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NBA Player Props & Best Bets Today: Schedule, Picks for Sunday

Zachary Hanshew

Last Updated: March 10, 2024 9:42 AM EDT • 4 min 22 sec read.

Chet Holmgren #7 of the Oklahoma City Thunder goes for a block as we look at our NBA player props and best bets for Sunday.
Jeff Green #32 of the Houston Rockets puts up a shot against Chet Holmgren #7 of the Oklahoma City Thunder. Photo by Joshua Gateley/Getty Images via AFP.

Young players are the focus of Sunday’s nine-game slate, and our NBA player props and best bets for Sunday are based on the best NBA odds.

It’s a jam-packed, nine-game slate in the Association, and as usual, we have four NBA player props comprising our best bets to help you profit!

Trey Murphy has been lights out from beyond the arc since the All-Star break, and he’ll look to stay hot when the New Orleans Pelicans visit the Atlanta Hawks. Bam Adebayo has hit a rough patch as a scorer, but he and the Miami Heat are in a great spot on Sunday as they host the flailing Washington Wizards.

Paolo Banchero and the Orlando Magic are also in a great spot as they host the Indiana Pacers. Finally, we’ll turn to rookie sensation Chet Holmgren and a defensive prop as the Oklahoma City Thunder face the Memphis Grizzlies.

Many of these matchups are likely to influence the NBA Finals odds and Play-In Tournament odds.

Here are our NBA player props and best bets for Sunday (NBA picks based on odds via our best NBA betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Sunday’s NBA best bets

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Sunday’s NBA schedule and odds

(Odds via FanDuel)

Sunday’s NBA player props

Trey Murphy Over 3.5 three-pointers vs. Hawks (+155 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

No one’s been hotter from beyond the arc since the All-Star break than Murphy, who’s drained 32 triples over his last eight games. Over his last five outings, he’s hit the Over on this prop three times, including 10 made 3-pointers on Tuesday against the Toronto Raptors.

Murphy is averaging a career-high 2.8 triples per game this season, and in 18 games with at least 28 minutes played, he’s averaging 3.7 made threes. Atlanta allows the fourth-most three-point makes and the third-highest three-point percentage, which is great news for Murphy. He’s averaging a career-high 7.5 attempts per game and knocking them down at a 37.4% clip.

The standard prop for Murphy’s threes is 2.5, but the juice is far too high for our liking. Instead, we’ll take the alt threes for plus money.

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Bam Adebayo Over 21.5 points vs. Wizards (+100 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

The big man has been in a big slump recently, as he’s averaged just 12.3 points per game on 14-for-40 shooting across his last three outings. Prior to his disastrous three-game stretch, Adebayo hit the Over on this line in five of six outings. He is averaging 19.9 points per game this season, and he’s hit the Over on this line in 23 of 53 appearances.

Washington allows the most points per game to opponents, and that includes the second-most points in the paint. The Wizards also allow the most rebounds, which means Adebayo can have his way underneath and clean up with offensive boards and second-chance buckets.

Adebayo is enjoying a strong season, but oddsmakers are underestimating him based on his recent struggles. We can get the best line at FanDuel, where it’s being offered at even money.

Paolo Banchero Over 24.5 points vs. Pacers (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The second-year man has averaged 25.6 points across his last five games, hitting the Over on this prop in three of them. He’s averaging 22.9 points per game on the season, and he’s scored at least 25 in 24 of 62 games. He’s in a great spot to replicate that success against the Pacers.

Indiana allows the second-most points overall and the third-most on the road. The Pacers comfortably lead all teams in paint points surrendered, and they’ve been even worse on the road. This matchup is a pace-up spot for Orlando with a friendly frontcourt defense that should benefit Banchero. The implied probability of this line is 52.4%, but Banchero has hit the mark in three of his last five games, including two in a row. 

We’re also willing to climb the ladder here to 29.5 points. Banchero delivered 34 points in his last matchup with the Pacers, and we can get the best odds for the alt total at bet365, where it's offered at +250.

Chet Holmgren Over 2.5 blocks vs. Grizzlies (+155 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Talk about a juiced prop! Holmgren’s line for blocks is set at 1.5 across our best sports betting sites, but the odds are -170 or shorter, making it a bad bet. If we go up by just one block, we get plus-money odds. That’s a no-brainer.

Holmgren is averaging 2.5 blocks per contest this season, and he’s hit the Over on this line in 28 of 63 matchups overall. The Grizzlies rank third in the NBA in fewest blocks allowed, and Holmgren swatted seven against Memphis on Dec. 18. The big man hasn’t hit this mark in any of his last five games, but he did so in five of six before that. We’ll take Holmgren at home for plus-money odds. Holmgren has hit this in 44.4% of games, but the +155 odds give an implied probability of 39.2%, meaning we’re getting this prop at a discount.

NBA best bets made Sunday at 3:45 a.m. ET

Here are our best NBA betting sites:

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Written By:
Zachary Hanshew
Zak is a lucky husband and blessed father of four. He’s been writing about sports since 2018 with prior stops at FantasyPros, RotoWire, and FantasyLabs. In addition to Sportsbook Review, you can find his work at NBC Sports Edge, Yahoo, and OwnersBox. When he’s not writing, Zak can be found playing the guitar, hanging out with his family, coaching his son’s basketball team, or laughing way too hard at old Simpsons episodes.