NBA Player Props & Best Bets Today: Schedule, Picks for Monday

Check out our NBA player props and best bets for Monday's schedule based on the best odds.

Jon Metler

Last updated: June 12, 2023 5:55 PM EDT • 5 min read

Will the Denver Nuggets be crowned NBA champions on Monday or can the Miami Heat push for a Game 6 and bring the series back to South Beach? Sportsbook Review betting analyst Jon Metler shares his top NBA player props and best bets for Monday's Game 5 using the top NBA odds from our best sports betting apps.

The Denver Nuggets have a commanding 3-1 series lead over the Miami Heat and are on the brink of becoming NBA champions. Given their strong position, it's difficult for Nuggets fans to resist the temptation of planning the victory parade already, especially with the team being favored by 9 points at our best sportsbooks in their upcoming home game on Monday.

A common narrative in the NBA playoffs is that role players tend to perform better when playing at home throughout the playoffs. We're hoping that this holds true because we have decided to run it back with a bet we placed on one of the Nuggets' role players in Game 4 for Game 5, using one of our best NBA betting sites.

Here are our top NBA player props and best bets for Monday (odds via best sports betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Monday’s NBA schedule and odds

(odds via FanDuel)

Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets (-8.5)

Monday’s NBA best bets

Player prop: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Over 7.5 points vs. Heat (+100 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Player prop: Michael Porter Jr. Over 0.5 assists vs. Heat (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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Monday’s NBA player prop picks

Player prop: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Over 7.5 points vs. Heat (+100 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

We placed a bet on Nuggets guard Kentavious Caldwell-Pope scoring Over 7.5 points in Game 4, but unfortunately, we lost by the hook as he finished with seven points. The Nuggets guard missed a free throw in the first half, and as I watched, I couldn't help but think to myself, "I hope that doesn't make the difference." Unfortunately, it did.

Despite the loss in Game 4, I still believe it was a good bet when analyzing the numbers, which is why I'm going with it again in Game 5. The sportsbooks adjusted his odds, and we adjusted our projections, but there's still value at this price point. Additionally, his clutch 3-pointer in the fourth quarter should boost his confidence going into Game 5.

Our projection indicates that Caldwell-Pope is expected to score 8.9 points against the Heat on Monday in Game 5 of the NBA Finals. Based on this projection, we can set the price for Caldwell-Pope to go Over the total of 7.5 points at -135. This implies a positive expected value of 15% for this bet.

Similar to Game 4, we can see how the adjustment from a total of 10.5 points in Game 1 and Game 2 to 7.5 points in Game 5 significantly affects the edge that can be found in this wager. The projection of 8.9 points would have forced us to bet the Under on a total of 10.5 points, but with the total set at 7.5 points, we have a significant edge with the Over.

I do anticipate this edge will dry up as the day progresses, so I recommend taking advantage of the even money odds at BetMGM without hesitation.

NBA best bets made 6/12/2023 at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Player prop: Michael Porter Jr. Over 0.5 assists vs. Heat (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

If you're someone who follows trends when placing bets, you might not be fond of this particular wager because Porter hasn't recorded an assist in any of the last three games. Take a moment to think about that: not a single pass leading to a basket. However, despite his recent struggles, I believe this presents an opportunity to place a bet in our favor because the odds have factored in his poor performance and may have overcorrected.

In Game 1, Porter had an assist total of 1.5, with the Over priced around -105. Now, that total has dropped to 0.5, with the Over priced at -115. This adjustment is substantial due to the already low total of 1.5 assists, and it cannot be compared to a situation where Nikola Jokic's assist total decreases from 10.5 to 9.5. The equivalent price of -105 for Over 1.5 assists is approximately -430 for 0.5 assists.

Our projection indicates that Porter is likely to have exactly one assist on Monday, allowing us to price the Over 0.5 assists at -150. However, we can place this bet at a more favorable price of -115 with bet365. This bet shows a positive expected value of 12% based on our projections.

In Game 4, there was steam on this prop just a few hours before tipoff, causing Porter Over 0.5 assists to climb as high as -167. So far, there hasn't been much movement in the market for this prop, but it wouldn't surprise me if it also gains momentum before Game 5. While I may not be a big fan of the player, I see value in the number, and I happily recommend taking advantage of the -115 odds offered by bet365 for a prop that I expect to see some movement in.

Michael Porter Jr. bet made 06/12/2023 at 2:30 p.m. ET.

Here are our best NBA betting sites:

FanDuel: $2,500 No Sweat First Bet | Read our FanDuel Review
Caesars: Earn Up to a $1,250 Bet Credit | Read our Caesars Review
DraftKings: Bet $5, Get $200 in Bonus Bets | Read our DraftKings Review
PointsBet: Earn Five Second-Chance Bets Up to $50 Each | Read our PointsBet Review
BetMGM: Get a Bonus Bet of Up to $1,000 | Read our BetMGM Review

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* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.

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Written By:
Jon Metler

Jon Metler is a Sports Betting Analyst at SportsbookReview.com. Having played, coached, and officiated basketball, he immediately turned his attention to the NBA and College Basketball when he entered the sports betting space. Sports betting has been a part of his life for over 13 years, and he specializes in futures markets and player props, particularly in the NBA. In pursuit of value, he keeps a close eye on movements in the betting markets. He believes strongly in analytics and staying ahead of the curve; let the numbers do the talking. A graduate of the University of Windsor with a degree in Sports Studies, Jon enjoys spending time with his dogs when he isn't watching basketball.