Colorado State vs. Texas Prediction & March Madness Odds: Can Stevens Rebound After Poor Game?

Mike Spector

Last Updated: March 21, 2024 4:14 PM EDT • 3 min 36 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

The No. 7 Texas Longhorns and the No. 10 Colorado State Rams battle in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament, and we have your back with our top Colorado State vs. Texas prediction based on the best March Madness odds.

The Colorado State Rams squashed the Virginia Cavaliers in Tuesday's First Four matchup, setting up a showdown with the Texas Longhorns. The Rams cruised to a lopsided 67-42 win, preventing Cavaliers' offense from scoring a basket for almost 14 minutes of play. Virginia's meager 14 first-half ppf represented the lowest-scoring performance for an ACC team in an NCAA Tournament game since 2001.

Colorado State went 4-1 against Quad 1 and 2 opponents during the non-conference portion of the season and achieved a 9-9 record against teams in the top two quadrants in the Mountain West Conference.

During the Big 12 regular season, Texas posted a 9-9 record, contributing to their overall 20-12 record under head coach Rodney Terry as they head into the NCAA Tournament. Despite encountering five losses since February, they successfully prevented consecutive defeats. Notably, their last two road wins were against teams qualified for the NCAA Tournament, namely TCU and Texas Tech.

As part of our March Madness predictions, here is our best Colorado State vs. Texas prediction and college basketball picks (odds via our best March Madness betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Colorado State vs. Texas odds

Colorado State (No. 10) vs. Texas (No. 7) prediction: Midwest Region

Isaiah Stevens Over 14.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -120 via bet365

Rams point guard Isaiah Stevens scored just five points on five field goal attempts in their blowout win over Virginia. Even though Stevens has scored 14 or fewer points in three of the previous four games, bettors shouldn't overreact to Tuesday’s poor output, given Virginia’s unusually slow tempo and the fact that he was guarded by one of the best on-ball defenders in the country, Reece Beekman.

Stevens tends to play his best against elite competition, scoring 15-plus points in six of his previous eight games against NCAA Tournament teams heading into the First Four. He is the school’s all-time leading scorer and has the seventh-highest assist rate in Division I.

That means the ball is in his hands a lot, as evidenced by his top-seven ranking in the percentage of his team’s possessions and shots taken. Stevens should take advantage of a Longhorns defense that ranks so poorly in defending the 3-point line, and head coach Niko Medved’s extensive playbook should have the Longhorns’ heads spinning.

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Colorado State vs. Texas best odds

bet365 (-120)

DraftKings	FanDuel	BetMGM	Caesars	bet365
Over 14.5 points	Over 15.5 points	N/A	N/A	Over 14.5 points
-130	-104	N/A	N/A	-120

bet365 offers the best price at -120 and the best number for Over backers, with their O/U of 14.5 being one point lower than 15.5 at FanDuel. A $10 winning wager at -120 would pay out $18.33. The -120 odds, via our odds converter, have an implied probability of 54.55%.

We especially like the value of Stevens’ Over, given that he is the team’s leading scorer at 16.2 points per game, but he does not even have the highest projected total among Rams players, as that honor goes to Joel Scott (O/U 15.5).

Colorado State vs. Texas spread & Over/Under analysis

BetMGM opened the highest of all of our best sports betting sites with a spread of Texas -3.5, but that number was quickly back down to -2.5, which aligns with all other competitors except BetRivers, which has not moved off an opening number of -3. The Longhorns were one of the least profitable Big 12 teams this season, going 12-19-1 ATS, while Colorado State has covered 17 of its 33 games.

All of our top sports betting apps have O/Us of either 144.5 or 145, and none have moved off their opening numbers since Tuesday night. The Over cashed in 15 of Texas’s 19 Big 12 games but in just five of its 13 non-conference games.

Colorado State vs. Texas game info

When: Thursday, March 21
Tip-off: 6:50 p.m. ET
Where: Spectrum Center, Charlotte, N.C.
How to watch: TNT

Colorado State-Texas prediction made Thursday at 6:49 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”