Best March Madness First Round Upsets: Moneyline Picks & Round 1 Parlay With +1439 Odds
The early-round upsets and Cinderella stories are what makes the NCAA Tournament appeal to so many.
We took a deep dive through the NCAA Tournament bracket and analyzed all 32 first-round matchups to come up with our three best March Madness Round 1 upset picks. Not only are we making individual moneyline wagers on these three picks, but we are also adding them to a three-leg parlay as part of our March Madness predictions.
👉 Want AI-driven bracket insights? Check out our full March Madness AI bracket predictions with score predictions for every game.
🏀 Top March Madness upset picks in NCAA Tournament first round
Here are my three best March Madness upset picks for the first round of the NCAA Tournament along with the best moneyline odds and parlay from our best sports betting sites. Be sure to check out our guide on how to predict March Madness upsets.
🚨 No. 11 VCU over No. 6 BYU
🗓️ Game info: Thursday, 4:05 p.m. ET (TNT)
📊 Best odds: +143 via Caesars
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From an X’s and O’s standpoint, everything has me leaning VCU’s way in this contrast of styles. VCU is at a geographic disadvantage, playing at altitude just four days after its conference tournament ended against an altitude-acclimated BYU team.
However, the Rams had two opportunities to play at altitude this year against Colorado State in Las Vegas and in New Mexico. They split those two games against NCAA Tournament teams. I expect VCU’s press (it ranks in the 99th percentile in press rate) will give BYU’s turnover-prone guards (BYU ranked 12th in league play in turnover rate) fits.
In addition, VCU allows catch-and-shoot opportunities at an extremely low rate (13th percentile) and ranks in the 91st percentile in efficiency in that metric defensively. That should disrupt BYU’s more finesse half-court style.
The fact that No. 11 seeds have won exactly half of the 24 meetings with No. 6 seeds since 2018 has me even more confident in predicting a Rams upset.
See my full BYU vs. VCU prediction.
🚨 No. 10 Utah State over No. 7 UCLA
🗓️ Game info: Thursday, 9:25 p.m. ET (TNT)
📊 Best odds: +195 via bet365
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After playing conference foes for more than the last two months, the NCAA Tournament provides opportunities to pit teams unfamiliar with each other that present drastic clashes of styles. That figures to be Utah State’s advantage over UCLA in this matchup.
The Aggies play zone at a top-seven rate nationally, using it on two-thirds of their defensive possessions. UCLA is not used to seeing much zone defense at all in the Big Ten, facing it on just 6% of its possessions all season.
In the two games UCLA saw zone on more than 12 possessions in league play (against Iowa and Indiana), the Bruins did not average more than one point per possession against it in either game.
These teams have very compact defenses that make opponents shoot a high volume of 3-pointers. Both rank in the top 35 in the highest percentage of opponents’ shots coming from beyond the arc.
In that regard, I am favoring Utah State, which ranks in the top 70 nationally in 3-point shooting percentage, and shot a Mountain West-best 38.9% from deep in league play.
See Brenden Schaeffer's UCLA vs. Utah State prediction.
🚨 No. 12 UC San Diego over No. 5 Michigan
🗓️ Game info: Thursday, 10 p.m. ET (TBS)
📊 Best odds: +125 via BetMGM
No. 12 seeds have beaten No. 5 seeds eight times in 24 meetings since 2018, and oddsmakers give UC San Diego a great chance of adding to that number given the near coin-flip point spread.
Just like VCU is at a disadvantage playing at altitude against a West Coast team, so too is Michigan, who is playing this game in altitude just four days after the gauntlet of winning the Big Ten tournament.
Arguably the most impressive statistic regarding the 30-win Tritons is that they press at a bottom-10 rate nationally, but still generate turnovers at a 23.7% rate, second-best in all of D-I.
On paper, Michigan trotting out a lineup of two 7-footers should pose problems for a Tritons frontcourt that stands 6-foot-6 and 6-foot-8. But this reminds me of how FDU upset Purdue in the tournament, using quickness and a big turnover advantage to turn the tide in its favor.
UC San Diego will pick-and-roll Michigan to death, and figure to have many clean possessions with the seventh-best turnover rate in the country.
The Tritons are amid the nation’s longest active winning streak at 15 games, so they have the pedigree to pull off an upset here.
See Phil Wood's Michigan vs. UC San Diego prediction.
💰 Best March Madness first round upsets moneyline parlay
We're combining our three best March Madness upset picks into a lucrative parlay with +1439 odds via BetMGM, which would turn a $10 bet into a $143.90 profit if all three teams win in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.
🔥 Parlay: VCU ML + Utah State ML + UC San Diego ML (+1439 via BetMGM)
💰 Wager $10 → Win $143.90
💰 Wager $50 → Win $719.50
Bonus bets will expire in 7 days. One new customer offer only. Additional terms and conditions apply.
👉 Want more upset picks? Check out our latest college basketball picks and the rest of our March Madness first-round predictions.
🔮 March Madness predictions for every game today
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- BYU vs. VCU prediction
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- Texas A&M vs. Yale prediction
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- UCLA vs. Utah State prediction
- St. John's vs. Omaha prediction
- Michigan vs. UC San Diego prediction
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👑 Best March Madness betting sites
Ready to place your March Madness bets? Check out the best March Madness betting promos from our best March Madness betting sites, as determined by our expert team at Sportsbook Review.
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