NBA Player Props & Best Bets Today: Schedule, Picks for Thursday

Check out our NBA player props and best bets for Thursday's schedule based on the best odds.

Last Updated: April 6, 2023 12:22 PM EDT • 5 minute read

Heavy favorites take center stage for Thursday’s five-game slate in the Association. Our top NBA player props and best bets for Thursday are based on the best NBA odds.

In a rare turn of events, the Orlando Magic open as heavy favorites at home against a Cleveland Cavaliers team that is looking ahead to the playoffs. Can the Phoenix Suns win and cover against the Denver Nuggets at home, and can we expect much scoring from the Portland Trail Blazers and San Antonio Spurs?

Joel Embiid delivered a massive performance in the Philadelphia 76ers’ win over the Boston Celtics, but can he replicate that performance against Bam Adebayo and the Miami Heat?

Here are our top NBA player props and best bets for Thursday (odds via BetMGM, BetRivers, DraftKings; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our NBA picks and our best NBA betting sites.

Thursday’s NBA schedule and odds

(odds via DraftKings)

Cleveland Cavaliers (+9.5) vs. Orlando Magic
Miami Heat (+3) vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Portland Trail Blazers (+4) vs. San Antonio Spurs
Oklahoma City Thunder (-6.5) vs. Utah Jazz
Denver Nuggets (+7.5) vs. Phoenix Suns

Thursday’s NBA best bets

Player prop: Joel Embiid Under 44.5 points + rebounds vs. Heat (-105 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
Spread: Magic -8.5 vs. Cavaliers (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
Spread: Suns -7 vs. Nuggets (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Total: Trail Blazers-Spurs Under 228 (-109 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐

NBA player prop picks

Joel Embiid Under 44.5 points + rebounds vs. Heat (-105 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

Embiid went off for 52 points in the 76ers’ big win over Boston on Tuesday, but we’re taking the Under tonight against Miami, and we’re getting good value while we do it. FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, and PointsBet all offer this prop at 41.5 with odds ranging from -111 to -117, but DraftKings is giving it to us all the way up at 44.5 with longer -105 odds.

Despite Embiid’s monster night against Boston, he’s gone for at least 45 PRs only twice in his last six games and in 27 of 65 games on the season. Embiid has hit this mark in one of seven games against Miami over the last three seasons and in just one of five in which he played 30 minutes. He’s faced Bam Adebayo three times and provided PR totals of 39, 37, and 8 (logged only 25 minutes).

Miami’s defense has been generous as of late, but Bam still ranks 10th in defensive rating among centers, and he’s done a great job of limiting some of the best in the game in recent seasons. Even for Embiid, this is a lofty mark to hit, so we’re taking the Under and the favorable odds.

NBA game picks

Spread: Magic -8.5 vs. Cavaliers (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐

After winning just 22 games last season, the Magic have 34 wins with three games to go. The young core, including likely Rookie of the Year Paolo Banchero, has flashed a ton of upside, and despite being eliminated from playoff contention, the Magic have played good basketball as of late.

Orlando has won six of its last 10 and covered in nine of them. All four losses in that span have been by six points or fewer, including Tuesday’s four-point loss to Cleveland. We’re back for the rematch, and we’re counting on Orlando covering for a second straight against the Cavs.

Cleveland has locked up the No. 4 seed in the East, so there’s not a ton of motivation for the visitors on Thursday. That’s why Cleveland has ruled out its entire starting lineup, and Orlando comes into this one as the heavy favorite. The Magic are playing for pride in front of the home crowd and will surely make the most of one of the final three games left for this season.

Check out our NBA Finals odds and NBA MVP odds.

Spread: Suns -7 vs. Nuggets (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Just like the Cavs, the Suns have locked up the No. 4 seed in their conference. Unlike the Cavs, the Suns have some motivation in this one. The Suns have only had Kevin Durant for seven games, and with all of Devin Booker, Chris Paul, and Deandre Ayton having missed time at different points in the season, it’s important that this group gets as many minutes together as possible.

How good has Phoenix been with KD in the lineup? The team is 7-0 straight up and 6-1 ATS, winning by an average margin of 12 points per game. The Nuggets have locked up the top seed in the West, and Nikola Jokic is questionable with a calf injury after missing three games with that injury last week. It wouldn’t be shocking if Denver gave him - or multiple other starters - the night off in a meaningless game.

We’re taking the red-hot Suns to win this one handily at home.

Total: Trail Blazers-Spurs Under 228 (-109 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐

Over the last three weeks, no team has scored fewer points per game than the Trail Blazers with a pitiful 104.9. Portland officially shut down Damian Lillard, and the team unofficially shut down Anfernee Simons, Jerami Grant, and Jusuf Nurkic. The team lists eight players as out, one as doubtful, and two as questionable for Thursday's matchup with San Antonio.

The Spurs rank 25th in points per game over the last three weeks (110.9), but the team has turned on the offense over the last week, averaging the fourth-most points (124.7) in that span. San Antonio’s recent surge in the scoring department is conflated due to some favorable matchups with the Golden State Warriors, Utah Jazz, and Sacramento Kings.

Portland’s offense has been even worse over the last week, as the team has posted just 97.8 points per game. The offense has relied on explosive rookie Shaedon Sharpe who was pulled after 20 minutes Tuesday and is now listed as questionable. This is not going to be a high-scoring game, and we’re targeting the Under.

NBA best bets made 4/6/2023 at 11:05 a.m. ET.

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Written by:
Zachary Hanshew

Zak Hanshew has been covering the NFL and NBA since 2018, writing about fantasy sports, daily fantasy sports, and sports betting. He joined Sportsbook Review for the 2022-23 NBA season and looks forward to his third NBA campaign. Zak has had bylines for over half a dozen publications, most notably Yahoo and NBA.com. As a sports writer, Zak has been recognized for his attention to detail and insight into NBA betting trends. Zak is an avid NBA bettor who loves a prop bet, particularly a favorable combo prop. Of particular interest in the betting space are long shots such as first-basket scorer, but nothing beats a triple-double prop. He loves to target plus-money props with educated and well-researched analysis to back up his picks. Zak holds a Bachelor’s and a Master’s degree from West Virginia University and roots avidly for his Mountaineers.