NBA Championship Odds & Favorites 2026: Who Can Challenge Dominant Thunder?

I'm exploring the latest NBA championship odds as we approach the All-Star break and the home stretch of the basketball regular season.

There are seven true contenders to win the 2026 NBA title, including the Oklahoma City Thunder, who are the heavy +105 betting favorite. I'm also looking at the most likely NBA Finals matchups and offering my NBA championship prediction.

📊 NBA championship odds 2026

Our NBA championship odds update in real time. See the NBA odds for the best odds on each game during the 2025-26 season.

🏆 Who are the NBA championship favorites?

There are eight teams with odds currently shorter than +2000 to win the NBA championship: Thunder, Nuggets, Celtics, Pistons, Cavaliers, Spurs, Knicks, and Rockets.

Oklahoma City is the favorite to raise the Larry O'Brien Trophy for the second year in a row, but the Thunder will face steep competition from teams in both conferences in their bid to make history.

Thunder still the team to beat

There's no denying that the Thunder remain the best team in basketball. As a result, Oklahoma City has the shortest odds to win the NBA championship at FanDuel, with +105 odds that translate to an implied probability of 48.78%.

Though reigning NBA MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is currently out through the All-Star break with an injury, his abdominal ailment isn't considered serious. What's more serious for OKC is the nagging injuries to Jalen Williams and Isaiah Hartenstein, who have both missed 25-plus games so far this season.

It's that strong core, plus first-time All-Star Chet Holmgren, that led the Thunder to the title last season. Even with those injury issues, however, Oklahoma City still ranks first in both offensive and defensive rating. Top-end talent and depth are both strengths for the Thunder as they look to win their second straight championship.

Nuggets or Spurs the top competition for OKC in the West?

The Nuggets (+600) survived Nikola Jokic's midseason absence, but other injuries (Aaron Gordon, Peyton Watson, Cam Johnson) are exposing Denver's shallow depth. The Nuggets didn't bring in any reinforcements at the trade deadline, but the team pushed the Thunder to seven games in their playoff series a year ago and still has the talent to knock OKC out when healthy.

Meanwhile, the Spurs (+1400) are locked and loaded to make their first Victor Wembanyama-led run in the postseason. Pairing the star Frenchman with guard De'Aaron Fox has worked out even better than expected. The rebuild is over in San Antonio - the time to win is now. The Spurs are 4-1 against the Thunder this season and represent the best chance for the West to send a non-OKC team to the Finals in 2026.

Who is the class of crowded East?

The Eastern Conference is wide-open in 2026, with four teams making a strong case that they could make a run to the Finals.

The Pistons (+1400) currently hold the No. 1 seed in the East amid an incredible transformation from basement-dweller, to pesky also-ran, to legitimate title contender. However, this Detroit core has never won a postseason series, so they may be out of their depth come playoff time.

The biggest question surrounding the Celtics (+1400) is whether or not Jayson Tatum will play this season. Led by Jaylen Brown, Boston has played above expectations without Tatum after he tore his Achilles last playoffs. If Tatum recovers in time for the postseason, the Celtics instantly become the favorite in the East. If not, Boston may not have enough offensive firepower to pull off a deep playoff run.

With Donovan Mitchell's future intentions unclear, the Cavaliers (+1400) went all-in at the trade deadline, trading former All-Star Darius Garland for aging future Hall of Famer James Harden. Mitchell and Garland were never an ideal fit together, so Cleveland is now banking on a Mitchell-Harden combo to put the team over the top. That's quite the gamble, considering Harden can opt out of his contract this summer and has never been known as a strong postseason performer.

The Knicks (+1700) sit fourth among Eastern Conference teams on the NBA championship oddsboard after a tumultuous last couple of months. Despite the panic in New York, the team still ranks near the top of the East standings and is a battle-tested group. Perhaps the Knicks can lean on their NBA Cup-winning experience from December to go all the way this June.

⚔️ Who will play in the NBA Finals?

The most likely NBA Finals matchup, according to the latest betting odds at DraftKings, is Thunder vs. Cavaliers (+800).

That's followed by Thunder vs. Knicks (+850), Thunder vs. Pistons (+950), and Thunder vs. Celtics (+1000). The potential Finals matchup with the shortest odds that doesn't involve the Thunder is Nuggets vs. Cavaliers (+1900).

🔮 Who will win the NBA championship?

The Spurs are way ahead of schedule in their rebuild, and they have the Thunder's number this season.

Victor Wembanyama has owned the matchup against fellow All-Star Chet Holmgren. I think that carries over into the playoffs, and that mismatch sets the tone for a San Antonio postseason victory over Oklahoma City. Once the Spurs pass that major test against the defending champions, there will be no slowing down Wembanyama on his way to winning his first ring. We all know the league will belong to Wemby someday - why not now?

Prediction: Spurs (+1400 via FanDuel)