Nuggets vs. Thunder Prediction: Game 1 Odds & Expert Picks

Denver and Oklahoma City start their Round 2 playoff series as we offer our Nuggets vs. Thunder prediction for tonight's Game 1.

Mike Spector

Last updated: May 5, 2025 6:42 AM EDT • 3 min read

Nuggets vs. Thunder Prediction: Game 1 Odds & Expert Picks, May 5 — Pictured: LA Clippers guard James Harden defends Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic. Photo by Ron Chenoy via Imagn Images

The Western Conference playoff series between the No. 1 seed Oklahoma City Thunder and No. 4 seed Denver Nuggets begins with Game 1 tonight. Tipoff from Paycom Center in Oklahoma City is slated for 9:30 p.m. ET (TNT/truTV).

We’re making our best Nuggets vs. Thunder prediction based on the best NBA odds as part of our NBA picks.

The Thunder are anywhere from 9-to-9.5-point betting favorites with -450 moneyline odds and a 225-point total across our best NBA betting sites.

💰 Nuggets vs. Thunder expert picks for Game 1

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✅ Against the spread pick: Nuggets +9.5 (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐
✅ Moneyline pick: Thunder (-420 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
✅ Over/Under pick: Over 225 (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

🏀 Game 1 prediction & best bet

🎯 Score prediction: Thunder 117, Nuggets 110

Game 1 of the Western Conference semifinal series has the ultimate "rest vs. rust" question as a backdrop. Denver plays on just one day of rest after eliminating the Los Angeles Clippers, while Oklahoma City has been off for eight days after sweeping the Memphis Grizzlies.

Instead of wondering what that means from a point-spread perspective, the best value lies with the Over.

Denver and Los Angeles covered the Over by 14.5 points in Saturday's Game 7. The Nuggets impressively scored 120 points despite getting just 16 from a foul-plagued Nikola Jokic. Their balance was on display as six players scored in double figures, with Aaron Gordon's 22 the high.

While the Under has gone 4-1 in Oklahoma City's last five games, these two teams cashed the Over in two of their previous three regular-season meetings despite the total being 240.5 points or more in two of those three games.

Suppose Oklahoma City's rest advantage wins out, and this game turns into a rout, just like its first two home playoff wins, which came by a combined 70 points.

In that case, I like the Over even more, as Denver would likely rest its best defenders to live to fight another day.

The Over cashed in 58.2% of Denver's games (32-23) when it had just one day of rest this season. I expect it to be the right side of the total again tonight.

✅ Best bet: Over 225 (-110 via DraftKings)

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📈 Nuggets vs. Thunder odds

Live updated odds from our best sports betting sites.

🪧 Game 1 opening odds

Opening odds via BetMGM.

Spread: Nuggets +9.5 (-110) | Thunder -9.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Nuggets +340 | Thunder -450
Over/Under: Over 225.5 (-110) | Under 225.5 (-110)

🚑 Nuggets vs. Thunder injury report

Follow the official NBA injury report for more injury news.

📡 How to watch Nuggets vs. Thunder live (Game 1)

📅 Monday, May 5
🕗 9:30 p.m. ET
📍 Paycom Center (Oklahoma City)
📺 TNT/truTV | 🛜 Max

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Written By:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”