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Head coach Kim Mulkey of the LSU Lady Tigers as we look at our LSU vs. Virginia Tech predictions
Head coach Kim Mulkey of the LSU Lady Tigers reacts during a game against the Miami Hurricanes in the NCAA Women's Basketball Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena in Greenville, South Carolina. Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images via AFP.

While the defending national champion takes on the AP Player of the Year in one women's Final Four matchup, LSU will play Virginia Tech in the other for a trip to the national championship. Read on for our LSU vs. Virginia Tech prediction based on the top NCAAB odds.

In the first game of two women's college basketball Final Four matchups on Friday, LSU will meet Virginia Tech in Dallas, with the winner getting the opportunity to play for a national championship against the winner of Iowa vs. South Carolina; you can check out our Iowa vs. South Carolina predictions here. 

Despite being the No. 1 seed in this matchup, Virginia Tech is actually a short underdog ahead of tipoff. The Hokies (31-4) earned a 84-74 win over Ohio State to get here, and have won all four of their tournament games by nine or more points.

The third-seeded Tigers (32-2) are coming off a 54-42 win over Miami, which followed a 66-63 victory over Utah the round before. In just the second year with head coach Kim Mulkey at the helm, LSU has the opportunity to compete for the national title for the first time since 2008.

Here is our best LSU vs. Virginia Tech prediction (odds via BetMGM; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

LSU vs. Virginia Tech prediction

LSU -1.5 (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐

It might seem too good to be true, but there is a reason why the lower seed is favored in this game. HerHoopStats, an analytical website devoted to women’s basketball, actually projects a final score of 70.6-65.3 in LSU’s favor. Those projections give the Tigers a 67.6% chance of winning Friday’s game.

LSU ranks fifth in the country in scoring, averaging 81.8 points per game this season. The Tigers are led by forward Angel Reese, who is averaging 23.2 points and 15.7 rebounds per contest. Reese has recorded a double-double in five consecutive outings and nine of the last 10 games.

Virginia Tech is an efficient squad, playing at a slower pace and making things count from long range. The Hokies are 39th with a 3-point percentage of 34.8%, and get 32.3% of their production from beyond the arc. Yet LSU is 16th in the nation at defending the 3-ball, ranking in the 95th percentile at guarding long 3s via Synergy Sports Technology.

The Hokies run things through center Elizabeth Kitley, who is averaging 18.2 points and 10.7 rebounds per game. Kitley recorded only 12 points and eight rebounds against Tennessee on March 25, so a similar performance could be all LSU needs to win this game with some breathing room.

Virginia Tech hasn’t lost since Jan. 26, but LSU will be the best team it has faced in quite some time. The Tigers rank third in HerHoopStats’ overall ratings, while the Hokies are 10th. We are counting on LSU’s talent to ultimately prevail in what is considered a toss-up game by the betting odds.

LSU vs. Virginia Tech best odds

BetMGM (-115)

LSU -2LSU -1.5LSU -1.5LSU -2LSU -1.5

LSU is favored across our top sportsbook, but the spread varies from 1.5 to 2. BetMGM is offering the least amount of juice on LSU at -1.5 and therefore is our preferred shop for this bet.

This line is playable up to 2.5 before we’d recommend passing on the spread for this game.

LSU vs. Virginia Tech odds analysis

The spread and total have not moved much since lines were first released. The total for this matchup is sitting between 133 and 134 at most shops, which would point to this being a game played at Virginia Tech’s preferred pace.

Virginia Tech ranks 251st in possessions per 40 minutes, while LSU is 65th in that metric. The Hokies want to play in the half court, where they get a majority of their offensive production. According to Synergy, they scored 70 of their 84 points in the half court during last week’s double-digit win over Ohio State.

If LSU can assert its dominance in this matchup, perhaps this squad can cover the spread and go Over the low point total.

LSU vs. Virginia Tech game info

  • Date: Friday, March 31, 7 p.m. ET
  • TV: ESPN
  • Location: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX

LSU-Virginia Tech pick made 03/29/2023 at 10:30 a.m. ET.

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