NBA Championship Odds & Predictions: Will Favorite Thunder Repeat and Win NBA Finals?

After winning their first title since moving to Oklahoma City, the Thunder begin the 2025-26 season as the NBA championship odds favorites to repeat.

The problem is, the NBA has as much parity as ever before. No team has won back-to-back titles since the Golden State Warriors in 2018. Seven different squads have won the championship in the past seven years.

Will that streak continue this year? Let’s take a look at my favorite best bets in this market.

📊 NBA championship odds 2025-26

NBA Finals odds update live in real time; see the latest NBA odds for every game.

🏆 Who will win the NBA Finals?

Check out all of our NBA picks entering the regular season.

Oklahoma City Thunder (+250)

Recent history be damned. The Thunder are the best team in basketball, with their entire core entering their prime and a stockpile of draft picks to make any necessary improvements.

Oklahoma City’s net rating last year (+12.8) was the second-best clip of all time, trailing only the Chicago Bulls (+13.4 in 1995-96). There is a reason why the Thunder have the highest win total (62.5) since the Golden State Warriors had the same over/under in 2018-19.

The Western Conference will be a gauntlet again this season, and the Thunder were pushed to seven games twice last postseason. But I still believe they are the obvious pick to win the championship, as evidenced by their +250 price tag when no other team is better than 5/1.

💰 Best bet to win NBA Finals

Our NBA player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market (including NBA Finals odds) across legal sportsbooks in your area.

Cleveland Cavaliers (+800)

The path to the NBA Finals is much easier in the Eastern Conference, which is why the Cavaliers are the better bet in the championship market. 

According to Dunks & Threes, Cleveland has a 13.8% chance of winning it all. That is the second-highest projection in the league behind the Thunder. No other East team is more than 8.8% to win the title.

The Cavs were eliminated in the semifinals as the No. 1 seed, but they bring everyone back and are motivated to make a deeper run. I like this +800 value (11.11% implied probability), earning $80 on a $10 wager.

🎯 Best NBA Finals long shot

Follow along with the rest of our NBA analysis for more futures picks.

Golden State Warriors (+2700)

For the first time in recent memory, the Warriors appear to be flying under the radar as a legitimate championship threat. If what they showed us in the back half of last season is any indication, we might be getting one final championship ride for Golden State.

After trading for Jimmy Butler in early February, the Warriors went 23-8 over their final 31 games. They posted the third-best net rating and the best defensive rating over that span. They upset the Houston Rockets in the opening round before taking a 1-0 lead over the Minnesota Timberwolves in the conference semifinals.

We will never know if the Warriors were good enough to make a deep run, as a Stephen Curry injury led to a series loss to the Wolves. But I’m betting on their championship potential, and I don’t think this +2700 price tag will last if they treat the regular season seriously from the start.