NBA Player Prop Picks, Predictions for Friday: Under on LeBron James?

Jon Metler examines the NBA player prop market and finds three of his favorite bets.

Jon Metler

Last Updated: January 20, 2023 8:42 AM EST • 4 minute read

We have a busy Friday in the NBA with nine games on the slate – and I know we're all excited to see what Ja Morant has in store for us in Los Angeles. I have selected three of my favorite NBA player props for Friday's games using the latest NBA odds.

The Los Angeles Lakers welcome the best team in the Western Conference to Crypto.com Arena on Friday. The Memphis Grizzles have won 11 consecutive games and will look to extend that streak as 7.5-point favorites against the Lakers.

While LeBron James has been on a tear of late, I'm here to rain on your parade by smashing an Under on the King.

Here are our best NBA player prop picks for Friday (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, and BetRivers; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

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NBA Player Prop Picks for Friday

LeBron James Under 7.5 assists vs. Grizzles (-118 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Bam Adebayo Over 2.5 assists vs. Mavericks (+110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Tre Jones Over 5.5 assists vs. Clippers (-122 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Grizzles vs. Lakers Odds

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NBA Player Props

LeBron James Under 7.5 assists vs. Grizzles (-118 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

I have been tracking James' assist prop for several games, and now is the time to strike.

This play is going to irritate the trends crowd, since James has dropped at least nine dimes in each of his last four games. However, one of those games (vs. Dallas) went into double overtime, and the Houston Rockets and Sacramento Kings aren't necessarily defensive juggernauts.

James is projected to drop 6.8 dimes on Friday, so the Under 7.5 should trade at -170. Based on our price, this bet has a positive expected value of 16%, earning a rating of four stars.

James was trading at a total of 8.5 assists against the Rockets and will now be trading at 7.5 against the Memphis Grizzles, but this is for good reason. In the event that the Under 7.5 (-118) disappears at FanDuel, you should turn your attention to BetRivers, which is also offering lower juice (-121) than most sportsbooks.

Bam Adebayo Over 2.5 assists vs. Mavericks (+110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Adebayo will be facing a Mavericks team that is still missing one of its better interior defensive presences in Maxi Kleber, who is out with a torn hamstring. Christian Wood (fractured thumb) will also sit out Friday's game, leaving the Mavericks even thinner on the interior.

Adebayo is projected to have 3.1 assists on Friday, which means that the Over on his prop of 2.5 should be trading at -140 and not +110. Our price of -140 results in a positive expected value of 22%, which makes this bet a four-star wager.

Adebayo opened at 2.5 (+112) and had been adjusted as short as -118 at FanDuel, so we aren't the only ones interested in betting on this prop. There has been a similar movement at PointsBet where Adebayo is currently trading at -110 to go Over 2.5 assists.

Since BetMGM has been slow to move its Adebayo line, this prop is a very good example of the benefit of price shopping. In contrast to the majority of sportsbooks, BetMGM is still trading the Over 2.5 assists at +110. Pounce on this.

Tre Jones Over 5.5 assists vs. Clippers (-122 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Considering that Jones is a former Duke Blue Devil and I'm a North Carolina Tar Heels fan, I can't say I love betting on the Over here, but value is value.

Jones is flying under the radar in this market, as his production for the Spurs continues to increase despite his assist total remaining static at 5.5.

Jones is projected for seven assists on Friday, well over this total; even if the projection should actually be closer to six dimes, this is sufficient to cash the Over. Based on this projection, Jones should trade at -220 to go Over 5.5 assists, giving this bet a positive expected value of 25% and a rating of four stars.

In terms of player prop betting, BetRivers is a great sportsbook to have in your arsenal – and this Jones prop is a perfect example. In comparison to other sportsbooks, BetRivers' price on Jones shows at least a 3% edge.

(As a side note, I would strongly recommend that you open a BetRivers account as soon as possible, especially with the Super Bowl fast approaching. During last year's Super Bowl, I placed a large number of bets with BetRivers due to their excellent prices on prop bets.)

NBA player prop picks made 01/20/2023 at 10:00 a.m. ET.

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Written by:
Jon Metler

Jon Metler is a Sports Betting Analyst at SportsbookReview.com. Having played, coached, and officiated basketball, he immediately turned his attention to the NBA and College Basketball when he entered the sports betting space. Sports betting has been a part of his life for over 13 years, and he specializes in futures markets and player props, particularly in the NBA. In pursuit of value, he keeps a close eye on movements in the betting markets. He believes strongly in analytics and staying ahead of the curve; let the numbers do the talking. A graduate of the University of Windsor with a degree in Sports Studies, Jon enjoys spending time with his dogs when he isn't watching basketball.