win/worst loss: 58-56 vs. Michigan State/80-77 vs. Purdue
It's taken some time, but Fred Hoiberg has finally turned Nebraska into a basketball school. Since 1998, the Cornhuskers have made the NCAA Tournament just twice, including two seasons ago under Hoiberg. This season, they have one of the best defenses in the country and an offense that leans heavily on 3-pointers. Pryce Sandfort could carry this team deep.
🔭 The "Saturday night scout": NBA prospects to watch
Check out our breakdown of this historically dominant freshman class filled with future NBA lottery picks.
Darryn Peterson, G, Kansas
- Stats: 20.5 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 41.9% 3P%, 1.3 SPG
- NBA draft consensus big board ranking: No. 1
- NBA comparison: Devin Booker
It's not hard to understand why Darryn Peterson is the projected No. 1 pick. He moves differently than everyone on the court with an absurd blend of explosiveness and control. The problem is ... he's not always on the court. Peterson's had a strange season mired by injury, illness, and minute restrictions. He's only played more than 30 minutes six times this season.
AJ Dybantsa, G/F, BYU
- Stats: 24.5 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 3.7 APG, 37.2% 3P%
- NBA draft consensus big board ranking: No. 2
- NBA comparison: Tracy McGrady
When you see a player as tall and smooth as Dybantsa, you can't help but see a little bit of Kevin Durant. And while comparing a prospect to KD is ludicrous, Dybantsa is the most prolific scorer in the country at just 19 years old. He's only getting better, too, with the freshman averaging 26.3 PPG in conference play, and the Big 12 is the country's best conference.
Cameron Boozer, F, Duke
- Stats: 23 PPG, 10 RPG, 4 APG, 38.3% 3P%
- NBA draft consensus big board ranking: No. 3
- NBA comparison: Kevin Love
Although Boozer is essentially a lock at this point to win the Wooden Award as the best player in college basketball, he's not viewed as having the same ceiling as Peterson and Dybantsa. He's a high-floor player who can own the interior as a scorer and rebounder with his power, while still adding 3-point ability. Athleticism and defensive upside are his big questions.
Caleb Wilson, F, North Carolina
- Stats: 19.8 PPG, 9.4 RPG, 1.5 SPG, 1.4 BPG
- NBA draft consensus big board ranking: No. 4
- NBA comparison: Evan Mobley
Despite a fractured hand, it sounds like Caleb Wilson will be back for the NCAA Tournament. That's huge for UNC, but also for his NBA draft outlook. Wilson has arguably the most defensive potential in the draft class with his fluidity and rim-protecting. And while his offensive game is still developing, his footwork and passing out of the post pop.
Kingston Flemings, PG, Houston
- Stats: 16.6 PPG, 5.4 APG, 36.5% 3P%, 1.8 SPG
- NBA draft consensus big board ranking: No. 5
- NBA comparison: De'Aaron Fox
The injection of offense that Flemings has provided for Houston as a true freshman is jaw-dropping. He's among the fastest players in the country with an elite first step to get to the rim. And his quickness translates on defense, too, where he's one of the best on-ball defenders in the country. Plus, he has the passing instincts to set others up.
Keaton Wagler, G, Illinois
- Stats: 18.5 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 4.3 APG, 43.7% 3P%
- NBA draft consensus big board ranking: No. 6
- NBA comparison: Jamal Murray
The consensus top five players in the draft aren't shocking; they were all five-star recruits ranked in the top 10. Wagler is the anomaly. He was ranked outside the top 100 recruits, and has burst onto the scene as the star of the best offense in the country. The freshman's range as a shooter, passing out of the pick-and-roll, and IQ have skyrocketed him up the board.
Other NBA prospects to know
- Darius Acuff Jr., G, Arkansas
- Braylon Mullins, G, UConn
- Mikel Brown Jr., PG, Louisville
- Koa Peat, F, Arizona
- Nate Ament, F, Tennessee
- Brayden Burries, G, Arizona
- Jayden Quaintance, C, Kentucky (injured)
👠 "Cinderella" watch: Mid-majors to track
Check out all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions this season.
Saint Louis (24-1)
- Conference: Atlantic 10
- KenPom rating: No. 24 (offense: No. 40/defense: No. 19)
- Quad 1 record: 2-0
- Best player: Robbie Avila, C (12.8 PPG, 4.3 APG)
- Best win/worst loss: 71-70 vs. Santa Clara/78-77 vs. Stanford
Saint Louis is the clear top Cinderella this March. The Billikens are one of the most efficient teams in the country and can make a push to the final weekend of the NCAA Tournament. Robbie Avila has a rare skill set for a big and is set to become a borderline celebrity in a few weeks. Head coach Josh Schertz is the hottest coaching candidate in the country.
Utah State (21-3)
- Conference: Mountain West
- KenPom rating: No. 25 (offense: No. 28/defense: No. 38)
- Quad 1 record: 3-2
- Best player: Mason Falslev, G (16.1 PPG, 2.2 SPG)
- Best win/worst loss: 86-66 at New Mexico/86-76 vs. UNLV
The success of Saint Louis has overshadowed Utah State to some degree, but the Aggies are just as dangerous. They have one of the most gifted backcourts in the country with MJ Collins and Mason Falslev, both of whom could carry the Aggies in March. Head coach Jerrod Calhoun is the next Utah State bench boss poised to make the jump to a high-major.
Santa Clara (22-5)
- Conference: West Coast Conference
- KenPom rating: No. 38 (offense: No. 29/defense: No. 59)
- Quad 1 record: 1-3
- Best player: Christian Hammond, G (16.4 PPG, 40.2% 3P%)
- Best win/worst loss: 62-54 vs. Saint Mary's/80-78 vs. Loyola Chicago
While Gonzaga and Saint Mary's are technically mid-majors in the WCC, they both make the Big Dance every year. Rival Santa Clara hasn't made it since 1996, when it had Steve Nash. This would be the fourth different program head coach Herb Sendek has taken to March Madness. And this team has the offense to pressure a higher seed on the first weekend.
Miami (OH) (25-0)
- Conference: MAC
- KenPom rating: No. 83 (offense: No. 61/defense: No. 149)
- Quad 1 record: 0-0
- Best player: Peter Suder, G (14.2 PPG, 4.3 APG)
- Best win/worst loss: 76-73 vs. Akron/no losses
There's one team in the country that's undefeated, and it's not even the highest-rated team in its own conference by KenPom (Akron). While Miami (OH) hasn't lost a game, it's also played one of the weakest schedules in the country. Still, Travis Steele's team leads the nation in PPG (92.6) and has a scary trio of shooters in Peter Suder, Brant Byers, and Eian Elmer.
Other mid-majors to know
- New Mexico (19-6)
- Tulsa (20-5)
- Liberty (21-3)
- Belmont (23-4)
- Yale (19-4)
- San Diego State (17-6)
📅 March Madness key dates
- Selection Sunday: Sunday, March 15 (6 p.m. ET)
- First Four: Tuesday, March 17 & Wednesday, March 18
- First round: Thursday, March 19 & Friday, March 20
- Second round: Saturday, March 21 & Sunday, March 22
- Sweet 16: Thursday, March 26 & Friday, March 27
- Elite Eight: Saturday, March 28 & Sunday, March 29
- Final Four: Saturday, April 4
- NCAA championship game: Monday, April 6
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