Lakers vs. Nuggets Predictions, Picks & Odds: Western Conference Finals Begin in Denver

Check out our top predictions for Tuesday's Lakers vs. Nuggets playoff matchup based on the best NBA odds.

Shane Jackson

Last Updated: May 16, 2023 6:02 PM EDT • 5 minute read

The Los Angeles Lakers and Denver Nuggets face off Tuesday night in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals. Read on for our Lakers vs. Nuggets prediction based on the best NBA odds.

The Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Lakers are set to face each other in a best-of-seven series, reminiscent of their encounter in the 2020 Western Conference Finals. In 2020, the Lakers emerged victorious and went on to win the championship. However, the top-seeded Nuggets hold the betting advantage in the NBA Finals odds heading into this matchup.

Game 1, scheduled for Tuesday, will establish the tone for the series. The Lakers won the opening game in the last two rounds before causing upsets. Will Denver maintain its unbeaten home record in the playoffs and secure a 1-0 lead in this series?

Here is our best Lakers vs. Nuggets prediction (odds via Barstool; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Lakers vs. Nuggets prediction

Austin Reaves Over 3.5 assists (-121 via Barstool) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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Jon Metler's NBA best bets and best NBA parlays today are focused on LeBron James but we're going to turn our attention to a less-heralded Lakers star for Game 1.

Austin Reaves will be remembered for his half-court heave that went in just before the half during Game 6 against the Golden State Warriors. It gave the Lakers a double-digit advantage at the break, and perhaps the game could have gone differently if that shot didn't go in.

But Reaves' all-around play to close out the series was extremely impressive. He finished with 23 points, six assists, and five rebounds in the elimination game. The Lakers guard is going to make a lot of money in the offseason, and his performance against the defending champs could be a big reason why.

Early in the series against Golden State, Reaves had a minimal offensive impact that was likely due to him chasing Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson around on defense. He averaged nine points and 2.3 assists per game across the first three outings of the series.

Then, Reaves found his legs and became way more effective offensively. Over the last three games of the series, Reaves averaged 19.6 points and five assists per contest. He cleared this assist prop in all three of those outings.

In the Western Conference Finals, Reaves won't have nearly as taxing of a defensive assignment. I think this leads to a higher usage and better results on the offensive end. Reaves has averaged 4.3 assists per game this postseason, clearing this mark in eight of the 13 games since the Play-In Tournament.

Reaves, who was inserted into the starting lineup back in March, has a hit rate of 73% on this assist line over the last 30 games. He has become a primary creator for the Lakers, with plenty of sets starting with him and the ball. We'll take the chance on his Over at a great price for this four-star pick.

Lakers vs. Nuggets best odds

Barstool (-135)

DraftKings	FanDuel	BetMGM	Caesars	PointsBet	Barstool
Over 3.5 assists	Over 3.5 assists	Over 3.5 assists	Over 3.5 assists	Over 3.5 assists	Over 3.5 assists
-140	-136	-145	-145	-140	-135

While all the best sports betting apps have set this line at 3.5 assists, the price to take the Over has increased at each shop. This should help highlight the value of betting player props early, as we got this at -121 when we placed our bet on Monday.

In this case, Barstool is still offering the best number with a -135 price on the Over. In the likely event you are limited at that shop, however, we would recommend placing this bet at anything better than -140. That means FanDuel is a solid backup option.

If you are looking for a cheaper way to back Reaves, his combo prop of points and assists has been set at 18.5. FanDuel offers the best price in that market with a -111 vig on the Over. Reaves has cleared this number in three straight games and is projected to record 22.94 points and assists in Game 1, per props.cash.

Lakers vs. Nuggets odds

Check out our NBA Finals odds and NBA Finals MVP odds.

Lakers vs. Nuggets odds analysis

The Nuggets are 6.5-point favorites for Game 1, a line that has moved more than a full point at our best NBA betting sites. The market currently projects the Nuggets are about 2-3 points better than the Lakers on a neutral court, depending on how many points they are getting for home-court advantage and the Lakers' first game dealing with the altitude.

The total has also remained at 222.5 since open at the best sportsbooks.

Denver has drawn 67% of the betting action on the spread with the Over drawing a 70% market share.

Lakers vs. Nuggets game info

Date: Tuesday, May 16, 8:30 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Location: Ball Arena, Denver, CO

Lakers-Nuggets pick made 5/15/2023 at 11:50 a.m. ET.

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Written by:
Shane Jackson

Shane Jackson has been writing for Sportsbook Review since 2022, though his passion for sports, writing, and betting runs much longer than that. He graduated from the University of Kansas with a journalism degree in 2017 and has been covering sports ever since, working for MLB.com, Manhattan Mercury, Lawrence Journal-World, WynnBET, Bet Chicago Sports, BetNOLA, and BetMGM. Jackson cares about creating quality sports betting content above all else. He uses a mixture of models, information, film, analysis, and a top-down approach to locate every best bet shared for SBR. He never gives out a pick that he wouldn’t be willing to spend his own money on. Jackson is focused on finding +EV bets on a daily basis for a variety of sports such as NCAAF, NCAAB, NFL, NBA, WNBA, and MLB. He usually bets on props but is willing to wager on a spread or total when there is an edge. Don’t ask him how many bets he has placed on a typical college football Saturday. Jackson doesn’t care if you follow him on social media, but his Twitter account has info on how you can follow his bets through multiple third-party platforms. He just wants you to read all the great work from the SBR team.