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Arizona vs. UCLA Pac-12 Odds, Picks, Predictions: Will Injuries Cost the Bruins?

Mike Spector

Last Updated: March 11, 2023 8:59 AM EST • 3 min read.

Oumar Ballo of the Arizona Wildcats celebrates as we get into the latest Pac-12 conference odds.
Oumar Ballo of the Arizona Wildcats celebrates during the semifinal game of the Pac-12 basketball tournament at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images via AFP.

The Arizona Wildcats and UCLA Bruins have been the best two teams in the Pac-12 all season, so it is only fitting that they meet in Saturday's conference tournament championship. Read on for our Arizona vs. UCLA college basketball picks based on the top NCAAB odds.

For the second consecutive season, the top-two seeded Wildcats and Bruins meet in the Pac-12 tournament championship game, as Arizona won last year's tilt 84-76. Both earned spots in Saturday's championship on the heels of impressive 19-point semifinal victories. UCLA ended a three-game losing streak to Arizona with an 82-73 home victory in its season finale, and the teams have split the previous six meetings overall. As such, UCLA is a slight favorite over Arizona by the conference championship odds at our best March Madness betting sites.

Here is our best Arizona vs. UCLA college basketball pick (odds via Caesars; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our college basketball best bets for more on this matchup and the rest of Saturday's biggest games.

Arizona vs. UCLA odds

Arizona vs. UCLA prediction

Arizona-UCLA Over 148 (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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As discussed in our college basketball best bets, the injury bug is hitting UCLA hard and at precisely the wrong time, as it plays for a conference championship and heads into the NCAA Tournament. The Bruins are already without forward Jaylen Clark, who is out for the season due to an Achilles injury. Add center Adem Bona to that list of UCLA players who may miss Saturday's Pac-12 championship game, as he left Friday's win over Oregon with a shoulder injury and did not return. 

UCLA held Arizona to 65.5 points per game in splitting two regular-season meetings, 17.8 points below the Wildcats' season average. However, Arizona has a much higher offensive ceiling in this third meeting without Clark (arguably the Bruins' best perimeter defender) and Bona to help defend the Wildcats' massive frontcourt. 

This is a four-star play as Clark and Bona have UCLA's two highest Defensive Bayesian Performance Ratings (DBPR) per EvanMiya. In addition, the team has allowed .80 points per possession when on the floor together this season, per Synergy. 

Per ESPN Stats & Info, Arizona's frontcourt duo of Oumar Ballo and Azuolas Tubelis became the first pair of teammates each with 20-plus points on 75% field goal shooting in a Pac-12 tournament game since 2002 in its win over Stanford. While head coach Mick Cronin's shorthanded squad should provide more resistance than that, Arizona should still come much closer to its 83.3 points per game scoring average than it had in the first two meetings, making us love the chances of the Over cashing as a solid four-star play.

Arizona vs. UCLA best odds

Caesars (-110)

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsPointsBet
149148.5148.5148148
Over -110 | Under 149 -110Over -115 | Under -105Over -110 | Under -110Over -110 | Under -110Over -110 | Under -110

Over backers have their choice of Caesars or PointsBet for maximum value, with each charging standard -110 juice for a total of 148. Those are also the only two sportsbooks offering an O/U that low, as competing sportsbooks, DraftKings, FanDuel, or BetMGM, have their totals starting at 148.5.

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Arizona vs. UCLA odds analysis

UCLA opened as a consensus 1.5-point favorite overnight, but any line movement that has occurred since has moved in the direction of the Wildcats, who are at +1 or pick 'em across several of our best sports betting sites. That line movement is despite the fact that 67% of all point-spread wagers back the Bruins.

The O/U opened at 148.5 and can be found as low as 148 at Caesars and PointsBet. With the Over attracting 76% of all wagers, that number figures to rise slightly at most sportsbooks throughout the day.

Arizona vs. UCLA game info

  • Date: Saturday, March 11, 10:30 p.m. ET
  • TV: ESPN
  • Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV

Arizona-UCLA pick made 3/11/2023 at 8:02 a.m. ET.

Here are our best March Madness betting sites:

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Written By:
Mike Spector
I have been in the sports writing industry for over three years, working for sites like BettingPros/FantasyPros, Oddschecker, and Sportsbook Review. In my first year writing for BettingPros, I finished with the #2 overall record in their annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an over/under and moneyline perspective. I am an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, and all college sports. In my opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and I am especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. I am a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." Follow me on Twitter for my best bets and commentary to go along with the wagers.