Best NBA Parlays Today: Picks, Predictions for Thursday's Games

Jon Metler analyzes the NBA player prop market and builds a same-game parlay for plus-money odds.

Jon Metler

Last Updated: May 11, 2023 1:35 PM EDT • 4 minute read

Will Joel Embiid and the Philadelphia 76ers send the Boston Celtics packing for Cancun? Jon Metler shares his favorite NBA same-game parlay for Thursday's slate using the latest NBA odds.

If James Harden visited a nightclub in Las Vegas between Games 5 and 6, the Boston Celtics will be in even more trouble than they already are, facing elimination.

You have two options: buy low on the Celtics and take their NBA Finals odds, or fade the Celtics, believing they're not living up to their power rating. Count me in on the fade side, and I have a same-game parlay based on this stance.

Here are our NBA SGP picks for Thursday (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook).

Thursday's NBA SGP picks

Game	Props	Combined Odds
Celtics-76ers	76ers moneyline, Maxey Over 2.5 assists, Tucker Over 3.5 points	+578

Not intended for use in MA
Affiliate Disclosure: Sportsbook Review may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook

Check out our parlay calculator here!

Celtics vs. 76ers odds

Check out our complete list of NBA odds here!

NBA SGP predictions: Celtics vs. 76ers

Philadelphia 76ers moneyline vs. Celtics (+118)

What evidence do we have from this series that justifies the Boston Celtics being a 2.5-point favorite on the road in Game 6? In my opinion, none. The odds are based on the Celtics' power rating for the entire season, but that's not the team we're seeing in the Eastern Conference semifinals.

I believe the 76ers will close out the series at home on Thursday, and they may even win by a large margin. Something seems off with the Celtics, whether it's Jaylen Brown already having one foot out the door or Joe Mazzulla coaching in his first NBA playoffs.

According to projections, the 76ers should be 1.5-point underdogs, which means we can price them at +112 on the moneyline. While it's not a huge edge, these projections are also based on the Celtics' statistics for the entire season, and the human factor tells me that's not the team we're watching now.

Tyrese Maxey Over 2.5 assists vs. Celtics (+110)

Doc Rivers has been giving Tyrese Maxey heavy minutes, playing him for 40-plus minutes in the last three games. Despite his high usage rate and speed, Maxey doesn't get as many assists as expected. However, during the playoffs, role players tend to shoot with more confidence when playing at home. If the 76ers' 3-pointers are falling, Maxey's assists could quickly add up.

Maxey is projected to get three assists in Thursday's game, which is the number we need for this prop to earn a green check mark. We can price Maxey at -125 to record more than 2.5 assists based on this projection.

PJ Tucker Over 3.5 points vs. Celtics (-132)

Speaking of role players shooting the ball with more confidence at home during the playoffs, let's hope that Maxey can find Tucker for a baseline three, which will give us an assist and three points from that play.

This prop will be a tough watch because we'll most likely be waiting for one shot the entire game, but Tucker isn't afraid of the moment, and with the Celtics on the ropes, you know he'll be ready.

Not only do I like the narrative with Tucker, but the numbers also support this bet. Doc Rivers has increased Tucker's minutes to 30-plus in the last two games, and the 76ers have won both.

Tucker is projected to score 4.7 points against the Celtics, so we can price this prop at -150. This prop is more exclusive to FanDuel because we see sportsbooks such as BetMGM trading the Over at -150 on Tucker, and Caesars is at -147.

Check out our NBA Finals odds and NBA Finals MVP odds.

NBA player prop picks made 05/11/2023 at 11:00 a.m. ET.

Here are our best NBA betting sites:

FanDuel: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets | Read our FanDuel Review
Caesars: Earn Up to a $1,250 Bet Credit | Read our Caesars Review
DraftKings: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets | Read our DraftKings Review
PointsBet: Earn Five Second-Chance Bets Up to $50 Each | Read our PointsBet Review
BetMGM: Get a Bonus Bet of Up to $1,000 | Read our BetMGM Review

(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.

Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)

Written by:
Jon Metler

Jon Metler is a Sports Betting Analyst at SportsbookReview.com. Having played, coached, and officiated basketball, he immediately turned his attention to the NBA and College Basketball when he entered the sports betting space. Sports betting has been a part of his life for over 13 years, and he specializes in futures markets and player props, particularly in the NBA. In pursuit of value, he keeps a close eye on movements in the betting markets. He believes strongly in analytics and staying ahead of the curve; let the numbers do the talking. A graduate of the University of Windsor with a degree in Sports Studies, Jon enjoys spending time with his dogs when he isn't watching basketball.