NBA Finals Betting Preview: Pacers vs. Thunder Odds, Expert Picks & Predictions

The NBA will crown a new champion soon as the Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder square off in the 2025 NBA Finals, with Game 1 scheduled to tip off tonight at 8:30 p.m. ET (ABC). Our NBA Finals betting preview highlights the latest odds for each team and how they match up in this series.

Oklahoma City (-650 at our best sports betting sites) is the biggest NBA Finals betting favorite since 2018 as it looks to capture the Larry O'Brien Trophy for the first time since relocating from Seattle in 2008 - all while capping off one of the best seasons in NBA history. The Pacers (+525) are looking to capture their franchise's first championship.

Read to the end for our Pacers vs. Thunder expert picks and prediction, including our best bet for the 2025 NBA Finals.

📊 NBA Finals odds: Pacers vs. Thunder

Our 2025 NBA finals odds update in real time based on the odds from our best sports betting apps.

🔢 Pacers vs. Thunder stats

All advanced and traditional statistics from NBA.com; rank based on the regular season.

🔍 Pacers vs. Thunder key matchups & series X-factors

For all of the bellyaching off the court about the TV ratings for this small-market matchup, basketball fans are in for a treat with this Thunder vs. Pacers matchup offering so many fascinating subplots on both ends of the court.

Here are three key matchups and X-factors we'll be watching in this series:

⭐ Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs. Tyrese Haliburton

Where else could we start? The two NBA Finals MVP odds favorites are among the most exciting stars in the sport with Gilgeous-Alexander cashing his NBA MVP odds in the regular season and Haliburton emerging as a postseason hero.

SGA has earned criticism as a "free-throw merchant" en route to MVP honors, but the Thunder star also ranked third in made 2-pointers per game (9.2) while shooting a ridiculous 57.1% inside the arc. He also paced the league in total win shares (16.7) - ending Nikola Jokic's four-year run - and defensive win shares (4.8) while ranking fifth in steals per game (1.7).

That defensive prowess will be tested against Haliburton, who has excelled as a conductor with the ball in his hands but hasn't faced a unit as historically stingy as OKC's. The Thunder's perimeter length could pose issues for Haliburton at the point of attack, while Indiana will need the likes of Haliburton and Andrew Nembhard to frustrate Gilgeous-Alexander to have any shot in this series.

🛡️ Battle of the big men

After losing in last year's conference semifinals, the Thunder were aggressive in the offseason and signed Isaiah Hartenstein - then a part-time center for the New York Knicks - to a three-year, $87 million deal in free agency.

The move was a boon for Hartenstein, who averaged career highs in points (11.2), rebounds (10.7), assists (3.8), and blocks (1.1). More importantly, it helped fully unlock OKC's historic defense alongside Chet Holmgren, who has emerged as an elite stretch big with 1.4 made 3-pointers and 2.2 blocks per game.

Those two could have a field day against the Pacers, who averaged the third-fewest rebounds in the regular season. The key will be how Indiana utilizes its own unique frontcourt combo of Myles Turner and Pascal Siakam, who can both get hot from deep while relying on their size and mobility to lock down the paint.

If this series becomes a battle of extra possessions, OKC's advantage on the boards could decide the outcome. But if the Pacers can lure the Thunder bigs to the perimeter - or take advantage of the space left by a late rotation - the math could be in their favor.

📋 Who wins the transition game?

Both of these coaches will be making their NBA Finals debuts, and the one who best exploits the tempo of this series will likely be hoisting the Larry O'Brien trophy later this month.

Give credit to Pacers coach Rick Carlisle, whose team blitzed the Knicks with fast-break buckets and quick tempo even off made baskets. All of the size and length for New York was rendered moot by Indiana's dogged pursuit of easy looks in transition, and Tom Thibodeau - who was fired on Tuesday - simply had no answers.

I'd expect a better showing from Mark Daigneault, whose suffocating defense has vexed opposing coaches all season long. The Thunder have the length and depth to limit teams in transition, where they've allowed the lowest rate of opponent possessions, and that stingy defense has fueled their own attack off the fast break.

The Pacers have proven effective at limiting transition buckets in this postseason, and Haliburton is a wizard with the ball in his hands. If he can continue to limit turnovers in this series, an upset could be brewing. But if OKC can keep pace with Indiana and turn this into a half-court slog? Good luck.

