🏀 Will Steve Kerr Be Fired? Warriors Coach Odds & Market Predictions
With the Golden State Warriors heading into a pivotal offseason and Stephen Curry’s window to win another ring narrowing, I've taken a deep dive into the question: Will Steve Kerr be fired?
I analyze the current sentiment on the best prediction market apps, explore why Kerr could be on the hot seat, make a prediction, and more.
📊 Will Steve Kerr be fired?
Follow all of our NBA analysis and expert predictions this season.
💰️ Kalshi promo code
Prediction market via Kalshi. You can use our Kalshi promo code for a $10 bonus by signing up today. Market subject to change.
The biggest shift we’ve seen in this market came when Kerr signed a two-year contract on May 9.
Three days earlier, Kerr’s probability of being out by Oct. 25, 2027, had peaked at 85.1%. Currently, his chances of parting ways with the Warriors before the 2027–28 season stand at just 39%.
Kerr’s probability of being out by Oct. 25 is trading at 10%, despite how rare it would be for a coach to sign a contract during the offseason and then not coach the team once the season begins. The most recent example was Ime Udoka in 2022, though he was initially suspended rather than fired.
📃 Affiliate disclosure
Sportsbook Review may receive a commission if you sign up through our links. Not intended for use in MA. Bonuses not applicable in Ontario. 21+ only. (Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
🏀 Steve Kerr coaching odds: Current market probabilities
Below is a look at current prediction market probabilities for whether Kerr will be out as head coach of the Warriors by key dates.
| Result | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| Out before July 1, 2026 | 10% | No offers |
| Out before Oct. 25, 2026 | 10% | 92% |
| Out before July 1, 2027 | 27% | 84% |
| Out before Oct. 25, 2027 | 39% | 77% |
Out before Oct. 25 (10%)
Short of a black swan event, there’s no reason for Kerr to part ways with the Warriors before the next NBA season begins. He just signed a two-year contract on May 9, and he told reporters six days later that he wants to rebuild a winning foundation as he, Curry, and Draymond Green enter the later stages of their careers.
Out before July 1, 2027 (27%)
Being out before July 1 is at least a realistic possibility, though I wouldn’t put it as high as 27%. In this scenario, the Warriors would need to grossly underperform to the point that general manager Mike Dunleavy believes moving on from Steve Kerr is the best path forward. The challenge with that argument is Kerr’s résumé: he has won four NBA championships as a coach, and owner Joe Lacob has prioritized winning. Unless a more accomplished coach suddenly becomes available, Kerr would still remain Lacob’s best option.
Out before Oct. 25, 2027 (39%)
Kerr parting ways with the Warriors before the start of the 2027–28 season is, on paper, the most realistic of these three outcomes. The issue, however, is similar to the “Out before July 1, 2027” scenario. The Warriors’ front office would either need to believe there is a better candidate available than Kerr - unlikely, though not impossible - or Golden State would have to pivot into a full-scale rebuild. Judging by Lacob’s past comments on tanking, it's unlikely that the organization would blow up the roster and move on from Kerr.
❓ Why could the Warriors fire Steve Kerr?
The two most likely reasons the Warriors could fire Kerr would be either (a) the team underperforms under him, or (b) the front office wants to tank.
The issue with the first option is that Kerr likely wouldn’t be blamed for the Warriors underperforming, as he won Coach of the Year in 2016. The second situation is also unlikely because the Warriors don’t have a recent history of tanking, and bringing back Kerr as the highest-paid coach in the league doesn’t signal a move toward a rebuild.
When Kerr eventually parts ways with the Warriors, it will likely be because he no longer wants to coach in the NBA.
🎯 Expert prediction: Will Steve Kerr finish his contract?
Kerr’s contemplation of whether to return to coaching suggests this may be his final hurrah, and that he will, in fact, complete his contract.
Since the deal is only for two years, it gives both parties the flexibility to end the relationship soon (whereas a longer contract would have increased the likelihood of the Warriors moving on as Curry ages out of his prime).
As it stands right now, Kerr will “never leave Steph Curry,” and the Warriors star just averaged 26.6 points per game this season, so he'll likely remain an All-Star-caliber player for at least two more seasons.
Prediction: Steve Kerr will be the Warriors' coach after Oct. 25, 2027 (77%)
📜 Golden State Warriors head coach history & regular-season win records
Below is a look at the Golden State Warriors' history of head coaches, including regular-season records and major achievements.
| Coach | Term | Regular season W-L (Win%) | Achievements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Kerr | 2014-present | 604-353 (.631) | Four championships (2015, 2017, 2018, 2022); 2015-16 NBA Coach of the Year |
| Mark Jackson | 2011-2014 | 121-109 (.526) | - |
| Keith Smart | 2010-2011 | 36-46 (.439) | - |
| Don Nelson | 2006-2010 | 145-183 (.442) | One of the top 10 coaches in NBA history |
| Mike Montgomery | 2004-2006 | 68-96 (.415) | - |
| Eric Musselman | 2002-2004 | 75-89 (.457) | - |
| Brian Winters | 2001-2002 | 13-46 (.220) | - |
| Dave Cowens | 2000-2001 | 25-80 (.238) | - |
| Garry St. Jean | 1999-2000 | 13-42 (.236) | - |
| P.J. Carlesimo | 1997-1999 | 46-113 (.289) | - |
| Rick Adelman | 1995-1997 | 66-98 (.402) | - |
| Bob Lanier | 1995 | 12-25 (.324) | - |
| Don Nelson | 1988-1995 | 277-260 (.516) | 1991-92 NBA Coach of the Year; one of the top 10 coaches in NBA history |
| Ed Gregory | 1988 | 4-14 (.222) | - |
| George Karl | 1986-1988 | 58-88 (.397) | - |
| Johnny Bach | 1983-1986 | 89-157 (.362) | - |
| Al Attles | 1980-1983 | 114-132 (.463) | - |
| Johnny Bach | 1980 | 6-15 (.286) | - |
| Al Attles | 1971-1980 | 394-323 (.550) | One championship (1975) |
Note: This list does not include coaches from the franchise’s Philadelphia Warriors or San Francisco Warriors eras.
💰 How to trade NBA prediction markets
See all of our experts' NBA picks.
What does an NBA prediction market measure?
An NBA prediction market measures the likelihood of a specific outcome - such as a coach being fired.
How do prices work?
- Prices range from 1 cent to 99 cents
- A 40-cent contract implies a 40% chance based on market consensus
- If the outcome occurs, the contract settles at $1
- If not, it settles at $0
Prices move as participants react to rumors and reports.
Can positions be exited early?
Yes. Contracts can typically be sold before a signing is decided. That flexibility allows participants to respond to breaking news or shifts in momentum rather than holding a position until the final outcome.
How is Kalshi different from sportsbooks?
Kalshi operates as an exchange, not a house. Participants trade directly with each other, and prices are set by supply and demand instead of fixed odds.
Key distinctions include:
- Probabilities shown in cents rather than traditional odds
- Focus on real-world outcomes, not margins or spreads
- Ability to adjust or close positions before resolution
Is Kalshi regulated?
Yes. Kalshi is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Market rules, settlement criteria, and contract definitions are published in advance.
Related Articles
