Warriors vs. Lakers Predictions, Picks & Odds: Will Golden State Even Series in Los Angeles?

Check out our top predictions for Monday's Warriors vs. Lakers playoff matchup based on the best NBA odds.

Shane Jackson

Last Updated: May 8, 2023 3:20 PM EDT • 4 minute read

The Los Angeles Lakers can take a 3-1 series lead over the Golden State Warriors in Monday's Game 4, but will they? Read on for our Warriors vs. Lakers prediction based on the best NBA odds.

With a chance to put the defending champs on the ropes, the Los Angeles Lakers hope to take care of business in Monday's matchup with the Golden State Warriors. This series has featured back-to-back blowouts, with Golden State securing a 127-100 victory in Game 2 and Los Angeles responding with a 127-97 win in Game 3.

Assuming key players will actually be on the court in the fourth quarter this time around, Game 4 could be a great opportunity to explore the player prop market. And we have our sights set on a LeBron James prop ahead of this pivotal Warriors-Lakers showdown.

Here is our best Warriors vs. Lakers prediction (odds via FanDuel; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Warriors vs. Lakers prediction

LeBron James Over 5.5 assists (-136 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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Assuming you watched Saturday's game with the sound on, you probably heard the announcers mention several times that LeBron James didn't take a shot in the first quarter. He eventually scored his first points of the night at the 6:32 mark in the second quarter before finishing with an efficient 21-point effort.

The best part, however, was that James kept making the right play while the announcers were pleading for him to be more aggressive. It is important to remember that the NBA's all-time leading scorer actually has a pass-first mentality, and that has suited his skill set throughout his 20-year career.

James dished out eight dimes in the Game 3 win over the Warriors after recording a total of seven assists across the first two games. Yet the opportunities have been there. James leads the team with an average of 11.3 potential assists per game, according to NBA.com, in a series where he is only averaging five per contest.

In the postseason, James is averaging 5.1 assists on 11.8 potential assists per game. This comes after the 2022-23 regular season, in which he averaged 6.8 dimes and 12.6 potential assists per contest.

With a chance to take a 3-1 series lead over the defending champs, we expect James to assert himself a bit more on the offensive end. Especially if Anthony Davis continues his trend of alternating bad performances in this crucial contest.

The ball will be in James' hands when it matters most, and good things tend to happen when that's the case. NumberFire projects James to record 6.9 assists in Game 4, which is why this recommendation has the confidence of a four-star pick.

Warriors vs. Lakers best odds

FanDuel (-136)

DraftKings	FanDuel	BetMGM	Caesars	PointsBet
Over 5.5 assists	Over 5.5 assists	Over 5.5 assists	Over 5.5 assists	Over 5.5 assists
-140	-136	-145	-139	-140

All of our best NBA betting sites have set this line at 5.5 assists, though most have juiced the Over to about -140. That's why we are placing this bet at FanDuel, which offers a nice discount of -136 to take the Over.

Based on NumberFire's projections, we are getting an edge of 16.26% by taking FanDuel's price. This is still playable up to -140, though our edge would drop down to about 14.85% at that those odds.

Warriors vs. Lakers odds

Check out our NBA Finals odds and NBA Finals MVP odds.

Warriors vs. Lakers odds analysis

The Lakers opened as 4-point favorites, though this line has dropped down to -2.5 at the best sportsbooks due to money coming in on the Warriors. We actually would recommend laying the points with Los Angeles as a four-star pick, particularly if you take advantage of the -105 vig at Caesars as of this writing.

The total for this game started at 228 before dropping down to a consensus line of 227.5 at the best sports betting sites.

Warriors vs. Lakers game info

Date: Monday, May 8, 10 p.m. ET
TV: TNT
Location: Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA

Warriors-Lakers pick made 05/08/2023 at 2:05 p.m. ET.

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Written by:
Shane Jackson

Shane Jackson has been writing for Sportsbook Review since 2022, though his passion for sports, writing, and betting runs much longer than that. He graduated from the University of Kansas with a journalism degree in 2017 and has been covering sports ever since, working for MLB.com, Manhattan Mercury, Lawrence Journal-World, WynnBET, Bet Chicago Sports, BetNOLA, and BetMGM. Jackson cares about creating quality sports betting content above all else. He uses a mixture of models, information, film, analysis, and a top-down approach to locate every best bet shared for SBR. He never gives out a pick that he wouldn’t be willing to spend his own money on. Jackson is focused on finding +EV bets on a daily basis for a variety of sports such as NCAAF, NCAAB, NFL, NBA, WNBA, and MLB. He usually bets on props but is willing to wager on a spread or total when there is an edge. Don’t ask him how many bets he has placed on a typical college football Saturday. Jackson doesn’t care if you follow him on social media, but his Twitter account has info on how you can follow his bets through multiple third-party platforms. He just wants you to read all the great work from the SBR team.