🏀 MORE: Thunder team preview | Pacers team preview

🏆 Expert prediction: Who wins the 2025 NBA Finals?

Look, it's hard to go against history. The Thunder posted the second-best net rating in NBA history, and the other four teams in the top five all won the title. OKC's odds to win this series (-700) - which represent an 87.5% chance - are tied for the seventh-shortest of all time; the other six won it all.

I have a tremendous amount of respect for these Pacers, who play a cohesive style of basketball that accentuates the talents of their starting five and force opponents to match their impressive depth. The only problem? Oklahoma City is deeper, more athletic, and simply more skilled on both ends of the court.

The Thunder have lost a combined four games in their last two series, so I won't be surprised when Indiana's pace and outside shooting earn it a win - likely in Game 3 or Game 4 at home. But I fully expect Oklahoma City to shut the door in Game 5 and clinch the city's first-ever championship in front of its fans.

 ✅ Best bet: Thunder in five games (+250 via DraftKings)

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🤖 NBA Finals AI prediction & picks for every game

The following has been generated fully using ChatGPT's latest and most advanced model, which relies on real-time search and logic. These should be viewed as entertainment or a supplementary data point for your NBA picks.

• Series prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder 4, Indiana Pacers 1
• Finals MVP winner: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC)
• Average scoring margin: Thunder +5.4 PPG
• Key trends:
• OKC held Indiana under 105 points in 4 of 5 games
• Thunder starters outscored Pacers starters by an average of 13.8 PPG
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 31.2 PPG in the series

🧠 Pacers vs. Thunder series projections

The 2025 NBA Finals are projected to end in five games, with the Oklahoma City Thunder overpowering the Indiana Pacers through balanced scoring, elite defense, and a superstar leap from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Oklahoma City’s combination of defensive versatility, rim protection, and halfcourt execution stifled Indiana’s pace-driven offense, while their size and length exploited the Pacers' limited rim deterrence.

Though Tyrese Haliburton delivered standout playmaking efforts, Indiana struggled to string together stops and relied too heavily on shot variance from role players. Meanwhile, the Thunder’s core trio of Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, and Chet Holmgren dictated the series tempo and created matchup problems across every game.

The result? A dominant 4-1 series win that cements OKC as the NBA’s newest dynasty-in-the-making.

👉 Check out our full NBA Finals AI predictions, including stat projections and game recaps for every matchup.

🗓️ 2025 NBA Finals schedule: Pacers vs. Thunder

• Game 1: Thursday, June 5 at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City (8:30 p.m. ET, ABC)
• Game 2: Sunday, June 8 at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City (8 p.m. ET, ABC)
• Game 3: Wednesday, June 11 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis (8:30 p.m. ET, ABC)
• Game 4: Friday, June 13 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis (8:30 p.m. ET, ABC)
• Game 5: Monday, June 16 at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City (8:30 p.m. ET, ABC)*
• Game 6: Thursday, June 19 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis (8:30 p.m. ET, ABC)*
• Game 7: Sunday, June 22 at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City (8 p.m. ET, ABC)*

* if necessary

NBA Finals betting insights

Here are some NBA Finals betting insights from BetMGM as of Monday, June 9.

• The spread for Game 1 has moved from -4.5 in favor of the Thunder to -5.5, with 61% of the bets and 64% of the handle on Oklahoma City
• The total for the opening game of the series has shifted from 227.5 to 228.5, with 69% of the bets and 86% of the handle on the Over
• There's unsurprisingly been significant movement tied to the NBA Finals MVP odds since the market opened, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander moving from +900 to -500, and Tyrese Haliburton shifting from +8000 to +650
• Haliburton is getting the highest ticket percentage at 17.3%, while Gilgeous-Alexander is receiving the highest handle at 20.7%

💡 More NBA Finals expert picks & analysis

• NBA Finals betting preview
• Thunder NBA Finals preview
• Pacers NBA Finals preview
• Pacers vs. Thunder player props
• Pacers vs. Thunder parlay picks
• NBA Finals AI predictions

💵 Best NBA Finals betting sites

Want to bet on the NBA Finals? Check out the best NBA betting sites and best sportsbook promos for Pacers vs. Thunder:

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